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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (9/7)

Sep 7, 2020

After seemingly 100 games this weekend, we have a small six-game slate here. There are more day games going on but this slate comprises of the six night games beginning at 6ET. That is also a strange start time and it’s something you need to remember before working on your lineups. Six games make for slim pickings for us but there are some great options out there, so, let’s get into it!.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Zac Gallen (ARI) @SF $9,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Zach Plesac (CLE) vs. KC $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kevin Gausman (SF) vs. ARZ $6,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

________

  • Gallen has been amazing this season and we’ll go over his exploits later.
  • Plesac has had a lot of drama surrounding him because of some poor decisions but a 1.33 ERA and 0.67 WHIP are hard to argue with. Not to mention, he gets to face a 27th-ranked Royals offense.
  • Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate and I truly don’t understand why. He’s got a 1.18 WHIP and gets to face a 28th-ranked Diamondbacks offense. This is the best value play out there.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (TOR) vs. NYY $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. KC $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Danny Jansen (TOR) vs. NYY $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

________

  • Guerrero is one of the most talented bats in the game and we love that he gets the platoon advantage here.
  • Santana’s averages don’t look pretty but a .362 OBP is really solid. We love that he gets to bat from his more favorable left side here too.
  • Jansen is extremely risky but getting to face a lefty makes him a nice punt play at catcher with his power potential.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Cavan Biggio (TOR) vs. NYY $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ketel Marte (ARI) @SF $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Cesar Hernandez (CLE) vs. KC $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

________

  • Biggio has been one of the best second basemen in baseball this season and is posting a .475 OBP against left-handers.
  • Marte is a much better hitter from the left side and has an .885 OPS over his last seven games played.
  • The Indians are one of our favorite stacks out there and that means we have to like Hernandez atop their lineup.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Manny Machado (SD) vs. COL $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. KC $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Eduardo Escobar (ARI) @SF $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

________

  • Not only does Machado kill lefties, he also kills the Rockies. That’s bad news for Kyle Freeland, who’s been struggling recently.
  • Ramirez has been crushing it and we’ll talk more about that later.
  • Escobar has an OPS north of .800 against righties over the last two years and is simply too cheap below $8,000.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
 Fernando Tatis Jr (SD) vs. COL $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Francisco Lindor (CLE) vs. KC $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Adelberto Mondesi (KC) @CLE $3,100 ⭐⭐ High

________

  • Tatis has been the best player in baseball this season and we simply can’t fade him against a weak lefty.
  • Lindor has scored at least 9.0 DK points in five of his last six games and gets to hit from his more favorable left side here.
  • Mondesi has been terrible this season but a $3,100 price tag is crazy from someone who can drop 20 DK points on a good day.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Wil Myers (SD) vs. COL $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Randall Grichuk (TOR) vs. NYY $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Franmil Reyes (CLE) vs. KC $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Michael Brantley (HOU) vs. OAK $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
David Peralta (ARI) @SF $2,900 ⭐⭐⭐ High

________

  • Let’s keep the San Diego bats rolling with Myers. Not only does he have a .918 OPS this season, he also gets the platoon advantage against Freeland.
  • Grichuk has a .696 SLG and 1.071 OPS against southpaws this season.
  • Reyes has been one of the best hitters over the last month and we’ll discuss that in the next section.
  • Brantley is way too good to be below $4,000. He also gets to face a struggling Frankie Montas from the left side, adding to his intrigue.
  • It’s crazy seeing Peralta below $3,000. He’s been a $4,000 player throughout his career and gets to face the lowest-priced pitcher on the slate with the platoon advantage in his favor.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Zac Gallen (ARI) $9,200: Gallen is up for NL Cy Young consideration, pitching to a 1.80 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate this season. We’re not really worried about a subpar Giants lineup facing him either.
  • Dinelson Lamet (SD) $8,800: The Rockies ranked last in road OPS last season and should struggle against a guy who has a 2.62 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 11.5 K.9 rate this season.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr (SD) $5,800: Tatis is leading all players with 12.8 DK points per game and gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher who has a 11.37 ERA and 3.16 WHIP over his last two starts.
  • Jose Ramirez (CLE) $5,200: Ramirez has a .429 OBP and 1.063 OPS over his last 11 games played. He’s also got a higher career OBP, SLG and OPS against right-handers.
  • Franmil Reyes (CLE) $4,000: Reyes has been amazing and I don’t understand why DK is keeping his price so low. Despite going hitless in three-straight, The Franimal has a .431 OBP, .648 SLG and 1.079 OPS over his last 29 games played.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Max Scherzer (WSH) $10,400: Scherzer is having a down year by his standards, owning a 3.95 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. That’s not good enough from the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, particularly against a tough Rays lineup.
  • Frankie Montas (OAK) $8,000: Facing the Astros is never fun and we obviously can’t trust a guy who has a 16.76 ERA and 2.90 WHIP over his last three starts.
  • Juan Soto (WSH) $5,800: Not only is Soto dealing with a minor injury, he also has to face Charlie Morton. That’s enough for me to fade him at $5,800.
  • Eric Hosmer (SD) $5,000: Hosmer is the one Padres player I don’t trust, having to bat from the left side.
  • Nolan Arenado (COL) $5,000: Arenado has one of the worst road OPS averages in the Majors and we simply can’t trust that against a guy like Lamet.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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