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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (9/11)

Sep 11, 2020

Kyle Lowry has at least 54 fantasy points in three of his last four games

It’s rare that we have two elimination games in one day but here we are. The Boston-Toronto Game 7 is the one people are really looking forward to, with the Denver-Los Angeles Game 5 being a little less exciting. That doesn’t take away from anything though, with both of these outings being huge in terms of deciding the Conference Finals contestants. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. BOS $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kemba Walker (BOS) vs. TOR $7,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Patrick Beverley (LAC) vs. DEN $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Lowry has been superb in these playoffs and we’ll discuss his exploits later.
  • Walker really struggled with his shot in Game 6 but he played 52 minutes in that game and surpassed 30 DK points in eight-straight prior to that.
  • Beverley’s minutes have been slow to come around but 23 minutes in Game 4 is a good sign going forward.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jaylen Brown (BOS) vs. TOR $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Lou Williams (LAC) vs. DEN $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Gary Harris (DEN) vs. LAC $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Brown has been fantastic with Gordon Hayward sidelined, scoring at least 39 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
  • Williams has the ability to drop 40 on any given night and that alone makes him a solid option below $6K.
  • Harris has been re-inserted into the starting lineup and he’s one of the only guys below $5,000 who will play 30 minutes.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) vs. DEN $10,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
OG Anunoby (TOR) vs. BOS $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jerami Grant (DEN) vs. LAC $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Leonard has been the best player in the postseason and we’ll discuss that later.
  • Anunoby has had a breakout series, scoring at least 21 DK points in every playoff game he’s played while averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in this series.
  • Grant has been averaging 36 minutes a game since the postseason started and that alone makes him a good option with his double-double capabilities.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jayson Tatum (BOS) vs. TOR $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Pascal Siakam (TOR) vs. BOS $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Marcus Morris (LAC) vs. DEN $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Tatum has been awesome and should be ready to roll in this Game 7.
  • Siakam is way too cheap and could be a great value below $8K.
  • Morris is playing over 30 minutes a game and averaged 28 DK points per game in the regular season.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. LAC $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Daniel Theis (BOS) vs. TOR $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Montrezl Harrell (LAC) vs. DEN $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Jokic is hard to fade the way he’s playing and we’ll talk about that in the next section.
  • Theis is too good to be at $5,600. Not only has he scored at least 22 DraftKings points in seven-straight games, he’s also averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Harrell took down Sixth Man of the Year honors with his 31 DK points per game and it’s just a matter of time before he has a blowup outing at this cheap price tag.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($10,400): Leonard is the best player in the league right now, scoring at least 41 DK points in 17-straight games while averaging 57 fantasy points per game in the postseason.
  • Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,000): Jokic has at least 47 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games and should be extra hungry with Denver facing elimination.
  • Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,500): Tatum played 51 minutes in Game 6 and dropped 69 DK points. He’s now averaging 46.3 fantasy points per game in the postseason.
  • Kyle Lowry, TOR ($8,600): Lowry has at least 54 fantasy points in three of his last four games and could duplicate that in this Game 7.
  • Pascal Siakam, TOR ($7,800): It’s just bizarre seeing Siakam below $8K. He averaged over 40 DK points per game in the regular season and should be motivated to play better in this Game 7.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Jamal Murray, DEN ($8,500): That Utah series was a mirage and it got Murray’s price to a crazy number. He averaged just 35 DK points per game in the regular season and hasn’t surpassed 36 DK points in four of his last five games.
  • Paul George, LAC ($8,400): George is also slumping, and as crazy as it sounds, he hasn’t reached 50 DK points since the calendar turned to 2020. And, you thought you were having a rough year. In addition, he’s averaging just 34 fantasy points per game across his last nine outings.
  • Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,900): VanVleet has only surpassed 40 DK points once in his last eight games and it took two overtimes to do that. That’s a low ceiling for an $8K player and it’s clear he’s struggling with this to-notch Celtics defense.
  • Marcus Smart, BOS ($6,800): Smart was a value of mine at the beginning of the playoffs but he’s gone up $1,400 since the end of the Philly series. That makes him a tough sell with his 30-point average.
  • Serge Ibaka, TOR ($5,400): Ibaka played 21 minutes in the double-overtime game. That’s simply impossible to trust.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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