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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (9/21)

Sep 21, 2020

Brad Miller is a great piece to a Cardinals stack.

This happens to be the final Monday of the regular season, despite it seeming like the season just started. I’ve really enjoyed writing these articles and I hope that I’ve led to some success for you guys as well. Thanks for reading throughout the year and we’ll get back into Monday articles when the playoffs begin!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luis Castillo (CIN) vs. MIL $9,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Lance McCullers (HOU) @SEA $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
German Marquez (COL) @SF $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Castillo has developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball, averaging nearly 22 DraftKings points per game. That’s bad news for a 27th-ranked Brewers offense.
  • McCullers just returned from the IL last week and provided seven two-hit innings in his most recent start. We’re certainly not worried about him facing a 25th-ranked Mariners offense either.
  • Marquez is always much better outside of Coors Field, generating a 3.21 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 rate away from home since 2018.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Dominic Smith (NYM) vs. TB $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Yuli Gurriel (HOU) @SEA $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Salvador Perez (KC) vs. STL $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Smith has been a beast this season, totaling a .323 AVG and 1.006 OPS. That looks even better when you consider that he gets the platoon advantage against an unproven righty.
  • Gurriel is certainly risky with his recent struggles. but a 1.060 OPS against southpaws this season makes him one of the best values of the day.
  • Perez is the highest-scoring catcher on the board and gets to face a pitcher with a low K rate.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Ozzie Albies (ATL) vs. MIA $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Robinson Cano (NYM) vs. TB $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jose Altuve (HOU) @SEA $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Albies has been rolling recently and we’ll go over his numbers later.
  • Cano has quietly had a resurgent season for the Mets, amassing a .324 AVG and .924 OPS so far this year.
  • Altuve has been struggling but he posted an OPS just shy of 1.200 against left-handers last season, making him an intriguing option at such an affordable price.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Tommy Edman (STL) @KC $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Cavan Biggio (TOR) vs. NYY $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Austin Riley (ATL) vs. MIA $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
  • This is the toughest position on the slate but Edman is a solid option. The main reason for that is because of his opponent, facing a pitcher who’s never pitched above A-Ball before his year, posting a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in Single-A last season.
  • Biggio is having a breakout season with 8.2 DK points per game and gets the platoon advantage against an inconsistent lefty.
  • Riley has always been dominant against lefties throughout his career, generating a .583 SLG and .896 OPS against them.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. NYY $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Brad Miller (STL) vs. KC $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Carlos Correa (HOU) @SEA $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Bichette has been one of the best shortstops in the league, averaging 10.1 DK points per game. That’s awesome with him getting the platoon advantage as well.
  • Miller is a great piece to this Cardinals stack, facing the lackluster Hernandez. Since the beginning of last season, Miller has an OPS north of .900 against righties.
  • Correa has been crushing lefties throughout his career and remains too cheap at $4,500.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) vs. MIA $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
George Springer (HOU) @SEA $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Lourdes Gurriel (TOR) vs. NYY $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Corey Dickerson (MIA) @ATL $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jeff McNeil (NYM) vs. TB $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
  • Acuna is the most expensive position player on the board and we’ll tell you why in the next section.
  • Springer is on fire right now and we’ll discuss his exploits in the studs section.
  • The other Gurriel is one of the hottest players in baseball too, hitting .331 over his last 31 games en route to a 1.057 OPS.
  • Dickerson has a career OPS approaching .900 against righties and Josh Tomlin is certainly not someone who’s likely to lower that average.
  • McNeil is my favorite value play of the day and we’ll talk about that in the next section.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,500): deGrom has the best ERA and WHIP in the Majors since the beginning of last season and he’s always the safest pitching option out there no matter who he plays.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr, ATL ($5,900): Getting to face a lefty is enough incentive to use Acuna but a .458 OBP and 1.165 OPS over his last 32 fixtures tell us why he’s the highest-priced player out there.
  • Ozzie Albies, ATL ($5,100): Albies has been cruising recently too, tallying a .341 BA and 1.055 OPS over his last 10 games played. That looks even better when you consider his .342 AVG and .941 OPS against lefties for his career.
  • George Springer, HOU ($4,500): Springer has three homers over the last two days and six homers in his last 11 games in total.
  • Jeff McNeil, NYM ($3,500): McNeil has over 500 career at-bats and has provided a .322 AVG, .509 SLG and .895 OPS. Why does he remain so cheap?

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Adam Wainwright, STL ($9,500): Wainwright has turned back the clock with a monster season but a low K rate means that he can’t provide a ton of fantasy value. What makes it worse is the fact that the Royals rarely strikeout, making him a tough sell at $9,500.
  • Brandon Lowe, TB ($5,800): Lowe is the second-highest priced player on the board and we simply can’t pay that much for a guy who has to face deGrom.
  • Nolan Arenado, COL ($5,400): Arenado has one of the worst road OPS’ in the road this season and is dealing with an injury as well.
  • Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,300): Yelich has an AVG below .220 and an OPS south of .800, posting the worst season of his career. That’s bad news considering he has to face Castillo as well.
  • Javier Baez, CHC ($5,000): Baez is also having a terrible season and it’s hard to understand why he still costs $5K.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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