Best NFL Plays for Week 2 at No House Advantage
Week 2 is here, and I’m looking forward to this slate. We’ll see a high-scoring game between Atlanta and Dallas, and we’ll also get a sloppy affair between Chicago and Detroit.
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 290-person $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m 7-1 after Week 1, too, so I’m hoping to keep the momentum rolling!
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Matt Ryan (ATL): OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Julio Jones (ATL): OVER 91.5 Passing Yards
Ryan should pop off against the Cowboys this week. The posted point total sits at 53.5, per the BettingPros consensus odds, which gives the Falcons an implied total of 23.25. That’s room for three touchdowns, and I’m expecting Ryan to score at least two of them.
Matty Ice averaged 1.73 touchdowns per game in 2019, and he threw at least two of them in nine games. He started 2020 off with a two-touchdown performance against the Seattle Seahawks, too. The Cowboys held Jared Goff to zero touchdowns last week, but the Rams are a run-first team, and that’s the exact opposite of Dirk Koetter’s offensive scheme.
I would recommend pairing Ryan’s touchdowns line with Jones’ passing yards line.That’s because a touchdown pass to Jones would help both of these clear, so you’re killing two birds with one stone.
Jones averaged 93 yards per game last year, but he only cleared the over in seven of his 15 games. That said, he just posted 157 yards in Week 1, so he’ll have a shot at this over as long as it’s a pass-heavy game script.
Amari Cooper (DAL): OVER 5.5 Receptions
I expect this game to be high scoring, so it makes sense to bring it back with at least one Cowboys line. I wasn’t a fan of either of Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliott’s lines, so I think this one is the safest play, especially with Blake Jarwin sidelined.
Cooper caught 10 passes despite playing against Jalen Ramsey last week. It looks like the Cowboys intend to feature him this year, and even though they have Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, he’s a good bet to clear this line.
To be fair, Cooper only averaged 4.94 receptions per game last year. He’ll need to catch at least six for this line to catch, and his success will depend upon the Falcons’ ability to stay in this game and keep the Cowboys’ passing offense on the field.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
D.J. Moore (CAR): OVER 5.5 Receptions
Moore lagged behind teammate Robby Anderson in receiving yards last week, but he is still the clear-cut WR1. He led the team in targets with nine, and Teddy Bridgewater will have to keep throwing the ball to keep this game against Tom Brady close.
And despite Moore’s disappointing Week 1, his 2019 averages and head-to-head stats support this play. Moore averaged 5.8 catches per game last year, and that was with an injured Cam Newton and Kyle Allen throwing him the ball. He also averaged eight catches per game against the Buccaneers last year.
Most importantly, Moore cleared this line in 10 of his 15 games last season. A pair of one-catch performances, one with Will Grier at quarterback, torpedo Moore’s overall averages. This line would be a high-priority play if I didn’t think that stacking Atlanta and Dallas was a better idea.
Marvin Jones Jr. (DET): OVER 4.5 Receptions
Jones didn’t do much without Kenny Golladay last week, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rebound in Week 2. I seriously doubt that fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus’ massive target share is an every-week thing, and Jones should be able to torch a Packers secondary that just allowed Adam Thielen to catch six passes for 110 yards and two scores.
Jones averaged 4.77 catchers per game in 2019 — and that was with Golladay in the lineup. He averaged seven targets per game, and he caught just over 68 percent of his looks. And while he failed to clear this line in last week’s game against the Bears, Jones still earned eight targets, so clearing this line will be a question of efficiency, not opportunity.
Expect Matthew Stafford to look his way often this week.
Best Lower-Priority Prop Play
Daniel Jones (NYG): OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Danny Dimes threw two picks last week against the Steelers. He’s a gunslinger under center, and he averaged 0.92 interceptions per game last year. While three multi-pick games skew those numbers, he’s still a reasonably safe bet to toss a pick.
While the Bears don’t have a ton of talent in their secondary, cornerback Kyle Fuller got one against Stafford last weekend, and both Tashaun Gipson and Eddie Jackson are threats to grab one from safety. The fact that Jones didn’t toss a pick against Chicago last year makes this a lower-priority play for me, however.
Tom Brady (TB): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
Brady threw a pick in eight of his 16 games last year, and he threw two last week against the Saints. So why do I think he won’t throw one this week? Easy — the Buccaneers won’t need to throw as much as they usually do.
I would be surprised if the Buccaneers don’t get out to a sizeable lead early. Once they do that, they will be able to emphasize the running game as they grind out the clock, reducing the risk of Brady throwing a pick.
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