DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Nuggets at Lakers (9/26)
Today’s slate features a one-game showdown between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers, the latter which leads the Western Conference Finals by a score of 3-1. The Lakers are favored according to implied betting totals, though the Nuggets will need a win to extend the series. Ensure you’re up-to-date with all of the injury statuses and lineup news.
LeBron James (LAL): $18,300
Many players have struggled to reach a value in this series, and Bron is one of them as he’s reached value only once in four attempts. He nearly totaled a triple-double in his latest contest but only totaled 49.75 DraftKings points, which is still a strong output, but not exactly the ceiling we expect from the best player left in the playoffs. Expect Bron to experience some positive regression in his shooting splits as he shot only 39% from the field and 33% from 3-point land in his last game.
Anthony Davis (LAL): $17,700
Like LeBron, AD hasn’t been able to reach value often throughout this series. His first two contests were both strong performances, but his last two have definitely trended downward. One positive for AD is that he’s played in 43 and 41 minutes in his last two games, but his ancillary stats — which include rebounds, assists, and blocks — have been incredibly subpar throughout the last two games. Expect AD to rebound — both literally and figurately — in this one, as the Lakers have a shot to close out the series.
Nikola Jokic (DEN): $17,400
Jokic is never an easy player to peg, but he may hold the keys to either a tournament-winning upside or lineup-busting floor. Jokic proved his inconsistencies have continued, as he’s totaled 58.5 DraftKings points in one game in this series and less than 36 DraftKings points on two other occasions. The decision you make on Jokic will play a massive part in whether your lineup cashes or misses out tonight.
Jamal Murray (DEN): $15,000
Arguably, the safest player in this series is the Canadian point guard in Murray. Murray has been able to hit value twice in his last three games and nearly did it again for a third time in his most recent game. Murray hasn’t registered less than 44 minutes in the last three games, which helps set the stage for another massive performance in a potential knockout game tonight for the Nuggets and Murray himself.
Rajon Rondo (LAL): $8,000
Like many of the aforementioned names, Rondo hasn’t been able to reach a value in the last three games, mostly due to a lack of real-life points as the point guard has only reached double-digit points once in the series. Rondo — who continues to rack up assists at will — hasn’t really offered much else, and his totals have suffered because of it. Expect more of the same out of the veteran tonight.
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): $7,200
MPJ may arguably carry the largest ceiling of all the names listed under the utility role. While his minutes are certainly concerning, his ability to score has never really been in question. Porter has topped 13-plus real-life points on three separate occasions but hasn’t reached value, which correlates with most of the names on this slate. The Nuggets will need as many points as they can possibly muster tonight, and that may lead to some extended run for MPJ.
Jerami Grant (DEN): $6,600
While many players have struggled, Grant isn’t one of them — the power forward has actually performed very well in the last two games as he’s totaled 35.25 and 22.0 DraftKings points. While he failed to reach a value in his latest game, he did receive 43 minutes of playing time and once again put together a strong performance as a scorer (17 points on 46% shooting from the field). Grant feels like a chalky option on tonight’s slate — which makes perfect sense considering how many players are struggling throughout the WCF.
Paul Millsap (DEN): $6,000
Millsap has not performed well in this series, or in the playoffs as a whole. The veteran is struggling to score and isn’t getting many opportunities to do so. He hasn’t shot more than 45% from the field in six straight games and hasn’t reached double-digit points over the same stretch of time. Millsap is an incredibly cheap option on this slate, but he offers an incredibly limited ceiling and a floor that shouldn’t really excite anyone.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL): $5,400
KCP isn’t a player many people will want to target, but he may actually be the best producer of the utility options on a per-price basis. In his last four games, KCP has topped value once and has hovered near value in all three of the remaining contests. He obviously doesn’t offer a tremendous ceiling, but KCP is a great cheap option to help fit multiple stars in one lineup.