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Tier-Based Drafting (2020 Fantasy Football)

Tier-Based Drafting (2020 Fantasy Football)

We all know the owners who will show up to a draft with a top-500 list that is generic and out of date. They walk in with a stale list and a fantasy magazine from June, completely unaware that they are already at a major disadvantage.

If you can’t spot that person in your draft, I’ve got some bad news: You might be that person. The good news is we have all been there at some point. Years ago, when I first started playing fantasy football on a more competitive level, I was that guy, and the results were predictably bad. Over time, I have refined my process and replaced the bulky and cumbersome top-500 list with something much clearer and more concise: player tiers.

Tier-based drafting is an effective strategy that can help simplify things for you on draft night. While you still have a ranking of the top players, you can modify your rankings to account for different types of scoring and even the number of teams in your league. This will accomplish a couple of things, so let’s take a look at how to best use this strategy.

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Player Familiarity
Since fantasy drafts can vary wildly from league to league, identifying players in a tier-based system forces you to make an active choice on how to value players. Drilling down each position will free you from the chains of looking at players from a macro standpoint. This will help you avoid the sunken cost of drafting a third-tier running back over a first-tier receiver, but there is another reason for this as well. When using a tier-based method, you become more familiar with player value in the middle rounds. Becoming familiar with those players you will consider in these rounds will give you an edge over your less-informed league mates.

Positional Tier Values Are Different
For fantasy purposes, the wide receiver position is probably the deepest in the game outside of quarterback. This means you could have over 30 players ranked that could be in the mix for being a WR1 or WR2. Most people make the mistake of comparing two players in a vacuum when trying to determine who to draft. This is the primary issue of drafting from a top-500 list. Placing players into tiers shows where a player should be ranked relative to other players at his position. This is what should matter the most because picking a player at one position means you won’t get one at another.

Here is an arbitrary example: You are in the middle rounds and see Raheem Mostert is available. He is the last running back you have in a tier as a potential RB2. You also see on your positional tiers board there are five available wide receivers that you also have ranked as WR2. Although guys like DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and DJ Chark would be ranked ahead of Mostert on almost every top-500 fantasy list, it makes more sense to wait and draft on a WR2 in the next round.

The Final Word
Ranking players in tiers doesn’t have to be hard; in fact, it gives you a lot of flexibility as an owner. Ranking players on somewhat of a sliding scale may help you to see where your own biases exist too. I believe running a projection based on your scoring system can help, but regardless, a tier should be made up of players who will perform similarly to the others. For illustration, here are my top three running back tiers in a PPR format:

Tier 1 (Average 22+ PPG)
Christian McCaffery (RB – CAR)

Tier 2 (Average 18-20 PPG)
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)

Tier 3 (Average 15-19 PPG)

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

As you can see, not all tiers are created equal, and you may find yourself moving players around after your initial projections run. You may have noticed I bumped the projection for the ceiling of players in Tier 3 just above the floor for the players in Tier 2. I do that because I believe Barkley, Kamara, and Elliott have a safer floor than a player like Derrick Henry, though Henry may possess a higher weekly ceiling.

The bottom line is that no matter how you choose to structure your tiers, they can help you be clearer and more concise on draft night. Be prepared to pivot, but go into your draft knowing where you value players at specific positions over others. And remember: Having a plan that is updated with fresh projections will almost always give you an edge over your league mates. Best of luck drafting over the next few weeks!

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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.

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