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Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 3 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 3 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Analyzing Vegas’ odds is a helpful strategy all DFS players should look to take advantage of. It can help when weighing competing lineup options for any given week. A high over/under total can clue us into contests Vegas projects to have a high combined score. More opportunities for scoring can lead to increased opportunities for fantasy points.

Small point spreads show us which games Vegas projects to be competitive. Competitive contests suggest that the game script will not force either team to abandon the run or the pass. Large point spreads, on the other hand, suggest that the team with a large lead may look to run out the clock in the second half, or in some cases rest their starters as the game winds down. For the team that is behind it means that they may be forced to abandon the run in favor of being more aggressive through the air in an effort to put points on the board quicker.

High total contests can also alert us to potential chalky plays. While analyzing Vegas odds should not be the only tool you use to decide on roster options, it should, along with a host of other variables, play a correlative factor in your decision making.

This week we will take a look at the contests with the highest over/under totals on the slate. These two battles are sure to have some chalky plays, but need to be dissected nonetheless.

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At quarterback, we have two very intriguing options. First, we have Kyler Murray. Murray is on his way to a breakout fantasy season. DeAndre Hopkins has given him a true number one receiver, but he has been less than stellar as a passer with just 258 passing yards and one touchdown per game. However, his 158 rushing yards placed him ninth in the league, overall, while his three rushing touchdowns ties him for third. His new weekly rushing upside has propelled him to the elite category, but that also means his salary has risen in unison. 

Matthew Stafford has had his struggles without top receiver Kenny Golladay. He has been only an average DFS asset without Golladay and is not a suggested play if his star wideout cannot go. This contest has a chance to fall well under the number without Golladay, so do not get caught up in the total when it comes to the Lions franchise quarterback. Even if he does return, Stafford is best left as a fade outside of the confines of a double-digit entry strategy. 

At running back Kenyan Drake has been about what we thought he’d be. He has seen 18 carries per game but is averaging just 4.06 yards per attempt, and has just four total targets over two contests. However, he is due for a breakout game and is facing a Lions defense that has relinquished the third-most fantasy points per game. He is going to be chalk due to playing on the favorite in a high total contest but is worth a look for multi-entry managers.

The Detroit Lions backfield continues to present more questions than answers. D’Andre Swift is clearly still adjusting to the speed of the NFL on his rushing attempts but has seemingly emerged as the receiving back after hauling all five of his Week 2 targets for 60 receiving yards. 

Kerryon Johnson found the end zone in Week 2 but is still too unreliable touch wise to trust on a weekly basis. Adrian Peterson continues to be the top runner on the team but has two young and talented running backs seeing more snaps. 

Swift saw 34 percent of the snaps in Week 2, Johnson saw 32 percent, and AP saw just 25 percent. The snap share was likely affected by gameflow, as we saw Johnson and AP flip snap rates in Week 1 when the Lions led for three quarters. This situation is better off avoided unless you want to throw a dart on Swift having his breakout game. 

Wide receiver is where the fun begins. On the Detroit Lions, Kenny Golladay is the top DFS option, if healthy. He will likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, but is still worth kicking the tires on due to projected target volume. 

Marvin Jones is a no-go if Golladay sits. He has been horrific in his two games filling in as the Lions top option. He did find the end zone once but has otherwise managed just four receptions and 34 receiving yards per game. 

Danny Amendola has been consistently involved target wise with Golladay out and is worth a multi lineup stab if the star receiver misses another contest. Quintez Cephus has been seeing looks as the number three receiver with Golladay out, but likely sees a dramatic snap reduction if he returns. An intriguing dynasty asset, Cephus is nothing more than a contrarian flier for multiple GPP lineup setters. Marvin Hall is a fade.

First in the NFL in targets and receptions through two games, Deandre Hopkins is fifth in receiving yards. Hopkins is a target hog who is worth heavy consideration for single lineup setters. The insane total for this contest only increases his appeal, but he would be a strong option even if the total was set at 44. 

Larry Fitzgerald has seen 5.5 receptions per game on the season but has managed just 42 receiving yards per game. The high total makes him worth a look. He is coming off a seven target Week 2 but is more of an option for multiple lineup setters. Christian Kirk is a hard fade. He does have nine targets through two games but has managed just 1.5 receptions for 28.5 receiving yards per game.

Arizona is showing some love to tight end Dan Arnold, but he has yet to produce at a notable level. This high total makes him worth a multi lineup stab but he is best left on the fade pile for those who will be setting a single lineup. 

T.J. Hockenson will look to post his third consecutive strong showing against the Cardinals team he exploded on for six receptions, 131 receiving yards, and one touchdown as a rookie. Hock has averaged 4.5 receptions and 59 receiving yards, with his lone touchdown coming in Week 1. He is worth consideration for this weekend’s contests.

Russell Wilson has appeared to take it to another level in 2020. His excellence has been taken for granted for years, but with D.K. Metcalf taking a leap, Wilson has as well. With Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers all off the main slate, Wilson is the undisputed top option at quarterback. And that is before factoring the weak secondary of their opponent, and the insane total assigned to this contest, into the equation. The number one point producer at both FanDuel and DraftKings, Wilson deserves strong lineup consideration. 

Dak Prescott has averaged 358 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game but has made himself a top-five DFS quarterback thanks to his 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Dak is worth a look despite the high salary due to the elite fantasy level he is playing at. The Cowboys are likely to be trailing in this one, forcing the Cowboys to take to their air.

The Seattle Seahawks are giving Carlos Hyde enough work to cap Chris Carson‘s upside. Carson has been excellent in the passing game. He had hauled in all nine of his targets for 4.5 receptions and 40.5 receiving yards per game with three total receiving touchdowns. He has been disappointing in the rushing department with just 11.5 carries per game on four yards per carry (46.5 rushing yards per game). 

Carlos Hyde has the team’s lone rushing touchdown but has averaged just 22.5 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. He has just two total receptions over two contests. Hyde is a hard fade for Week 3. 

Ezekiel Elliott has been excellent this season. He is averaging 92.5 rushing yards per game, 4.5 receptions, 32 receiving yards per game, and 1.5 touchdowns per contests. Two of his scores have come on the ground, with the other coming through the air. He is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry, but the threat his supporting cast presents should start to free him up for some big plays sooner rather than later. Potential gamescript (the Cowboys are underdogs) limits Elliott’s appeal some, but he remains one of the top DFS options if you can find a way to squeeze him in your lineup. 

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett deserve strong stack consideration. Both of these receivers have been excellent this season with Tyler Lockett averaging eight targets per game, 7.5 receptions, and 79.5 receiving yards with a receiving touchdown. Lockett is worth weekly consideration at this point as it is clear that he and Metcalf can co-exist as dual target hogs

D.K. Metcalf has averaged seven targets, four receptions, 93.5 receiving yards, and one touchdown per game thus far on the season. Metcalf deserves weekly consideration until his salary catches up to his role and production. Start Metcalf where possible. 

Amari Cooper leads the Cowboys receivers room with 23 targets for 16 receptions. His 90.5 receiving yards per game also leads, the team but like the rest of the receivers on the team, he has yet to score a touchdown. Cooper deserves consideration for this weekend but is likely to see a heavy dose of talented corner Shaquil Griffin. Keep that in mind when deciding between competing options. 

CeeDee Lamb has arguably been the most impressive receiver on the team. He has averaged 5.5 receptions and 82.5 receiving yards per game, with 86 of his 165 receiving yards coming after the catch. Lamb is a highly intriguing option due to the fact that his salary has yet to catch up to his production or talent. 

Michael Gallup is a fade. He has been, for all intents and purposes, the Cowboys number three receiver in terms of production and on-field impact. He has hauled in just five of his 10 targets for 108 receiving yards, giving him a 2.5 reception, 54 receiving yard per game average. 

While his on-field play has not been great, his stats have been passable. Dalton Schultz has recorded 10 receptions for 99 receiving yards and one touchdown in two contests. Blake Bell is stealing some snaps and targets, but Schultz is the clear leader in the tight end room with Blake Jarwin injured. The high total gives him some touchdown appeal but having to deal with Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams does not scream recipe for success. 

There have only been eight tight end targets through two weeks of play. Four of them have gone to Greg Olsen. Olsen brought one of them in for a touchdown but appeared to be in Wilson’s doghouse after dropping an easy first down against the Patriots. Will Dissly is the number two with Jacob Hollister looking like a distant third. The whole group is a fade despite the high total.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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