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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Sunday (9/20)

Sep 20, 2020

Freddie Freeman is one of the hottest players in baseball right now.

We only have one week of baseball left! That’s amazing considering it seems like the season just started but it’s been a lot of fun up to this point. That does mean we have a lot of teams dropping out of the race which causes chaos for DFS purposes. There’s going to be weird lineups, limited pitch counts, and strange scratches over the final week of the season. Hopefully, we get none of that here, so, let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Max Scherzer (WAS) @MIA $10,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) @DET $10,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Urquidy (HOU) vs. ARI $7,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Scherzer and Carrasco are two of the best pitchers in baseball and we’ll discuss them more later on.
  • Urquidy is definitely my favorite value of the day, facing a 29th-ranked Arizona offense while generating a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP this season.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Freddie Freeman (ATL) vs. NYM $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Dominic Smith (NYM) vs. ATL $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Wilson Ramos (NYM) vs. ATL $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Freeman is one of the hottest players in baseball right now and we’ll discuss that more in the studs section.
  • Smith has quietly had a monster season, posting an OPS north of 1.000. That’s bad news for Kyle Wright and his 7.20 ERA and 2.08 WHIP, giving Smith the platoon advantage as well.
  • Ramos is too cheap in such a tasty matchup against Wright.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) @BOS $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. ARI $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Hanser Alberto (BAL) vs. TB $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • LeMahieu has been a monster recently atop the Yankees lineup, amassing a .500 OBP and 1.554 OPS over the last week.
  • Altuve has been terrible this season but getting him against a struggling lefty at $4,200 is hard to overlook.
  • Alberto is another guy who owns lefties, generating a .388 AVG and .926 OPS against them since 2018.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Bregman (HOU) vs. ARI $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Eugenio Suarez (CIN) vs. CWS $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Nate Lowe (TB) vs. BAL $3,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Bregman has killed lefties throughout his career and we’ll go over that more later.
  • Suarez is one of the league leaders in homers since 2016 and remains too cheap at $4,000.
  • It’s crazy that Lowe is just $3,400. He’s got a .968 OPS for the season and should be about $1,000 more.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Trea Turner (WAS) @MIA $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Gleyber Torres (NYY) @BOS $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Willy Adames (TB) vs. BAL $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • Turner has been one of the best hitters in baseball the last month, hitting .382 over his last 37 games en route to a .664 SLG and 1.102 OPS.
  • Torres is one of the best power hitters in the game and it makes it hard to believe that he’s just $4,300 in a quality matchup.
  • Adames is one of the few righty bats on the Rays and that should put him in the heart of their order here against a southpaw.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) vs. NYM $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
George Springer (HOU) vs. ARI $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Franmil Reyes (CLE) @DET $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Hunter Renfroe (TB) vs. BAL $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jeff McNeil (NYM) @ATL $3,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

 

  • Most of the Braves are rolling right now and Acuna is right there with them. Over his last 15 games played, Acuna has a .426 OBP and 1.113 OPS.
  • Springer is yet another righty we like against Madison Bumgarner, with the former Giant pitching to an 8.53 ERA and 1.74 WHIP this season.
  • Reyes has been crushing it for over a month now, providing a .379 OBP and .899 OPS over his last 40 games played.
  • Renfroe has an OPS north of .900 against left-handers since 2018.
  • McNeil is just way too cheap. Not only does he have the platoon advantage here, but he also has an .891 OPS this season which is strangely a few points below his career average.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Max Scherzer, WAS ($10,700): While Miami has been better than expected, they still have a weak lineup. That’s bad news against a guy who has a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP since 2015 while generating one of the best K rates in the Majors in that span.
  • Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($10,400): The Motor City Kitties own the worst K rate in the league and sit near the bottom of nearly every offensive statistic. That’s no good against a guy who has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts.
  • Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,600): To say Freeman is hot would be an understatement. Over his last 28 games played, FF has a .429 AVG, .538 OBP, .790 SLG and 1.329 OPS.
  • Alex Bregman, HOU ($4,800): We already talked about how bad Bum is struggling right now and that’s certainly worrisome against a guy who has a .426 OBP and 1.075 OPS against lefties since 2018.
  • Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4,400): Stanton has a 1.104 OPS in his limited time this season and gets to face a pitcher who’s made one Major League start.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Dylan Cease, CWS ($8,700): Cease is the third-highest priced pitcher on the slate and it’s hard to understand why. Not only does he face a dangerous Reds lineup, he also has a 1.38 WHIP and is averaging just 12.2 DK points per game.
  • Matt Boyd, DET ($8,400): Boyd is having the worst season of his career, amassing a 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.
  • Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,400): Yelich is also having the worst season of his career, flirting with the Mendoza Line. In fact, he has a .214 AVG and .796 OPS.
  • Starling Marte, MIA ($5,200): Marte has to face Scherzer from the right side and that’s never a good thing.
  • J.D. Martinez, BOS ($4,500): Martinez has looked awful all season long and facing a talented righty who posted a 30 percent K rate in the minors is bad for his stock here.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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