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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (9/4)

Sep 4, 2020

These NBA Playoffs have been absolutely amazing, and I can’t wait to get into another slate here. We actually have two huge games ahead of us, as Los Angeles and Houston begin their series while Milwaukee and Miami play a Game 3. This game is a must-win for the Bucks, who are down 2-0, and that’s why a lot of those guys are going to be huge pieces of this article. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Russell Westbrook (HOU) vs. LAL $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. MIL $7,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Eric Bledsoe (MIL) vs. MIA $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • It’s just strange to see Westbrook so cheap. We’re talking about a guy who averaged 50 DK points per game in the regular season sitting at just $8,600.
  • Dragic has been one of the best players in these playoffs, as he’s scoring at least 32 fantasy points in nine-straight games.
  • Bledsoe has been in and out of the lineup for different reasons, and it’s made his price way too low.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. LAL $11,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jimmy Butler (MIA) vs. MIL $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. MIL $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐ High

  • Harden is always one of the top options, averaging nearly 60 DK points per game.
  • Butler dropped 54 DK points in Game 1 and looks poised to have a big series against this fast-paced Milwaukee defense.
  • Herro has at least 26 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, which makes him a solid value at $5,200.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) vs. HOU $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Khris Middleton (MIL) vs. MIA $8,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Robert Covington (HOU) vs. LAL $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • LeBron averaged 55 DK points per game in the regular season and averaged 66 DK points per game in the final three outings in the first round.
  • Middleton has been inconsistent in these playoffs, but he’s actually got at least 37 fantasy points in four straight.
  • Covington is coming off a monster 52 DK points in that epic Game 7 against OKC, and he has now scored at least 40 fantasy points in three straight games.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. MIA $11,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. HOU $10,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jae Crowder (MIA) vs. MIL $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Giannis averaged nearly 60 DK points per game in the regular season and should be on a heater with his team down 2-0 in this series.
  • Davis gets a fantastic matchup against a small Houston team, and he dropped nearly 75 DK points in one of their meetings earlier this season.
  • Crowder is one of the best values of the day, averaging over 25 DK points per game across his last 10 outings.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. MIL $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brook Lopez (MIL) vs. MIA $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
P.J. Tucker (HOU) vs. LAL $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Adebayo has been one of the best players in this series, scoring at least 44 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
  • Lopez is too cheap to $5,600, scoring at least 25 DK points in six-straight while dropping at least 29 fantasy points in his last three outings.
  • Tucker is a near-guarantee for 40 minutes and has a 20-point floor. In fact, he’s scored at least 19 fantasy points in every game of this postseason while scoring 29-plus in back-to-back fixtures.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,500: Giannis is the highest-priced player on the slate and rightfully so. He led the league in fantasy points per minute and could be looking at a season-high in minutes with his team down 2-0 in this series. It’s also funny that we’re all saying he’s struggling, despite scoring at least 48 DK points in every playoff game thus far.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $11,000: James has been on a different level the last three games, as he’s averaged 65 fantasy points per game. That’s scary against the fastest-pace team in the NBA.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $10,600: That fast-paced defense makes AD look like one of the best plays on the board. Not to mention, they play no one over 6’7″, and that should allow Davis to feast with his 50-point floor.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • James Harden (HOU) $11,200: Harden hasn’t surpassed 52 DK points in three-straight games, and he needs more than that to provide value at $11,200. We can’t expect him to surpass that against the best defense in the NBA with that recent form.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,200: With Milwaukee’s back against the wall, look for them to play stifling defense. That’s bad news for an overpriced Jimmy Butler.
  • Eric Gordon (HOU) $5,800: With Westbrook and Harden both healthy, Gordon’s shots and usage are way down.

3 Notable Value Plays

  • Eric Bledsoe (MIL) $5,700: Milwaukee has to win this game, and that means it’s time for these guys to play big minutes. If Bledsoe plays 30-35 minutes, he’s a huge value with him averaging 31 DK points per game across 30.6 minutes in the regular season.
  • Jae Crowder (MIA) $5,300: This price is too low. Crowder has played over 35 minutes in back-to-back games, and he could play even more if Kelly Olynyk and Andre Igoudala are both ruled out. Tyler Herro also gains value and is a nice bargain just above $5,000.
  • P.J. Tucker (HOU) $4,800: Tucker has been way too good to be sitting below $5,000. He’s got over 29 DK points in back-to-back games and is an easy bet to play 35-40 minutes.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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