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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Wednesday (9/30)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Sep 30, 2020
Justin Turner

The postseason brings a narrower pool of players of interest to me in daily fantasy contests, and that’s reflected by my selections below.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Tyler Glasnow (TB) vs. TOR $8,400 ⭐⭐ Low
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU)/Jose Urquidy (HOU) @ MIN $7,500/$7,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ CHC $6,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Glasnow’s the highest-upside hurler above, and he’s my favorite option, too. In his last seven starts spanning 42 innings, Glasnow held the opposition to a 3.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 2.77 SIERA while punching out an absurd 38.8% of the hitters he faced, per FanGraphs.

McCullers Jr. is on his own roll. In his last eight starts totaling 41.1 innings, he’s spun a 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 3.50 SIERA, and struck out 27.8% of the batters he’s faced. He hasn’t been officially named the starter at the time of writing, and Jose Urquidy is another option who’s worth a look if he, in fact, gets the ball.

Alcantara makes for a solid alternative to whoever Houston starts — at least if the wind isn’t blowing out at Wrigley Field. If the wind’s blowing in, he becomes even more attractive as an option on daily lineups, but simply avoiding strong wind gusts out of the stadium makes him an enticing option in the best matchup of the three pitchers in the table above. In Alcantara’s last five starts totaling 31.1 innings, he has been magnificent with a 2.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.25 SIERA, and 23.8 K%. The massive gap in ERA and SIERA isn’t ideal, but at his sub-$7,000 salary, even if he’s only a pinch better than his SIERA, that’d play.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. NYY $3,600 ⭐⭐ Medium
Jesus Aguilar (MIA) @ CHC $2,900 ⭐⭐ Medium

For full disclosure, my preference is to use one of the top options at the position — which could include one of the studs featured in the studs worth their salary section, depending on what position you opt to use him at. Having said that, Aguilar at under $3,000 is eye-catching. He’s had a bounce-back campaign with a .352 OBP, .181 ISO, and 121 wRC+ this season.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Cesar Hernandez (CLE) vs. NYY $4,100 ⭐⭐ Low
Kolten Wong (STL) @ SD $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Nick Madrigal (CWS) @ OAK $2,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Low

The keystone position is extremely unexciting tonight. With that in mind, I’ll gladly spin all the way down to Madrigal at just a couple hundred bucks above the minimum salary. The rookie second baseman has tallied a .376 OBP and 113 wRC+ this year. Those numbers are much better than you should be able to get at his tiny salary.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brian Anderson (MIA) @ CHC $3,600 ⭐⭐ Medium
Eugenio Suarez (CIN) @ ATL $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

I’m quite content using either Anderson or Suarez today. Since 2017, Suarez has amassed a .399 OBP, .271 ISO, and 145 wRC+ against southpaws. Anderson’s improved at the dish each year in The Show, and he totaled a .345 OBP, .210 ISO, and 121 wRC+ in the regular season this year.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Marcus Semien (OAK) vs. CHW $4,300 ⭐⭐ High

Semien’s acceptable. His position atop Oakland’s order is a plus for his fantasy value, and he has the platoon advantage against lefty Dallas Keuchel. However, my favorite option at the position is still forthcoming.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nick Castellanos (CIN) @ ATL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Ian Happ (CHC) vs. MIA $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Franmil Reyes (CLE) vs. NYY $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Michael Brantley (HOU) @ MIN $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Luis Robert (CWS) @ OAK $3,200 ⭐⭐ High

The value outfield options are stacked today, whether you’re looking for a lefty-masher with a track record of excellence like Castellanos or a high-upside power/speed guy like Robert, you’re in luck. I’m really digging the middle trio of Happ, Reyes, and Brantley.

Happ’s been excellent this year with a .361 OBP, .247 ISO, and 131 wRC+. He also has the platoon advantage against Alcantara and his .369 wOBA coughed up to left-handed batters this year. Brantley’s having the best year of the hitters featured above, boasting a 134 wRC+. Reyes might be a bit of a sleeper tonight facing a righty, but Masahiro Tanaka‘s .365 wOBA served up to right-handed batters in 2020 looks worth taking a crack at with Reyes’ top-shelf pop.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Fernando Tatis Jr., SD ($5,300): Tatis Jr. mauls southpaws. In 155 plate appearances against them in his young career, he has a .445 OBP, .266 ISO, and 172 wRC+.
  • Will Smith, LAD ($4,800):
  • Justin Turner, LAD ($4,800): The Brewers are turning to their bullpen for a bullpen game started by lefty Brent Suter tomorrow. Smith and Turner will hold the platoon advantage against Suter while also boasting strong numbers against righties for when/if the Brewers remove Suter in favor of a righty reliever, making them an attractive pair of hitters to use from the Dodgers’ loaded lineup.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($9,400): No knock intended against Carrasco, but it’s baffling he’s the most expensive pitcher. Simply put, he’s overpriced relative to the other top pitching alternatives tonight, and he has a tough matchup to boot with the Yankees ranking fourth in wRC+ (122) against righties this year.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr, ATL ($5,500): Acuna’s awesome, but the fact he was scratched from Sunday’s game with wrist irritation — even though it’s considered merely precautionary — makes him an even easier fade against Trevor Bauer and the tiny .192 wOBA he’s yielded to righties this season.
  • Brandon Lowe, TB ($5,100): Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s held lefties to a .249 wOBA this year, and Lowe’s considerably better against righties than lefties, making him an easy fade today.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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