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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Heat at Celtics (9/19)

Sep 19, 2020

Bam Adebayo has been hooping in this series, totaling 43.5 and 46.0 DraftKings points in his two contests against the Celtics.

Today’s slate features a one-game slate between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat, with the series at a potential fork in the road with the Heat currently leading 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. This game has an implied total of 207.5 points, with the Celtics being favored ever-so-slightly. Ensure you’re up to injury statuses and lineup news moving forward towards the 8:30 p.m. EST tip-off.

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Star

Jayson Tatum (BOS): $15,600
The two games in this series have been somewhat polar opposites for Tatum and his performances, as the first contest ended in a strong 67-point performance but the last game ended with only 34.75 DraftKings points. Expect Tatum to bounce back, if only because the Celtics really need him too if they stand a chance at making a comeback down 2-0. Tatum’s played 43 and 42 minutes in either game, though his field-goal attempts dropped from 24 to 12 over the two contests. Expect his usage rate to skyrocket in this one, with the potential for his rebounding numbers to revert to normal, too.

Jimmy Butler (MIA): $13,500
Butler has not performed to his capabilities in this series as his two totals have landed him at 37.75 and 31.0 DraftKings points, but it’s mostly due to his lack of usage rate on offense and his ancillary stats remaining pretty low across the board. While Butler has topped 20-plus real-life points only once in his last four contests, he can never truly be counted out and could actually be somewhat of a fun contrarian option on today’s slate with most looking to spend elsewhere.

Bam Adebayo (MIA): $13,800
Unlike Butler, Adebayo has been hooping in this series, totaling 43.5 and 46.0 DraftKings points in his two contests against the Celtics. It shouldn’t really come as a surprise, either, as Adebayo has averaged 37.5 Draftkings in five total games against the Celtics this season. Adebayo is getting a ton of run, is shooting well from the field, and has no issues racking up rebounds and assists. He’s a tremendous option for the star spot tonight.

Jaylen Brown (BOS): $12,900
The young and budding star hasn’t hit his ceiling in two games versus the Heat, which seems to be a theme for most players in this contest as both teams are playing relentlessly on the defensive side of the ball. Still, there is a lot of hope with Brown and the remainder of his playoff performances prove it. The youngin’ only totaled 29.25 and 32.0 DraftKings points through two games but has the ability to get hot offensively while scooping up boards and steals in the process. Expect the Celtics to ride Brown offensively tonight as they’re up against the wall at this point in the series.

Kemba Walker (BOS): $12,600
Many of the players in this contest are struggling to return value, but Kemba isn’t one of them — he’s hit value only once out of two attempts, but he appears to finally be heating up and getting back to the player we all know he’s capable of being. Like most of the aforementioned names, Kemba is getting a ton of run, has attempted 19 field goals in both contests, but has shot terrible from 3-point land. If Walker’s 3-point shot can positively regress, watch out.

Utility

Goran Dragic (MIA): $12,300
Dragic continues to impress as a starter and is a near-lock for today’s slate with all of the remaining names struggling to return value. The Slovenian point guard has not shared those concerns, with his 46.75 and 36.75-point performances through two games. Dragic has totaled 29 and 25 real-life points in those two games and has shot a tremendous 50-plus percent from the field whilst doing so.

Marcus Smart (BOS): $11,700
You never really know what you’re getting with Smart, but his defensive prowess generally keeps him as one of the top options, particularly with the utility role on today’s showdown slate. Smart has totaled 32.75 and 28.0 DraftKings points throughout two games and has averaged 25.8 DraftKings points in four games against the Heat this season. Smart is typically a player who rises to the occasion in games like today.

Tyler Herro (MIA): $10,800
Herro usually doesn’t offer a ton of ancillary statistics, but throughout his first two games against the Celtics he’s averaged 10 rebounds and around 7.5 assists, while also chipping in 11.5 real-life points. Herro’s great play outside of his scoring punch has led to two strong performances totaling 40.75 and 30.75 DraftKings points.

Jae Crowder (MIA): $10,200
Crowder does not offer the same ceiling as many of the aforementioned names on this list but he might be the most consistent DFS player in this series. The vet’s totaled 37.25 and 27.0 DraftKings points throughout the two games, has the ability to score, rebound, and defend, and typically finds a way to at least hover around value if not outright top it. Expect Crowder to be a chalky option tonight.

Daniel Theis (BOS): $9,300
Stop me if you’ve heard this before — but, Theis has struggled to reach a value in this series with his two point-totals reaching only 15.5 and 20.0 DraftKings points. While he has yet to perform to par, Theis is getting a ton of run (32-plus minutes) and has the ability to chip in across the board, but foul trouble is certainly something to keep your eye on with the big man.

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Sosa Kremenjas is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @QBsMVP.

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