DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Lakers at Nuggets (9/24)
Today’s slate — as per usual — is a one-game showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets, the two teams which remain in the Western Conference Finals. As of now, the Lakers lead the series 2-1, with the Nuggets stealing the most recent game, but the Lakers are still considered the favorite by a relatively large margin when referencing betting implied totals. Just a reminder — when you play DFS, you should ensure that you’re up to injury statuses and lineup news ahead of tip-off, which is set for 9:00 p.m. EST.
LeBron James (LAL): $19,200
Bron is coming off his best performance in the WCF with a strong 69-point performance, but the two prior contests — both of which were wins — resulted in only 40.5 and 49.75 DraftKings points. The Washed King is always a strong option for the star spot in one-game showdowns, but he is obviously at risk of being an incredibly chalky option, and deservedly so — he gets a ton of run, he has free-will to jack up as many shots as he wishes, and he’s still capable of filling up a stat sheet across the board like no other. One thing to note: James is currently listed as probable due to a groin injury.
Anthony Davis (LAL): $18,600
Unlike LeBron, AD is coming off his worst performance in the WCF with a putrid 31.5-point performance in 43 minutes of playing time, but the two prior contests both resulted in 51-plus DraftKings points. AD has jacked up over 16 shots in every contest, over 20 shots in two out of three games, and is playing an absurdly high number of minutes. The issue for Davis has been the lack of rebounds and assists, as well as blocks, but we can expect positive regression to strike at some point and potentially as early as tonight. AD would be a fun and slightly contrarian option at the star spot tonight, as he is primed for a significant rebound.
Nikola Jokic (DEN): $18,000
Jokic is the key to everything in this series. He may actually carry the largest ceiling on the slate on any given night, but his inconsistencies could also end your DFS lineups before the night even begins, and these inconsistencies have remained throughout the Western Conference Finals. In three games, Jokic has totals of 31.5, 58.5, and 45.4 DraftKings points. Identifying what Jokic will do tonight is going to be what separates the winning lineups from the losing ones.
Jamal Murray (DEN): $15,900
There may not be a player who’s hotter coming into this contest than Murray. The Canadian has totaled 45.0 and 61.5 DraftKings points in his last two games while also totaling 44 minutes of playing time in both games. Murray has topped 21-plus real-life points in all three games, with his ancillary stats picking up tremendously over the last two contests. Murray is a genuinely intriguing and fun contrarian option tonight, but it’s always risky to avoid the other three aforementioned names at the star spot.
Rajon Rondo (LAL): $11,100
The veteran point guard has certainly slowed down as the NBA Playoffs have progressed, and he hasn’t topped 27.5 points over the last four games. His minutes are definitely something to be concerned about, as he’s only reached 30-plus minutes once in the last four games. Rondo — to nobody’s surprise — is struggling to shoot the ball from the field, particularly in the previous four games.
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): $10,200
Like Jokic, MPJ is a hard player to peg in any given context, but his ceiling is certainly something you want to chase if you’re playing in a GPP and not a cash tournament. MPJ has shot very well in his last two games (66%), but he hasn’t gotten a ton run in terms of minutes and has lacked ancillary stats across the board. One thing to note with MPJ: foul trouble has severely limited his minutes in the last two games, and that’s certainly something that could get him into trouble again tonight.
Paul Millsap (DEN): $9,000
Millsap is not an intriguing option at this point in the playoffs, as the veteran has struggled to put together any strong performances in his last five games. Millsap has reached double-digit points in real life only once in the past seven games, and he doesn’t offer much outside of rebounding. In addition to a lack of points, Millsap has struggled badly with his shooting splits. The veteran power forward is probably someone you’ll want to avoid unless you’re tossing a dart at a massive contrarian option/slate for tonight’s contest.
Jerami Grant (DEN): $8,400
Jerami Grant — the Nuggets’ hero — is coming off an insane 26-point performance that somehow only totaled 35.25 DraftKings points. The first two games in the WCF were not kind to Grant, as he totaled only 18.5 and 13.5 DraftKings points, but Grant is receiving a strong number of minutes as he’s topped 34-plus minutes of playing time in two out of three games in this series. While Grant probably won’t score 26 real-life points again, he is an interesting option for a utility role due to his minutes and sneaky volume as a shooter.
Kyle Kuzma (LAL): $7,800
Like many of the aforementioned names on this list, Kuzma has struggled throughout this series, as he has totaled fewer than 14 DraftKings points in two out of three games. One of the issues for Kuz is his lack of volume as it pertains to his field-goal attempts. Kuz has never offered a ton outside of his offensive ability, which makes playing him concerning, as he simply hasn’t had enough shots to reach value through three games in the WCF.
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