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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (9/3)

Sep 3, 2020

Today’s slate contains two games, including the Toronto Raptors — who are down 2-0 to the Boston Celtics — and the new series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. The latter game has an implied total of 223, while the former has a far lower implied total of 215.5. Ensure you’re keeping up with injury news and player status throughout, as the slate tips off at 6:30 p.m. EST.

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Value Plays: Point Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Monte Morris (DEN) @ LAC $4,100 LOW
Kyle Lowry (TOR) @ BOS $7,500 ⭐⭐⭐ LOW

Monte Morris’ totals have been a bit inconsistent, but he’s been relatively steady during his time with the first-team starters. Morris appears to be starting again today and has a shot at returning value relatively easily due to his price tag, though he doesn’t possess a massive ceiling, either. Kyle Lowry has performed very well against the Celtics through two games, even in the Raptors’ blowout loss in Game 1. Lowry is playing a ton of minutes as of right now, and even though he hasn’t shot well from the field or from three-point land, he’s been able to live around or surpass value. Lastly, his price tag actually dropped by $200 from the last game.

Shooting Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Marcus Smart (BOS) vs. TOR $6,300 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Lou Williams (LAC) vs. DEN $6,200 ⭐⭐⭐ MEDIUM

Marcus Smart was struggling badly against the Raptors in the last contest — until he randomly caught fire and hit one three-point attempt after the next, piling up nearly 20 points in the second half. Smart continues to start for the injured Gordon Hayward, and he keeps impressing. Also, the Clippers have the highest implied total of the night. While Lou Williams hasn’t played well in his last two contests, his minutes did trend downwards in a big way. Expect Sweet Lou’s minutes to get back to the high 20’s or 30’s, in which Williams could do major damage, particularly as the sixth-man in Los Angeles.

Small Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
OG Anunoby (TOR) @ BOS $5,100 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Jerami Grant (DEN) @ LAC $4,900 HIGH

OG Anunoby has hit value in his last three games and in five of his last six. Anunoby has totaled 12 and 20 real-life points in his last two against the Celtics, and he has 24.75 and 32.25 DraftKings points during the same stretch. Anunoby will factor in for the Raptors so long as they need a defensive stalwart in their starting five. Jerami Grant is an inconsistent option, but he has played in 35-plus minutes in all of his last four games. That said, he has reached value only once, and he’s coming off a terrible performance in his last game. Grant offers you an opportunity to pay down at the three-spot and spend up elsewhere.

Power Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Marcus Morris (LAC) vs. DEN $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ HIGH
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) @ LAC $5,200 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM

Marcus Morris has been a revelation for the Clippers, but he carries a ton of risk with all of the ejection and fighting issues stemming from the last few games. When he actually plays, Morris is a relatively safe bet to reach value, even with his lack of offensive usage. Michael Porter Jr. has been inconsistent during the NBA playoffs but has shown off his ceiling in multiple contests, particularly in his last game, when he totaled 27.25 DraftKings points.

Center

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Serge Ibaka (TOR) @ BOS $6,100 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Daniel Theis (BOS) vs. TOR $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐ MEDIUM

Even though the Raptors haven’t won a game through two contests against the Celtics, it hasn’t been Ibaka’s fault — Serge is playing some of the best ball of his career recently, and he has managed to hit value in five of his last seven games. Ibaka is shooting particularly well and is a threat to double-double on any given slate. Daniel Theis’ price hasn’t really risen much from his latest game, but he’s performed very well in the second round of the playoffs. The big man has cleared value in both games and demolished value in his first game against the Raptors.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,500: The Raptors haven’t performed tremendously well as a team, but Lowry isn’t the reason why — as a matter of fact, he’s low-key carried the team with his heart, even on bad shooting splits. Expect some positive regression in that regard, particularly from the three-point line. If (or when) that happens, Lowry could absolutely crush value. With the Raptors down 2-0 and their backs against the wall, they’re going to be desperate today.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $7,700: Even though he struggled for most of the Game 2 contest against the Raptors, Walker finished with a 30-point performance on DraftKings on 17 real-life points. Kemba looks fully recovered from his injury and has performed tremendously thus far.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,300: Kawhi may not care about the regular season, but it doesn’t matter — he’s downright dominant in the playoffs. In an elimination game in the last contest, Kawhi totaled 71.5 DraftKings points on a 33/14/7/5 performance. Unreal.
  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,200: Tatum is so very clearly taking the step into the elite tier of NBA players currently, and his 55-point performance only backs it up. Tatum has played a ton of minutes through two games against the Raptors and has been a scoring machine.
  • Jaylen Brown (BOS) $7,400: Even though he’s played fantastically, Brown’s price tag hasn’t hiked up a tremendous amount. Brown is playing a ton of minutes and has played an important role in the Celtics’ offense.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Pascal Siakam (TOR) $7,900: Siakam has not looked his best during this playoff run, even though he reached value in his latest game. Siakam is a strong contrarian choice, but he hasn’t been shooting well recently.
  • Marc Gasol (TOR) $4,200: Gasol’s price tag has been reduced over time, and he has been able to reach value with his reduced price tags. The issue is that Gasol has not been much of a factor in the playoffs, and he could begin to see his minutes reduced in favor of Serge Ibaka.
  • Jamal Murray (DEN) $9,300: Murray has been playing absolutely lights out this playoff period, as he scored 42-plus real-life points three times in the last series. My worry with Murray is his insanely high price tag and his difficult matchup against Patrick Beverley.
  • Paul Millsap (DEN) $4,300: Millsap has become an afterthought for the Nuggets. Over his last three games, Millsap has attempted four, three, and one shot. Pass on him at this price.
  • Paul George (LAC) $8,200: PG13 has improved his play since he got torched for his playoff struggles, but his shooting splits have still been terrible, and it’s resulted in a bunch of performances short of value. I’d fade George until he gets hot from the field consistently.

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Sosa Kremenjas is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @QBsMVP.

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