DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Celtics at Heat (9/27)
The Celtics roared from behind in the second half of Game 5 with their backs against the wall to force a Game 6. Boston now finds itself down 3-2 to Miami and hopes to force a Game 7 with another big win on Sunday.
With this being the only game on the docket, DraftKings is running their signature single-game showdown contest for Game 6 between the Celtics and Heat. This contest is structured with six positions, including one captain spot that earns you 1.5x fantasy points and five utility (UTIL) positions without a multiplier bonus. Let’s take a look at which players you should get into your lineups and those you may want to fade, and also identify which players are deserving of filling your captain spot.
Jayson Tatum (BOS): $15,900
Tatum is the most expensive play on the slate, but for good reason. He has produced 52+ fantasy points in four of five games in the series. He’s also played an average of 42 minutes per game. Tatum almost never comes off the floor and produces in a variety of ways. If you’re looking for a high-ceiling, high-floor play, he’s your guy in Game 6.
Tyler Herro (MIA): $10,800
Herro cooled off in Game 5 after dropping a career-high 37 points in Game 4. His price skyrocketed after the jaw-dropping performance, but it has come back down to earth after putting together just 19.3 fantasy points in Game 5. Good things happen when Herro is involved early and often, so head coach Erik Spoelstra is likely to get him engaged early in Game 6 in hopes of having his sharpshooter find his groove.
In the first four games of the series, Herro averaged just under 40 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He offers a safe floor and a sky-high ceiling for the eighth-highest priced guy on the slate. He should bounce back in Game 6 after a quiet performance.
Note: I’d suggest playing both Tatum and Herro, regardless of which you ultimately decide to slot into your captain spot.
Jayson Tatum (BOS): $10,600
See write-up above.
Tyler Herro (MIA): $7,200
See write-up above.
Bam Adebayo (MIA): $9,400
Adebayo could also be in consideration for your captain spot, but I like playing Tatum or Herro there more due to their higher ceilings on a price-per-fantasy-point basis. He has scored over 43 fantasy points in four of five games in the series, and I fully expect Adebayo to hit that number again in Game 6. The big man’s consistency makes him an attractive option as a utility player. However, I’d be hesitant to throw him into the captain spot, as he’s only surpassed 50 fantasy points twice in 14 playoff games.
Jimmy Butler (MIA): $9,000
Butler’s salary has come down significantly since the series against Milwaukee. At one point, you had to pay up to $10,400 to roster him, but he now sits at a much more reasonable $9,000. With Herro shouldering more of the load offensively, Miami hasn’t needed Butler as much down the stretch for his scoring prowess. With that said, he’s still produced consistently against Boston. Much like Adebayo, Butler doesn’t give you that elite-level ceiling you might need for tournaments, but he provides a safe floor for cash games.
Jaylen Brown (BOS): $8,600
Brown’s production hasn’t been affected at all by the return of Gordon Hayward. In fact, it’s been the exact opposite. In the last three games since Hayward’s return, Brown has averaged 25 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and 1.7 steals per game. He’s producing an average of 44 fantasy points in those games. He’s become a key fixture in the Celtics offense, and much like Tatum, rarely comes off the floor. Brown is a high-upside guy to plug into your lineup for today’s slate.
Goran Dragic (MIA): $7,800
If you take away his performance in Game 3, Dragic has been awesome in the Eastern Conference Finals. In the other four games, he’s averaging 24.8 points on 19 shots per game. That has equated to an average of 38.4 fantasy points. His minutes are as safe as ever, as the Heat rarely use backup point guard Kendrick Nunn anymore. Nunn has seen just 22 minutes the entire series and hasn’t played a single minute since Game 3. Fire up Dragic at his sub-$8,000 price-tag and be confident that he’ll return solid value.
Marcus Smart (BOS): $7,600
Smart was vital in helping the Celtics come back to beat the Heat in Game 5. He put together a well-rounded 12/8/8/4 line with an excellent second half. Brad Stevens should go right back to the well with his game plan, giving Smart another 40 minutes of action as he saw in Game 5. Given his keen ability to rack up peripheral stats, Smart makes for a high-upside play on this slate. His floor may be slightly lower than Dragic’s, but his ceiling is also slightly higher.
Jae Crowder (MIA): $6,200
If you take away Crowder’s 1-for-9 shooting performance in Game 4, he’s actually played well for the Heat this series. He’s averaged 30.5 fantasy points in the other four games and is a great option for cash games given his extremely safe floor. Other than Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Crowder hasn’t produced fewer than 27 fantasy points in his last nine games. He is the anti-Duncan Robinson, whom I touch on below.
Duncan Robinson (MIA): $5,000
He’s the ultimate feast or famine play, so this recommendation is for tournaments only. No other player priced this low comes with the ability to score 30+ fantasy points like Robinson does. On the flip side, if he’s not knocking down the long ball, it could lead to a very disappointing stat line. Robinson admittedly has two games in Eastern Conference Finals where he failed to reach 15 fantasy points. But in the other three games, when he hit at least three triples, Robinson averaged 26.3 fantasy points. His price point is reasonable, making it an easier pill to swallow if he puts up a dud.
Kemba Walker (BOS): $8,200
It’s not that Walker isn’t capable of producing, but his ceiling is certainly capped by Hayward, who returned in Game 3. In the last three games, Walker is averaging just 32.2 fantasy points per game compared to 37.3 fantasy points in the two games without Hayward. You’re looking for at least 4.5x value out of your guys in cash contests, and Walker has just barely touched 4x value in his last three games. Fade Walker today with better options at that price point.
Daniel Theis (BOS): $5,600
Theis had an awesome Game 5, scoring 15 points and grabbing 13 rebounds on his way to 39.8 fantasy points. That’s a whole lot better than his first four games of the series, in which he averaged just 18.4 fantasy points per contest. With Hayward back in the fold, it’s unlikely we see another explosion from Theis. He’s much more likely to revert back to that 18.4-point average. I’d much rather pay $600 more for Jae Crowder’s safe floor.
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