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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Sunday (9/13)

Sep 13, 2020

Brad Keller is one of the best value plays on DraftKings Sunday

While most eyes will be fixated on the NFL today, we’re going to keep the MLB grind going. There are actually only two weeks left in the regular season and it makes these games absolutely huge. That’s why all hands are on deck and why pitchers have short leashes. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Charlie Morton (TB) vs. BOS $7,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Brad Keller (KC) vs. PIT $6,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
 Sixto Sanchez (MIA) vs. PHI $6,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Morton has been limited in his return to action but there is some talk that he’s nearing towards a full workload. That would make him a huge value against a 23rd-ranked Red Sox offense.
  • Keller and Sanchez are my two favorite pitching plays of the day and I’ll discuss that more later.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luke Voit (NYY) vs. BAL $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jesus Aguilar (MIA) vs. PHI $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jorge Alfaro (MIA) vs. PHI $3,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Voit is one of the best plays of the day. Not only does he get to face a lefty, but Voit also owns an impressive .956 OPS for the season.
  • Aguilar should be right in the heart of the Marlins lineup and gets to face a lefty with a 22.50 ERA and 4.50 WHIP.
  • Alfaro gets that spectacular matchup that Aguilar gets and could be one of the best values at catcher.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) vs. BAL $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Whit Merrifield (KC) vs. PIT $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Hanser Alberto (BAL) @NYY $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • The Yankees should take care of business against a weak lefty and that would obviously make D.J. a great play atop their lineup.
  • Merrifield is quietly one of the most productive second basemen out there and should have no problem against Chad Kuhl.
  • Alberto has an OPS north of .800 against lefties for his career and could be a sneaky choice here.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Mike Brosseau (TB) vs. BOS $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Maikel Franco (KC) vs. PIT $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Miguel Andujar (NYY) vs. BAL $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Brosseau has a .593 SLG and .940 OPS for his career against southpaws.
  • Franco is a nice piece to this Kansas City stack, with Kuhl pitching to a 4.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP for his career.
  • Andujar is one of the cheapest Yankees out there and he’s yet another guy with the platoon advantage in his favor.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Gleyber Torres (NYY) vs. BAL $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Didi Gregorius (PHI) @MIA $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Adalberto Mondesi (KC) vs. PIT $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • We love Torres and I’ll discuss that more later.
  • Didi is quietly having a really nice year for the Phillies and gets the platoon advantage here.
  • Mondesi is one of the hottest hitters in baseball the last two weeks, averaging over 15 DK points per game across his last 10 fixtures.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Christian Yelich (MIL) vs. CHC $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Clint Frazier (NYY) vs. BAL $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Franmil Reyes (CLE) @MIN $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Hunter Dozier (KC) vs. PIT $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Hunter Renfroe (TB) vs. BOS $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Yelich has been a much better hitter since struggling the opening month and should have no problem against Mills’ 4.74 ERA.
  • Frazier is the final righty to our NY stack, averaging 8.5 DK points per game for the season.
  • Reyes has an OPS north of 1.000 over the last month and it makes no sense why he’s barely cracking $4K.
  • Dozier is the final piece to our KC stack and it’s hard to understand why they’re second-best hitter is just $3,900.
  • Renfroe is one of the best values out there and you’ll see why in the next section.

5 Values Worth Their Salary

  • Brad Keller, KC ($6,800): This is probably my favorite play of the day. Not only does Pittsburgh sit dead-last in OPS, wOBA, and runs scored, Keller is also pitching to a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. That makes this price tag impossible to understand.
  • Sixto Sanchez, MIA ($6,200): Speaking of stupid price tags, what is this? The stud rookie has been amazing this season, pitching to a 1.80 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 rate. That looks even better when you consider that he gets this spacious ballpark in his favor, making him and Keller my go-to pitching plays of the day.
  • Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,500): Yelich is always much better against right-handers and should abuse a guy like Alec Mills. Since sitting on August 5, Yelich now has a .394 OBP, .527 SLG, and .927 OPS since then.
  • Gleyber Torres, NYY ($4,900): We love that Torres gets the platoon advantage against a lefty here and that he gets to face the Orioles. For his career, Gleyber has an .891 OPS against lefties and a 1.262 OPS against the O’s.
  • Hunter Renfroe, TB ($3,700): It’s crazy that Renfroe is below $4,000 against a crappy left-hander. Not only does the Sox southpaw own a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for his career, but Renfroe also had a .575 SLG and .906 OPS against lefties last season.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • J.A. Happ, NYY ($8,900): Why would you pay nearly $9K for Happ when you can use Keller and Sanchez for more than $3,000 cheaper? It’s not like Happ’s been that good anyway, pitching to a 4.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. That’s fine but not good enough for this price tag.
  • Triston McKenzie, CLE ($8,100): McKenzie is one of the highest-scoring pitchers on this slate but I simply don’t want to use a young pitcher against this elite Twins offense.
  • Jorge Polanco, MIN ($5,300): Talk about a weird price. Polanco is averaging just 6.5 DK points per game this season and has limited power potential for a $5,300 player.
  • J.T. Realmuto, PHI ($5,000): Realmuto is nicked up coming into this game and a matchup with Sixto makes using him an even tougher proposition.
  • Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4,800): I just don’t want to use righties against Charlie Morton. Even if Morton is limited, Bogey would have to navigate through his tough bullpen anyway.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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