ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for August 7th, 2020
ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary-cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop-based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.
Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two-to-four props to win cash. Two correct selections and you win a 3.6x multiplier, three correct predictions earn you a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks give you an 11x multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.
The Contest Lobby is where things really get interesting. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You must make two additional picks to ensure fairness, just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.
Fantasy sports players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing their competing options. This is most pronounced for NBA and NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop-based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right.
Instead of providing my full lineup, we will instead be shifting to highlighting the top plays to consider. These are Contest Lobby props that are good enough that they would be strong considerations if offered in the Props Lobby. Let’s dig in.
Joel Embiid over 3.5 assists (o 85/u 115)
- Averaging 3.2 assists on the season
- Averaging four assists per game in the bubble
- Recorded two assists in his lone contest against the Magic this season
- Ben Simmons is injured
Joel Embiid is destined to see his usage rate rise with Ben Simmons ruled out indefinitely. Embiid and Simmons have never really meshed on or off the court, due largely in part to the 76ers’ insistence on playing Simmons at point guard for the majority of his career. They switched Simmons to power forward to hide his flaws, but that also meant sending Al Horford to the bench. Simmons, who needs the ball in his hands to be effective, predictably struggled at the four. Embiid is arguably better without Simmons on the court, as he becomes the focal point of the offense. With both Embiid and Simmons on the court, the 76ers have a net rating of +0.6. With Simmons off the court and Embiid on the court, they soar to a +12.3 net rating.
The 3.5 assists line seems like a given for a player who has averaged 3.2 assists per game on the season and will now enjoy an expanded role. TriveFantasy agrees, as we get only 85 points for a successful over prediction, but 115 for the under. He has put up four assists per game in the bubble and should hit at least four this evening. That said, the juice is actually on the under at the books, so there’s some reason to believe that he will fall under four dimes. The over is still the lean here based on the numbers, but if you need a point maker in the Contest Lobby tournament (as opposed to a head to head), the under is worth a flier as well.
Rui Hachimura under 21.5 points (o 100/u 100)
- Averaging 11.5 points per game in the bubble
- Averaging 30+ minutes per game in the bubble
- Averaging 11 shots per game in the bubble
- Shooting .363 in the bubble
This is the type of line that makes me wish that ThriveFantasy had these types of value lines in the Props Lobby. For context, Rui Hachimura is listed at 21.5 points + rebounds in the Props Lobby versus 21.5 points alone in the Contest Lobby. The Wizards’ leading healthy scorer heading into the bubble, we expected Hachimura to step up as the Wizards’ top option in the bubble. After the first game that appeared to be the case, as he put up 21 points. However, he fell apart from the field in the following contests. He now sits at a putrid .363 shooting during the restart. Rui has averaged 11.5 points per game in the bubble, but he is more than capable of putting up 22 or more points if he gets hot from the field. He has averaged just 11 shots per game in the bubble and will need to be more aggressive both in getting his shot up and in getting to the line in order to hit this number. The total is just 14.5 at most sportsbooks. Take the 100 points and the under.
Kyle Lowry over 6.5 assists (o 75 points/u 125 points)
- Averaging 7.6 assists per game on the season
- Averaging seven assists per game in the bubble
- Averaging 7.3 assists per game in three contests against Boston this season
- Over 6.5 assists in four of last six contests
- Under 6.5 assists in two of his last three (6, 5, 10)
Kyle Lowry has been excellent once again this season. The 7.6 assists per game he has averaged this season is the second-highest mark of his career, and it’s behind only his rate of 8.7 per game from last year. His mark of 19.7 points per game is also the third-highest of his career. Lowry has gone under 6.5 assists in two of his three bubble contests, but thanks to a 10-assist game in his last contest, he is averaging seven assists per game in the bubble. Lowry has gone over 6.5 assists in four of his last six contests and is averaging 7.3 dimes per game against Boston this season. The under has some appeal based on his bubble performances and the 125 points. However, the over appears to be the smarter play in a contest that Lowry will need to be in top form for if the Toronto Raptors want to secure the chicory.