Football is back! We’ve got some great games in store for us this weekend. The slate includes a classic NFC North duel between the Vikings and Packers and what should be a high-scoring battle between the Seahawks and the Falcons.
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 220-person $5,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 40% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. Hopefully, I can keep the momentum rolling into the football season!
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Best High-Priority Prop Play
Chris Carson (SEA): UNDER 74.5 Passing Yards
No, that is not a typo. Carson has a line posted for his passing yards, and it’s set at 74.5. Since there are already several lineups entered in this contest, I don’t think that NHA can go back and change it, so I recommend that you exploit this mistake for Week 1.
Carson plays running back, so he will not throw the ball. And if he does, he won’t pass for over 74.5 yards. Next.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Julio Jones (ATL): OVER 90.5 Receiving Yards
We’re back to normal with this line. In 2019, Jones finished eight of his 15 games above this threshold. That includes his one game against Seattle, in which he caught 10 passes for 152. Most of these yards came in garbage-time with Matt Schaub under center, but hey, it still counts.
Jones averaged 93 receiving yards per game last year, and he averaged 104.5 the year before. He finished with more than 91 yards or more in 11 of his 16 games that year. Jones has seen a noticeable uptick in usage since Dirk Koetter replaced Steve Sarkisian as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator.
The logic behind this pick (which I’ll apply to one of my lower-priority plays below) is simple — you’re betting on the Falcons to pass a lot. If they do, Julio should catch enough passes to clear this total. You don’t Atlanta to play Seattle close, so even if the Seahawks blow them out again, there’s still a good chance that this line cashes. That’s an advantage over some of the rushing lines on this slate.
Davante Adams (GB): OVER 6.5 Receptions
Who else does Rodgers have to throw to? I have little faith in Jace Sternberger, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, so I expect the success of Green Bay’s passing game will rest in Adams’ hands. Literally.
Adams caught 6.9 passes per game last year, and he caught at least seven in eight of his 12 games. A hit rate of 75 percent isn’t bad, and it gets even better when you treat Vikings games in isolation. Adams caught 13 passes against Minnesota in Week 16, and he caught seven in Week 2 — that’s good enough for a 100 percent hit rate.
If the Packers had added another pass-catcher in the offseason, I might have to rethink this pick. But they didn’t, so let’s keep it simple and pick Adams to hit the over.
Marquise Brown (BAL): UNDER 4.5 Receptions
Brown has hit this over twice in his 14 career games. That gives the under an 85.7 percent win rate! Yes, I’m aware that Brown was hurt last year, and I’ve heard that he’s added 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason. Big whoop.
I have faith that Brown can become a more reliable receiver for Baltimore, but they’re still a run-first offense. The Ravens attempted the most rushing plays (596) and the fewest passes (440) last year, so Brown will need to get lucky if he wants to clear this line.
On the flip side, the Browns won’t have two of their best corners in Greedy Williams and Kevin Johnson. While star corner Denzel Ward should still line up against Brown on most plays, the Ravens could also scheme him open more frequently. I might have had this line a bit higher if I weren’t worried about Cleveland’s secondary.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Baker Mayfield (CLE) / Matt Ryan (ATL): OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Both of these quarterbacks could easily throw picks in Week 1. They both take on formidable secondaries with ball-hawking players (Marcus Peters for Baltimore, Quandre Diggs for Seattle), and they should both throw lots of passes (Cleveland because they’ll be trailing, Atlanta because Koetter is a pass-heavy coordinator).
Also, both of these quarterbacks struggled with interceptions last year. Mayfield tossed 1.3 of them per game, and he threw a pick in both of his games against Baltimore (one to Marlon Humphrey and one to Maurice Canady). In fact, he threw at least one an interception in 13 of his 16 starts last year. And while Ryan threw just 0.9 picks per game, the Falcons’ pass-happy scheme means that there’s always a good chance for him to throw one.
Russell Wilson (SEA) / Aaron Rodgers (GB): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
In contrast, these two accurate passers should be able to avoid throwing any picks this week. They both line up against vulnerable secondaries that lost key pieces in the offseason (Desmond Trufant for Atlanta, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mackensie Alexader for Minnesota), and they both play for teams that should emphasize the run.
Wilson threw just five picks last year, and Rodgers threw only four. The Falcons failed to pick off Wilson in their one matchup last season, and I don’t expect them to pull it off this weekend, either. Minnesota’s Anthony Harris was able to pick off Rodgers in Week 16 of last year, but that was the first time the Vikings had picked him off since Week 2 of 2016. Don’t expect Rodgers to let them get two in a row.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
