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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (9/7)

Sep 7, 2020

We’re getting to the good stuff in these semi-final series, with every game being imperative for both squads. For the Denver-Los Angeles matchup, we have an even 1-1 series score. The Toronto-Boston series is also tied up at 2-2. That means these games can swing the series either way, and all hands will be on deck to tip the scales in their teams’ favor.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jamal Murray (DEN) vs. LAC $8,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. BOS $8,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kemba Walker (BOS) vs. TOR $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Murray is playing the best basketball of his career right now, as he’s averaging 50.1 DK points per game across his last six outings. With that said, this price tag is too high.
  • Lowry has been the most reliable player for Toronto, scoring at least 54 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
  • Walker has now scored at least 29 DK points in nine straight games and is averaging 43 fantasy points per game over his last five fixtures.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Marcus Smart (BOS) vs. TOR $6,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Lou Williams (LAC) vs. DEN $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Gary Harris (DEN) vs. LAC $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐ High

  • As long as Hayward is out, Smart remains a fantastic value. In fact, he’s averaging nearly 30 DK points per game when starting this season.
  • Williams is extremely volatile, but he’s one of the only players below $6K who has 40-point potential.
  • Harris just returned from injury a few games ago and remains way too cheap at $4,100. If Harris plays 29 minutes, as he did in Game 2, he’s hard to fade at this price tag.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) vs. DEN $10,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
OG Anunoby (TOR) vs. BOS $5,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Marcus Morris (LAC) vs. DEN $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

  • Leonard has been the best player in this postseason, scoring at least 42 DK points in all eight of his games played.
  • Anunoby has scored at least 21 DK points in every game this postseason and is playing over 40 minutes a game in this series.
  • Morris is coming off a terrible Game 2, but he still averaged 28 fantasy points per game across 29 minutes of action in his first seven postseason games.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jayson Tatum (BOS) vs. TOR $9,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Daniel Theis (BOS) vs. TOR $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jerami Grant (DEN) vs. LAC $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Tatum has been amazing over the last three weeks, and he’s averaging nearly 45 DK points per game in that span.
  • Theis is very inconsistent but is averaging 24 fantasy points per game in eight meetings with the Raptors this season. That’s really all you can ask for from a $5,400 player on a two-game slate.
  • Grant has taken over Paul Millsap’s role, and he’s averaging nearly 25 DK points per game across 35 minutes of action over his last 13 games (not including the regular-season finale).

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. LAC $9,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ivica Zubac (LAC) vs. DEN $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Montrezl Harrell (LAC) vs. DEN $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ High

  • Jokic just dropped a 61-point gem in Game 2 and is hard to fade with limited center options available.
  • Zubac has scored at least 26 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and that’s awesome from a player south of $5K.
  • Harrell’s role has been slow to come around, but he’s eventually going to go off at $4,500. He averaged over 31 DraftKings points per game in the regular season, and that’d be brilliant from someone so cheap.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,300: Leonard has a 42-point floor in this postseason and is now averaging over 50 fantasy points per game. He’s simply the scariest player when the playoffs come around.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $9,700: Jokic just had the best game of his postseason on Saturday, and he should be ready for 40 minutes in this big Game 3. That makes him a solid value below $10,000.
  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,300: Tatum is averaging 45 DraftKings points per game across his last 10 outings and should be feeling it in a critical Game 5.
  • Kyle Lowry (TOR) $8,200: Lowry has been amazing recently, scoring 54 DK points in back-to-back games. Good luck finding that from another guy sitting at $8,200.
  • Gary Harris (DEN) $4,100: Ok, Harris is not a stud, but he is probably the best value on the slate. You need to get some of these real studs into your lineup, and using a $4,100 Harris makes it much easier. We’re talking about a guy who should play 30-plus minutes and has a 20-point floor if he plays that much.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Jamal Murray (DEN) $8,900: Murray’s absurd performance in the first-round has raised his price to a point that I simply can’t pay for. He’s actually scored 27 DK points or fewer in two of his last three games, and that’s more like the 35-point/$7K guy we saw in the regular season.
  • Paul George (LAC) $8,300: Something is up with PG13. He actually hasn’t surpassed 45 DraftKings points in 13 straight games now, averaging just 35 DK points per game in this postseason. That’s not good enough for an $8,300 player.
  • Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,800: FVV has established a nice floor for himself, but he hasn’t surpassed 40 DK points in six straight games. There are just too many players on this team for him to have a higher-ceiling game, and it makes him hard to use knowing that you can’t reach 40 DK points with an $8K player.
  • Serge Ibaka (TOR) $5,900: Ibaka hasn’t played more than 27 minutes in 13 straight games, and he averages just 23 minutes played in that span. That makes him hard to trust just below $6K.
  • Patrick Beverley (LAC) $3,700: Many people may pivot to Beverley as a cheap option because he’s a starter, but he’s played just 27 total minutes in the first two games of this series. It would be hard to imagine him playing more than 20 minutes here.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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