Best NFL Plays for Week 3 at No House Advantage
Week 2 is here, and I’m looking forward to this slate. We’ve got a mixed back of games — a likely Patriots win over the Raiders, a close matchup between the Rams and Bills, a must-win game for the Vikings against the Titans, and a weird matchup between the 2-0 Bears and the 0-2 Falcons. Most of these games could go either way, so it’s a little less clear where the value lies.
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 330-person $4,500 Sunday Kickoff contest, 44% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m 11-4 on the NFL after Week 2, too, so I’m hoping to keep the momentum rolling!
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Cam Newton (NE): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (S)
I don’t mean to slight Newton by taking the under here. He’s just been so efficient on the ground that he doesn’t need to pass for scores — even in a 35-30 game where he attempted 44 passes, Newton only had to throw for one touchdown because he ran for two of them.
I like this under because Newton shouldn’t attempt many passes against Las Vegas, and I expect the Patriots to grind out a win over the banged-up Raiders on the ground.
I’m including the (S) label to indicate a stack, and I’ll use my prediction of the Pats/Raiders game script to dictate a few other picks. This game’s projected point total sits at 47, according to the BettingPros consensus odds, and when we account for the spread, New England should score 26.5 to Las Vegas’ 20.5. Even if the Patriots do score three or four touchdowns, I doubt that two of them will come through the air.
Darren Waller (LV): OVER 5.5 Receptions (S)
Some lines are just too good to pass up. Waller lit up the New Orleans Saints last weekend for 12 receptions. That’s more than double this line! Waller earned another six back in Week 1 as well, so the over remains undefeated. Waller is averaging an insane 12 targets per week.
There are some injury concerns with him, however, as Waller failed to practice until Friday and is listed as questionable. That said, the Raiders won’t have Henry Ruggs, and Bryan Edwards was limited in practice all week, so they’re hurting for receiving options. As long as Waller can play, I expect him to get enough targets to clear this line.
This play ties into the Newton line well, as if the Patriots do get ahead and grind out a win, then the Raiders will have to play from behind. That means more passing attempts, and with Ruggs out, a good chunk of them should go in Waller’s direction.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Derrick Henry (TEN): OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
I am a huge fan of this line. If Waller can’t go, I would gladly insert it into my five-point slot. Surprisingly, Henry is yet to score a rushing touchdown in 2020, but he averaged just over one score per game in 2019. Henry only made four appearances without a touchdown last year.
So why hasn’t he scored this year? His usage hasn’t declined, as Henry has the most carries in the league with 56. He’s also tied for the most red-zone carries, although he hasn’t gotten as many inside the ten or the five.
I think it’s pure luck that Ryan Tannehill has thrown for all of Tennessee’s six touchdowns. Look for Henry to get back in the end zone on Sunday.
Devin Singletary (BUF): OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards
The Buffalo Bills won’t have Zack Moss this week, so Singletary is a great start in both redraft and DFS. He is 1-1 against this line so far this year, as he only notched 30 rushing yards in Week 1 alongside Moss, but he posted 56 of them in Week 2.
I’m going with the over here because of what Singletary did as the workhorse in 2019. From Weeks 9 to 16, he hit the over in six of his eight matchups — and that was with Frank Gore still active. Singletary has proven that he can clear this line before, so I think it’s a relatively safe play for Week 3.
Best Lower-Priority Prop Play
Derek Carr (LV): OVER 0.5 Interceptions (S)
I have two more options for my Patriots/Raiders stack, but I’m putting them at the bottom because I don’t see them as sure-thing plays. Carr hasn’t thrown a pick yet this season, and that’s despite facing off with the respectable Saints secondary in Week 2.
He averaged 0.5 interceptions per game in 2019, but a pair of two-pick games meant that he only threw interceptions in six games. That said, five of those six games were big losses, and that’s what I expect to happen on Sunday. Carr threw a pick in all but one game the Raiders lost by six points or more, so this pick syncs up well with the projected point total.
There’s another reason to like this play — New England’s defense leads the league in interceptions! They have four of them so far, three from Ryan Fitzpatrick and one from Russell Wilson. Look for their secondary to keep the momentum rolling against Carr in Week 3.
Josh Allen (BUF): OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Like Carr, Allen hasn’t thrown a pick yet this season. He has been taking fewer risks, and it’s worked out well for him, as the Bills are sitting pretty at 2-0. That said, the Bills have attempted the fifth-most passes per game, and only Dak Prescott has thrown more passes without an interception.
Allen averaged just over half a pick per game last year, as he threw nine of them in 16 starts. However, his two multi-interception games meant that he threw 10 interception-free games last year, which does give me some pause.
I still think that this is a smart play because the Rams’ defense has already earned two interceptions thus far — and that’s despite not getting one against Prescott in Week 1. Look for Jalen Ramsey and the Rams to take advantage of the Bills’ high-volume passing attack for at least one pick on Sunday.
Sony Michel (NE): OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (S)
This play is the one in which I have the least confidence, but it would make sense if you’re betting on a run-heavy game script. The Patriots should grind out yards (and scores) to run down the clock, and while Cam Newton is a threat to steal Michel’s red-zone thunder, the running back has already scored this season.
The other upshot with this pick is that the Raiders have surrendered the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs in 2020 with four. The fact that they’ve played pocket passes (Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees) probably has something to do with that, but their inefficient goal-line defense does give Michel some scoring upside here. This play could be a smart insert at the bottom of your lineup if Darren Waller has to miss Sunday’s game.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.