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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Tuesday (9/8)

Sep 8, 2020

Welcome back after the long holiday weekend and to another edition of DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice. Tonight’s featured slate is on the lighter side with nine games for us to pick from. With that, let’s look at our values, studs, and fades for tonight.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RyanWhitfieldNE.

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Value Plays: Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Andrew Heaney (LAA) @ TEX $8,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Tyler Mahle (CIN) @ CHC $8,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Sixto Sanchez (MIA) @ ATL $6,200 ⭐⭐⭐ High

The Rangers have the worst runs per game average and the second-worst team batting average, both of which prove that Heaney has a favorable matchup. He has a 3.89 ERA and has posted 15-plus fantasy points in five out of eight appearances.

Tyler Mahle has a sub-four ERA, is averaging 15.9 FPPG, and there are seven more expensive pitchers tonight. He takes the hill against the Cubs who are 19th in the league in runs per game, have the seventh-worst team batting average, and are tied for the most strikeouts in the league. In two his two matchups against them this season, Mahle has allowed just four earned runs on eight hits, and he’s struck out 15 through 10 2/3 innings. In the last matchup, he recorded 34.6 fantasy points.

Sanchez has just 19 innings under his belt in the majors, but he’s been good so far. He has a 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and has averaged 21.2 FPPG. While the Braves are a tough draw tonight, Sanchez could provide a big ROI  as the fourth cheapest pitching option.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James McCann (CWS) @ PIT $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Mitch Moreland (SD) vs. SD $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

McCann remains as safe of a bet as you can get from the catcher position in 2020. Though he just had his seven-game hitting streak snapped, he is batting .318 on the season and is averaging 7.6 FPPG. Tonight, he digs in against Joe Musgrove, who has a six-plus ERA and has allowed right-handed batters to hit .367 this season. Moreland has hit just 2-for-19 since being acquired by the Padres at the trade deadline, but he has a good chance to get back on track tonight against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has a 2.67 WHIP against lefties and has allowed them to bat .500 this season.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Robinson Cano (NYM) vs. BAL $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Hanser Alberto (BAL) @ NYM $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

While he is still batting .319 on the season, Cano struggled over the weekend, as he was held hitless over a four-game set with the Phillies. Even with that bad stretch in there, Cano is still batting .259 with three home runs and five RBI over his last 15 games. Tonight he will take on John Means, who enters with a 0-and-3 record, 8.10 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. Alberto is tied for eighth in the MLB in hits with 49 on the season. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power and driving in runs, but his .318 average has been the main factor in his 7.9 FPPG. He’ll have a good opportunity to continue adding hits to his total as he faces Michael Wacha, who has allowed righties to hit .386.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kyle Seager (SEA) @ SF $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Yoan Moncada (CWS) @ PIT $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Seager has had a nice season, as he’s batting .283 and has driven in 30. Looking at a more recent snapshot, he has posted four straight double-digit fantasy performances. His matchup tonight is against the Giants’ Logan Webb, who has fared better against lefties, though he hasn’t been great against guys from either side of the plate. Moncada continues to be hot and cold this season, but he is averaging 7.4 FPPG, is behind five guys in terms of price tonight, and he has a very desirable matchup.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Dansby Swanson (ATL) @ ATL $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐ High
J.P. Crawford (SEA) @ SF $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

Sixto Sanchez has been really strong in the first 19 innings of his MLB career, which presents a tough matchup for Swanson, though it’s a small sample size. While it’s no sure thing tonight, Swanson has been good this season. He’s batting .301, averaging 9.4 FPPG, has four multi-hit games in his last seven, and there are five shortstops who are more expensive tonight. Like with Seager, I’m looking to play this matchup against Webb with Crawford. Crawford has not been a high-end player this season, but he is 28th in the majors in runs scored with 26, is averaging 7.3 FPPG, and he is behind nine other guys in terms of price tonight.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kyle Lewis (SEA) @ SF $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. MIA $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) @ PIT $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Michael Conforto (NYM) vs. BAL $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

I’m playing the Webb matchup again, but this time from the right side of the plate where he’s had less success. Lewis is batting .310 with an OPS of .913 and is averaging 9.3 FPPG. While I like Sanchez as a value play himself, it’s hard to pass on Ozuna. He’s priced $1,000 below the top outfielder, and he’s hitting .311 with 13 home runs and 36 RBI. I like Chicago’s matchup across the field tonight, and Jimenez is slugging .549 on the season with 11 home runs and 30 RBI. John Means is much better against lefties, but he hasn’t been great, and Conforto is batting .348 and averaging 9.7 FPPG.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Mookie Betts (LAD) $6,000: It’s nearly impossible to bet against Betts at this point. Tonight he takes his nine-game hitting streak and 11.5 FPPG up against Luke Weaver, who continues to struggle this season.
  • Mike Yastrzemski (SF) $5,900: Ljay Newsome had a great debut, but he had four-plus career ERA in the minors. Yastrzemski is also on a six-game hitting streak and is averaging 10.2 FPPG.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) $6,000: Tatis Jr. is slashing .314/.405/.663 on the season and has an ideal matchup tonight.
  • Tim Anderson (CWS) $5,600: Anderson has the second-best batting average in all of baseball and is averaging 11.3 FPPG. I really like this matchup for White Sox players tonight.
  • Walker Buehler (LAD) $10,200: Buehler has a 3.60 ERA, an o.97 WHIP, and faces a team that ranks in the bottom seven of the league in both runs per game and team batting average.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Michael Wacha (NYM) $9,200: As the fourth most expensive pitching option tonight, Wacha does not have a favorable matchup, and he has a 7.20 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP.
  • Cody Bellinger (LAD) $5,800: No matter what position designation you are looking at, this price is too high for a guy batting .216 and who has gone hitless in four of his last seven games.
  • Mike Moustakas (CIN) $4,900: Moustakas is the fourth most expensive second baseman, is batting .232, and has gone hitless in six of his last 15 games.
  • Mike Trout (LAA) $6,100: Trout is the most expensive outfielder tonight, and he faces Lance Lynn and his 2.67 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
  • Christian Yelich (MIL) $5,300: Yelich is just five for his last 25, and he faces Spencer Turnbull, who has held lefties to a .177 batting average.

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Ryan Whitfield is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @RyanWhitfieldNE.

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