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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Sunday (9/27)

Sep 27, 2020

Paul Goldschmidt is one of the only guys on the slate that we can guarantee four at-bats for.

I hate to say this but this is easily the worst slate of the season. The final day of the regular season is always a nightmare for us DFS players, simply because we don’t know what’s going to happen. It’s tough to predict anything that’s going to happen in sports but it becomes a disaster when you have pitchers limited and wonky lineups, with most teams playing for nothing. That means a handful of guys we recommend won’t even play and that means you need to keep an eye on lineups and injury reports!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Aaron Nola (PHI) @TB $10,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Frankie Montas (OAK) vs. SEA $9,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ARI $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and his team is one of the few who are actually playing for something. We’ll talk more about that later.
  • Montas has been struggling this season but facing a 26th-ranked Mariners offense makes him an intriguing option. We also like that the A’s are a -130 favorite, with the total sitting at just 8.
  • Freeland is one of those “gamers” and Buddy Black is going to allow him to pitch as much as he wants here. That’s awesome against a 27th-ranked Arizona offense, especially with Freeland posting a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. In his last start against them, Freeland allowed just two runs across seven innings of action.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) vs. MIL $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Dominic Smith (NYM) @WAS $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Wilson Contreras (CHC) @CWS $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Goldy is one of my favorite plays of the day and we’ll discuss that more later.
  • Smith has a .993 OPS this season and gets to face a pitcher with an ERA north of 6.00. Not to mention, Smith hits from the left side against a righty.
  • Contreras is the best bet at catcher with his recent form and matchup with Reynaldo Lopez.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Ozzie Albies (ATL) vs. BOS $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Keston Hiura (MIL) @STL $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Nick Solak (TEX) vs. HOU $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Albies has an OPS north of 1.000 since coming off the IL and we love that he gets to face a struggling Nick Pivetta
  • Hiura has the platoon advantage here against Gomber and that alone makes him a great option with Milwaukee being one of the only motivated teams out there.
  • It’s hard to find a three-hole hitter at just $3,100 but that’s what we have here with Solak.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. PIT $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Manny Machado (SD) @SF $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
J.D. Davis (NYM) @WAS $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Ramirez has been one of the best players in baseball over the last month and we’ll talk about that more later.
  • Machado has been stellar as well and he’ll find his way into the stud section too.
  • Davis has been killing righties throughout his career and we adore that against a bad pitcher like Voth.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) @SF $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. BAL $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Paul DeJong (STL) vs. MIL $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Tatis is one of the leaders for NL MVP honors and he’s hard to fade with the platoon advantage in his favor.
  • Bichette also gets the platoon advantage and has developed into one of the best youngsters in the MLB.
  • DeJong is one of those guys who’s actually playing for something and we love that against a lefty with a low K rate.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Chris Taylor (LAD) vs. LAA $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jeff McNeil (NYM) @WAS $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. COL $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Corey Dickerson (MIA) @NYY $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Aristides Aquino (CIN) @MIN $2,700 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Taylor has always abused southpaws throughout his career and we love that with him generating a 1.069 OPS over his last 20 games played.
  • McNeil has a career OPS just shy of .900 and it’s hard to understand why he remains so cheap in such a good matchup.
  • Marte just came off the IL and it’s clear that this price is low because of that. Since the beginning of last season, he’s got a .923 OPS and is even better against left-handers.
  • Dickerson has crushed righties throughout his career and we love that he gets that short porch in Yankee Stadium.
  • Aquino has been hitting leadoff for the Reds recently against lefties, totaling an .856 OPS against them for his career.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Aaron Nola, PHI ($10,600): The Phillies have a tiny chance of reaching the postseason and that means Nola should see his usual workload. That alone makes him attractive on this volatile slate, with the right-hander pitching to a 3.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9 rate this season. We could also see a Triple-A Rays lineup in a meaningless game for them too.
  • Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5,600): J-Ram has a .526 OBP and 1.683 OPS over his last nine games played and it’s clear that he’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball.
  • Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,500): Speaking of hot, Freeman actually has an OBP north of .500 since the beginning of the month. That looks even better when you consider that he gets to face an unknown righty here.
  • Manny Machado, SD ($5,300): Machado has had a bounceback season for the Padres and owns a .394 OBP and .993 OPS against left-handers since 2018.
  • Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($5,100): Goldy has a career OPS near 1.000 against left-handers and he’s one of the only guys on the slate that we can guarantee four at-bats for.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Sonny Gray, CIN ($10,000): Cincy isn’t playing for anything here and that could limit Gray’s innings. We also hate that he’s got a 12.00 ERA and 2.22 WHIP over his last three starts and has to face a stout Minnesota lineup.
  • Dustin May, LAD ($9,300): May will likely see his pitch count limited and he’s impossible to use at this sort of price.
  • Mookie Betts, LAD ($6,100): Betts left Saturday’s game with an undisclosed injury and there’s no way he’ll play in this meaningless final game.
  • Aaron Judge, NYY ($5,600): Judge has been struggling since his return to action and we can’t trust him at $5,600 until he’s right.
  • Brandon Lowe, TB ($5,400): If we love Nola, we can’t use any of the Rays bats against him.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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