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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (9/18)

Sep 18, 2020

Rajon Rondo has scored at least 20 DK points in all five games since his return.

This is where things get interesting. We’re down to these single-game slates with only four teams remaining. We happen to be covering the Western Conference Finals here, with the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets facing off. These teams did play four times in the regular season, with the Lakers prevailing in three of four. That’s one of many reasons why they’re heavy favorites, so, let’s talk about this critical Game 1!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jamal Murray (DEN) vs. LAL $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Rajon Rondo (LAL) vs. DEN $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Alex Caruso (LAL) vs. DEN $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Murray is playing the best ball of his career right now, averaging 46 DraftKings points per game across his last 11 outings.
  • Rondo is one of the best value plays out there and we’ll go over that later.
  • Caruso was huge for Los Angeles in the Houston series and could be a nice value at just $4K.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Gary Harris (DEN) vs. LAL $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Danny Green (LAL) vs. DEN $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Torrey Craig (DEN) vs. LAL $2,400 ⭐⭐ High
  • Harris is back in Denver’s starting lineup, averaging 24.2 DK points per game across over 30 minutes of action in his last five fixtures.
  • Green is extremely volatile but if he’s hitting his three’s, he could be a huge value at $4,800
  • Craig is a total punt play but could play 25 minutes because of his defense alone.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) vs. DEN $11,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jerami Grant (DEN) vs. LAL $6,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) vs. DEN $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • James is the most expensive player on the board and we’ll discuss why later.
  • Grant has been playing a ton recently and should provide value through sheer volume.
  • KCP has also been playing a lot and it’s strange that he’s only $3K.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Michael Porter (DEN) vs. LAL $8,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Paul Millsap (DEN) vs. LAL $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kyle Kuzma (LAL) vs. DEN $7,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Porter has huge upside for the Nuggets but this price is a bit outlandish.
  • Millsap had a couple of nice games at the end of the Clippers series, averaging 19.6 DK points per game across the final three fixtures.
  • Kuzma is the apple of many fan’s eyes and it’s why his price is so high despite coming off the bench and not performing a whole lot.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. LAL $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. DEN $10,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
JaVale McGee (LAL) vs. DEN $2,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Jokic has been the best player in the NBA the last week and we’ll go over his stats in the next section.
  • Davis has been just as good, as you’ll see in the next section.
  • McGee is still starting for LA and that alone might make him a solid punt play at just $2,000.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,800): Davis is the best value of the bunch, sitting at just $10,800. We’re talking about a guy who’s scored at least 51 DK points in nine of his last 11 games, averaging over 52 fantasy points per game in that span. It’s hard to see why he’s the third-highest priced guy on any slate, let alone a one-gamer.
  • Nikola Jokic, DEN ($11,000): Jokic was a freak at the end of the Clippers series, averaging over 57 DraftKings points per game across the final six fixtures.
  • LeBron James, LAL ($11,600): James is the most expensive player out there and it’s no surprise when you see that he’s scored at least 53 DK points in seven of his last eight games en route to a 57.4-point average.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Michael Porter Jr, DEN ($8,400): Porter has all the potential in the world but this price seems crazy. Over the last three games, he’s averaging just 16 DK points in just 21 minutes of action. Don’t trust a kid in a Conference Finals series, especially at this price.
  • Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($7,000): Everyone loves Kuzma for some reason but he’s never as good as his price indicates. He averaged less than 22 fantasy points per game in the regular season and hasn’t surpassed 28 DK points in any playoff game thus far.
  • Alex Caruso, LAL ($4,000): Caruso is also another guy who the media loves. The reason I want to fade him is that he’ll be widely-owned for that reason and is now competing with Rajon Rondo for minutes.

3 Value Players

  • Jerami Grant, DEN ($6,400): Grant is going to be asked to play huge minutes. Not only is he playing over 30 minutes a game in these playoffs, he’ll also need to be used even more here to guard LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That means 35-40 minutes and that’s all we can hope for from a talented guy who’s priced so reasonably.
  • Rajon Rondo, LAL ($5,400): This price is just strange. Not only has Rondo scored at least 20 DK points in all five games since his return, but he’s also averaging 31 DraftKings points per game in that span. That’s monstrous from a $5,400 player.
  • Kentvaious Caldwell-Pope, LAL ($3,000): KCP is averaging 30 minutes played over his last nine outings and that alone makes him a solid option at just $3K. If he hits over 50 percent of the 8-12 shots he’s going to take, he’ll be a fixture in every winning lineup.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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