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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Saturday (9/19)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Sep 19, 2020

If Edwin Rios is once again in the lineup for the Dodgers tonight, he’s the best value on the board at any position.

It’s a good night to spend up on hitting at Coors Field, and that’s reflected in the studs worth their salary section. Thankfully, there’s a trio of mid-tier arms with big upside and ample value hitting options available to open up the cap space needed to roster the big boppers.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Andrew Heaney (LAA) vs. TEX $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. KC $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Charlie Morton (TB) @ BAL $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Heaney draws the worst team in baseball against southpaws this year. The Rangers rank dead last in wRC+ (64) against lefties this year, worst in the majors, per FanGraphs. They’re also strikeout prone with a 25.7 K%. Heaney has the goods to take advantage of the swing and miss in Texas’ offense with a 25.8 K%. He’s my second-favorite pitcher tonight behind Burnes.

Burnes has pitched at an otherworldly level this year with a 1.98 ERA, 3.27 SIERA, and 37.2 K%. He, too, has a dreamy draw with a Royals squad that ranks 23rd in wRC+ (89) against righties and an exploitable 24.3 K% against them.

Morton’s 5.14 ERA is ugly this year, but his 4.27 SIERA is more palatable. He and the Rays are -180 favorites, according to BettingPros, and the game’s over/under total of nine runs isn’t something to dissuade you from using Morton. He’s worth mixing in for gamers multi entering GPPs or using instead of Heaney if you need the $900 salary relief the swap creates to fill out a Dodgers stack — spoiler alert, they’re well represented in the studs worth their salary section.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) vs. NYY $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Nate Lowe (TB) @ BAL $2,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) vs. CHW $2,600 High

 
Dalbec’s immediately showcased his top-shelf power in his rookie season with a .352 ISO, but his 50.8 K% is bananas and makes him an all-or-nothing option. My favorite option at first base (or third base should you choose to deploy him there) is Lowe. Opposing righty Jorge Lopez has coughed up a .564 SLG and .379 wOBA to the 61 lefties he’s faced. Lowe won’t be the last Ray hitter featured in this space.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Ozzie Albies (ATL) @ NYM $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Joey Wendle (TB) @ BAL $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Nick Madrigal (CHW) @ CIN $3,000 ⭐⭐ High

 
Wendle’s another piece of left-handed exposure to Lopez. Albies is a lefty masher with a .376 OBP, .231 ISO, and 148 wRC+ against lefties since 2017, and he’s a strong option at the keystone position, too. However, my favorite option — who’s also outfield eligible — is forthcoming in the studs worth their salary section.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Eugenio Suarez (CIN) vs. CHW $4,200 ⭐⭐ High
Josh Donaldson (MIN) @ CHC $4,200 ⭐⭐ Medium
Edwin Rios (LAD) @ COL $3,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Suarez and Donaldson both bring big power to the table tonight in poor matchups. It gets them the nod in the table above, but if Rios is once again in the lineup for the Dodgers tonight, he’s the best value on the board at any position tonight. The power-packed slugger has a .370 ISO against righties in his young big-league career, and he’ll be treated to MLB’s most hitter-friendly park factors at Coors Field tonight, as you can see on our MLB Park Factors landing page.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brad Miller (STL) @ PIT $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Willy Adames (TB) @ BAL $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
In short, my far-and-away preferred option is listed below. If he’s out of his club’s lineup tonight, Miller’s .250 ISO and 139 wRC+ this year will play. Ditto for Adames’ .215 ISO and 127 wRC+ this year.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
J.D. Martinez (BOS) vs. NYY $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Nick Castellanos (CIN) vs. CHW $4,400 ⭐⭐ Medium
A.J Pollock (LAD) @ COL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ryan Braun (MIL) vs. KC $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (TB) @ BAL $2,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Martinez is having a forgettable 2020 campaign, but his track record of pummeling lefties is too good to completely ignore with a .437 OBP, .387 ISO, and 200 wRC+ against them since 2017. Pollock’s at Coors Field and enjoying a strong year at the dish with a .259 ISO and 125 wRC+. Tsutsugo has been a pinch below average this year with a 98 wRC+, but his .208 ISO is excellent and he’s a steal at just $2,800. Additionally, he has a far more appealing .348 xwOBA than his ugly .306 wOBA, according to Baseball Savant.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Mookie Betts, LAD ($6,100):
  • Brandon Lowe, TB ($5,700): Lowe’s mashing this year with a .359 OBP, .311 ISO, and 151 wRC+ and has a five-star matchup like his aforementioned teammates.
  • Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,600):
  • Max Muncy, LAD ($5,500):
  • Corey Seager, LAD ($5,300): The Dodgers hung 15 runs on the Rockies at Coors Field last night, and they’re -295 moneyline favorites in a game with a mouthwatering over/under total of 11.5 runs. Yup, I’m expecting fireworks again tonight.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Mike Clevinger, SD ($10,200): Clevinger hasn’t pitched up to his typical lofty standards this year, and the Mariners are a surprisingly formidable offense ranking 12th in wRC+ (104) against righties. The combo makes Clevinger an easy fade at a five-figure salary tonight.
  • Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($9,800): Kershaw’s been great this year, but Coors Field is, well, it’s Coors Field. A near five-figure salary is too steep for even an elite starter in those hitter-friendly conditions.
  • Mike Trout, LAA ($6,000):
  • Anthony Rendon, LAA ($5,700): Make no bones about it, Trout and Rendon are elite even in same-handed matchups, but paying their salaries tonight to get exposure to Lance Lynn’s .306 wOBA ceded to right-handed batters this year is an ill-advised move.
  • Mike Moustakas, CIN ($5,300): Moustakas is exactly an average hitter (100 wRC+) against lefties since 2017, and he has a dreadful matchup tonight against Dallas Keuchel and his dental-floss thin .180 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters tonight. In what world does his salary make any sense tonight? Easy fade.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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