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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Wednesday (9/23)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Sep 23, 2020

Brandon Belt’s enjoying an outstanding season at the dish with a .409 OBP, .271 ISO, and 165 wRC+.

The middle-tier of pitchers is robust tonight, and the value plays table for pitchers reflects that with a high-end trio at affordable salaries. Saving on pitching and using a handful of the value hitters highlighted below opens up ample cap space to nab multiple hitters from the studs worth their salary section below.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. TEX $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) @ PIT $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Sixto Sanchez (MIA) @ ATL $7,700 High

 
The Rangers rank 29th in wRC+ (64) against righties and have punched out a whopping 25.1% of the time against them, according to FanGraphs, making them a five-star matchup for Gallen. The only offense worse against righties is the Pirates with a 58 wRC+ and 25.4 K%, making Hendricks’ matchup of the five-star variety. Both hurlers are pitching at a high level this year with Gallen totaling a 3.00 ERA and 4.01 SIERA in 66.0 innings and Hendricks amassing a 2.93 ERA and 3.86 SIERA in 73.2 innings. They’re my two favorite pitching options tonight.

Sanchez has the toughest matchup for righties this year with the Braves ranking first in wRC+ (127). However, the rookie is dazzling with a 2.75 ERA and 3.76 SIERA in 36.0 innings. He’s a viable GPP option thanks to his pitching ability, but he becomes an even more attractive daily fantasy option if the Braves run out a “hangover” lineup in the wake of clinching the National League East last night.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Joey Votto (CIN) vs. MIL $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brandon Belt (SF) vs. COL $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Carson Kelly (ARI) vs. TEX $2,600 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Both Votto and Belt have five-star matchups and the platoon advantage tonight. They’re both excellent plays, but Belt gets the edge as my top option based on the salary discount and the 2020 performance difference. Belt’s enjoying an outstanding season at the dish with a .409 OBP, .271 ISO, and 165 wRC+.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Wilmer Flores (SF) vs. COL $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Three players with second base eligibility appear in the studs worth their salary section below, but if you’re in dire need of salary savings at the keystone, Flores is the guy. Opposing starter Ryan Castellani has been hammered in same-handed matchups against righties, coughing up a .373 wOBA to them.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Josh Donaldson (MIN) vs. DET $4,200 ⭐⭐ Low
Joey Wendle (TB) @ NYM $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (TB) @ NYM $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Michael Wacha’s been knocked around by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .362 wOBA, and Wendle and Tsutsugo are a pair of lefties who will take aim at adding to his woes against lefties. Donaldson’s my favorite option at the hot corner tonight, though. His matchup is tough, but Donaldson’s in the midst of a stellar season with a .380 OBP, .270 ISO, and 141 wRC+.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Didi Gregorius (PHI) @ WAS $4,500 ⭐⭐ Medium
Gleyber Torres (NYY) @ TOR (BUF) $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Willy Adames (TB) @ NYM $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
The salaries are tight among the trio of value shortstops, and each have strong cases for usage. Gregorius is hitting at MLB’s second-best hitting venue with Nationals Park ranking second in park factor for runs (1.096), per our MLB Park Factors. Having said that, Torres and Adames are my co-favorite options. Robbie Ray has been drilled by right-handed batters for a .441 wOBA and Nathan Eovaldi has been pummeled by them for a .394 wOBA, putting Torres and Adames in prime position to put up fantasy points in their five-star matchups.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Dickerson (SF) vs. COL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jesse Winker (CIN) vs. MIL $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kyle Tucker (HOU) @ SEA $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) @ BOS $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
D.J. Stewart (BAL) @ BOS $2,500 ⭐⭐ Medium

 
The outfield is stacked tonight with value, and there are even a few more outfield options worth ponying up to use tonight forthcoming. Out of the value options, Winker, Mountcastle, and Stewart are my favorites. Winker’s sporting a .382 OBP, .279 ISO, and 143 wRC+ this year. The O’s duo of Mountcastle and Stewart are raking, too, with the former ripping off a .376 OBP, .192 ISO, and 139 wRC+ this year and the latter amassing a .374 OBP, .315 ISO, and 146 wRC+.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Brandon Lowe, TB ($6,000): Lowe’s the next Ray to make this space, and he’s punished baseballs this year with a .362 OBP, .287 ISO and 151 wRC+.
  • Juan Soto, WAS ($5,800):
  • Bryce Harper, PHI ($5,500): Soto and Harper are both playing at hitter-friendly Nationals Park tonight, and Soto’s playing out of his mind this year with a .480 OBP, .338 ISO, and 194 wRC+. Harper’s been very good, too, albeit at a lesser degree with a .398 OBP, .247 ISO, and 137 wRC+.
  • DJ LeMahieu, NYY ($5,500): LeMahieu will take aim at Ray’s ugly numbers against righites, and LeMahieu’s numbers at the plate are the farthest thing from ugly with a .415 OBP, .241 ISO, and 176 wRC+.
  • Mike Moustakas, CIN ($4,700): Moustakas is hitting at just a pinch above average this year, but his .202 ISO and five-star matchup against Adrian Houser and his .414 wOBA make him an enticing option tonight.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Zack Greinke, HOU ($9,400): Greinke’s 24.8 K% is solid if unspectacular, and that’s simply not good enough to warrant his salary in a middle-of-the-pack matchup with the Mariners tonight.
  • Tyler Glasnow, TB ($9,300): Glasnow doesn’t have any strikeout issues with a gaudy 38.4 K%, but I’d much prefer doubling up on the value pitchers above rather than paying Glasnow’s salary for a matchup with a Mets squad that’s tied for second in wRC+ (126) against righties this season.
  • Michael Wacha, NYM ($9,200): Wacha has a 6.75 ERA and 3.90 SIERA. Sure, the gap suggests he’s been very unlucky, but his salary is beyond baffling. Easy fade.
  • Tim Anderson, CWS ($5,400): Anderson’s having a great year, but I’ll pass on spending $5,400 on using him and a crack at Shane Bieber and his .254 wOBA yielded to right-handed batters this year.
  • Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,000): Yelich is another fade due to a tough matchup. Trevor Bauer has held lefties to a .281 wOBA in 2020.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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