DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 3 (2020)
Welcome to Week 3! I hope you survived Week 2’s onslaught of injuries (I know my redraft teams didn’t), but now, it’s time to get back to the DFS grind.
If you want to fire up some studs, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three and four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks under $6K, running backs and wide receivers under $5.5K, and tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from Week 3!
Last Week’s Picks
Kirk Cousins (MIN): 1.52 points (0.25x)
Logan Thomas (WAS): 6.6 points (1.83x)
Again, like Week 1, these results are tolerable but lack upside. For the most part, my process wasn’t bad — I couldn’t have foreseen Campbell’s season-ending injury, and Jones, Gibson, Johnson, and Thomas all either hit value or showed their reasonably high floors. Cousins, though? Yikes. Sorry about that.
This Week’s Value Plays
Justin Herbert (LAC): $5,900 vs. CAR
Herbert will get the start next week against Carolina, and while it’s always a gamble to pick rookie quarterbacks, he showed some impressive stuff against the Chiefs. Herbert completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 311 yards and a touchdown, and he forced the Chiefs into overtime. He gets the Carolina Panthers in Week 3, and they have a much less impressive secondary. While there’s a chance that the Chargers embrace their running game and limit Herbert’s usage, he could also hit value by earning a rushing score himself.
Honorable mention: Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $6,000 at MIN
Joshua Kelley (LAC): $5,000 vs. CAR
…and if the Chargers do opt for a run-heavy gameplan, I want Kelley, who will benefit the most. Kelley is tied for the sixth-most carries through Week 2 (35), and he got 23 of them just last week. He has filled the void that Melvin Gordon left in Los Angeles, and since the Panthers have surrendered three rushing scores to the last two teams they’ve faced, he’s a safe bet to find paydirt.
Jerick McKinnon (SF): $4,900 at NYG
McKinnon has a ton of value with Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert out for the foreseeable future. To be fair, he had value with both of them still in the offense, as he scored a touchdown in Week 1 when both of them were healthy. McKinnon has 91st-percentile speed, 97th percentile burst, and 94th-percentile agility — and PlayerProfiler compares him to LaDanian Tomlinson. I expect big things from him in what should be a run-heavy game script against the New York Giants.
Honorable mention: Antonio Gibson (WAS): $4,700 at CLE
Diontae Johnson (PIT): $5,400 vs. HOU
After Week 2, there are no questions that Johnson is Ben Roethlisberger’s WR1. He leads the team in air yards (176) and receptions (14). Johnson exploded for 92 yards and a score against Denver’s respectable secondary last week, and he gets an even easier opponent in Week 3. That said, the Texans have fielded a run-funnel defense through two games, but that’s probably just a product of them having played the Chiefs and Ravens, and I’m confident that a floor game from Johnson will still come close to value.
K.J. Hamler (DEN): $3,000 vs. TB
It’s not often you can find a great option like this for just $3k. Hamler led the Broncos in air yards (117) and tied for the lead in targets (7), so he’s a higher-floor option than this figure would suggest. He would technically hit value with just three catches for 60 yards, and with his 3-48 stat line from last week, that’s entirely within his range of outcomes. He’ll also have an easier matchup this week, as the Steelers have a much more imposing defense than the Buccaneers.
Logan Thomas (WAS): $3,700 at CLE
Thomas let us down this week, but I’ll give him a pass. Why? The Browns are surrendering the second-most points per game to tight ends through two weeks. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but the gap between second-worst Cleveland and third-worst Atlanta is the same as the gap between Atlanta and the tenth-worst Chargers. Thomas is second on this team in air yards (134) and is tied for the lead in targets (17), so I’m excited about him in a smash-spot matchup.
Honorable mention: Drew Sample (CIN): $3,500 at PHI
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.