I’ve now had two good articles in a row after a rough Week 1, and I really feel like we’re starting to get into the groove here. Keep the COVID chaos in mind, as the Titans shut down their team facilities until Saturday after three players and five staff members tested positive. There’s already discussion about potentially moving their game back, so you obviously need to keep an eye on that for DFS purposes. Without further ado, let’s start with the Thursday and Monday games!
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Thursday/Monday Games
Man, we shouldn’t even be talking about this Thursday game. What a disaster! In any case, we have the Jets and the Broncos, with both teams looking for their first win. Le’Veon Bell, Cortland Sutton, and Drew Lock are out, and that leaves both teams thin in terms of fantasy-relevant players. In fact, the D/STs are some of the best plays out there. Frank Gore and Melvin Gordon are solid values handling their respective backfields.
The Monday game is much better, as the Packers host the Falcons. This game has the highest total of the week, sitting at a ridiculous 58.5. That means Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are the easy choices along with their receiving options. It’s hard to get a gauge with Julio Jones and DaVante Adams both questionable after missing Week 3, but both wide receivers would be elite plays if they suit up. If not, consider Russell Gage (also questionable) and Allen Lazard as value plays, with Calvin Ridley being the best option on the slate.
Quarterback of the Week
Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,800 at MIA
Um, the best quarterback in the league facing one of the worst passing defenses in football is not the highest-priced player on the slate? Yeah, I think that’s weird, too. So far this season, Wilson is averaging 36.3 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 34.4 DK points in all three contests. It’s clear that this running team has given the reins to Wilson, and that might be the case even more with Chris Carson expected to miss this matchup with Miami. The icing on the cake is the matchup, though, with the Dolphins owning a 29th opponent rank (OPRK) against quarterbacks this season.
Cash Game Running Back
Darrell Henderson (LAR): $5,800 vs. NYG
There may be no stock rising higher than Henderson’s. Everyone thought Cam Akers was the guy in the preseason, and then everyone thought it was Malcolm Brown after Week 1. They were all wrong, as Henderson has proven himself in the last two weeks as the Rams’ best running back. On Tuesday, Sean McVay said Henderson will probably start in Week 4, and it’s no surprise when you see that he has 195 rushing yards and two TDs on 32 carries across the last two games. His carries have gone from three to 12 to 20 in that three-game span, proving just how valuable he is and how much the coaches love him. This matchup happens to be spectacular too, with the Giants owning a 24th OPRK against running backs on DraftKings. The game script backs all of that up, as the Rams are a 12.5-point favorite in this lopsided matchup. That should give Henderson even more opportunities.
GPP Running Back
Joe Mixon (CIN): $5,800 vs. JAX
People are really down on Mixon right now, and this is a great week to hop on him. A poor start should keep his rostered rate relatively low on this slate, making him easily one of the best plays on the board. While he has struggled, Mixon has still seen at least 16 carries in all three games. If you’re telling me that anyone is getting 16 carries against the Jaguars, I want to use them, particularly a talented player like Mixon. That’s because Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in football, despite what the stats say. We also can’t overlook the fact that Mixon has faced three stingy defensive lines in the first three weeks. Mixon has ranked in the top-15 at the position since Week 8 of last season, so don’t forget how good he can be.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett (SEA): $7,000 at MIA
D.K. Metcalf (SEA): $6,800 at MIA
Well, if we love Wilson, we have to use these two wideouts. Both have been spectacular along with Wilson, and one has to believe they’ll keep rolling here. What’s really impressive is that they can co-exist. That’s evident by their floors. Lockett has scored at least 17 DK points in all three games while Metcalf hasn’t finished below 19 fantasy points. Metcalf definitely has the higher ceiling of the two, doing that damage despite catching just four passes in each game this season. Lockett is the more reliable though, leading the club with 29 total targets and 24 receptions. Our FantasyPros fantasy points allowed page loves this matchup as well, showing that Miami is ranked 30th in points allowed to wide receivers.
GPP Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE): $5,800 at DAL
It’s pretty crazy that OBJ has found himself in the GPP section of an article, but he’s lost a lot of love in DFS circles. He simply hasn’t been the stud that we saw in New York since joining Cleveland, and he even said that big games are unlikely with this dominant running game. The good news for us is that Cleveland will likely have to throw here. Not only do the Browns enter this matchup as a 4.5-point underdog, but we’re also looking at a gargantuan 55.5-point total at Dallas. That means the Browns will have to throw more, and Beckham will need to have a big game. We all know that OBJ is capable of having a monster game with his Pro Bowl exploits, and getting to face a Dallas secondary that allows the fifth-most receiving yards in the NFL only adds to his intrigue.
Tight End of the Week
Darren Waller (OAK): $5,200 vs. BUF
Part of me believes that Waller should be a top-three tight end in terms of pricing. However, he still sits just fifth despite ranking third at the position in fantasy points scored. Getting shut down by New England last week doesn’t worry me, simply because the Patriots have always been the best team in the NFL in terms of stopping the opponent’s best player. They did that because Waller still leads all tight ends with 28 total targets. That’s bad news for a Buffalo defense that has surrendered 245 yards to opposing tight ends this season, the NFL’s second-worst mark.
D/ST of the Week
Baltimore Ravens: $4,000 @WAS
I really don’t like recommending the highest-priced option at any position, but Baltimore should be $500 more. This is simply the best defense in football, and a rough outing against the Chiefs on Monday night should not make you think otherwise. They are still averaging 12 DK points per game, the second-best mark on this slate. That’s fantastic news against a Washington offense that ranks 30th in total yardage. Vegas really likes this play too. The Ravens enter this matchup as a 14-point favorite, and Washington is projected for just 16 points.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
