FanDuel DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (9/21)
On a six-game slate, only a trio of pitchers make the cut as worth using with a pair appearing in the value plays section and an ace featured in the studs worth their salary section. The suggested value plays at hitter were chosen with rostering the pricey ace in mind, but for gamers spinning down to one of the value hurlers, there are a few high-upside hitters who make for a tantalizing stack and a one-off power hitter coming off of a two-tater game on Sunday.
|German Marquez (COL)||@ SF||$8,300||⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Johnny Cueto (SF)||vs. COL||$8,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
A couple of pitchers squaring off in San Francisco tonight both make the value plays section. Cueto is basically a matchup-driven selection. The Rockies rank 28th in wRC+ (70) against righties this year, according to FanGraphs. Further, they’re extremely strikeout prone on the road with a 26.5 K% in road tilts this season.
While Colorado’s lineup is dinged for this being a road contest, Marquez’s value gets a huge shot in the arm. In 30.2 innings pitched on the road this year, Marquez has a 2.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 22.4 K%. For this career, he has a 3.62 ERA and 23.4 K%.
|Travis d’Arnaud (ATL)||vs. MIA||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Brad Miller (STL)||@ KC||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Yuli Gurriel (HOU)||@ SEA||$2,600||⭐||High|
d’Arnaud and Miller are a pair of veteran cleanup hitters with five-star matchups and the platoon advantage tonight. The former has tallied a .400 OBP, .231 ISO, and 156 wRC+ this year while the latter has ripped off a .377 OBP, .236 ISO, and 133 wRC+. Both are excellent options, and using one as a utility hitter is on the table.
|Jose Altuve (HOU)||@ SEA||$3,100||⭐||High|
|Kolten Wong (STL)||@ KC||$2,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Wong’s my preferred option at the keystone position, namely if he’s in his customary leadoff position when the Red Birds face a righty. He’s hitting at a below-average level with an 86 wRC+ this year, but his .341 OBP is strong.
|Kyle Seager (SEA)||vs. HOU||$3,100||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Brian Anderson (MIA)||@ ATL||$3,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Tommy Edman (STL)||@ KC||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Seager is enjoying a stellar season with a 116 wRC+. He also adds some fantasy upside with his feet having stolen five bases this year. Anderson’s my favorite option at the hot corner, though. His bat has improved each year in the majors, and he’s kicked it up to a whole new level this year with a .369 OBP, .213 ISO, and 134 wRC+, all new career highs.
|J.P. Crawford (SEA)||vs. HOU||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Carlos Correa (HOU)||@ SEA||$2,700||⭐||Medium|
Crawford is only a few ticks above average with the stick with a 105 wRC+ against righties since 2017, but his spot atop Seattle’s order helps his case for usage in daily lineups. Correa’s value gets dinged by hitting down order and having a tough matchup with Marco Gonzales tonight, but his track record of excellence against southpaws (.415 OBP and 150 wRC+) makes him a solid option at a bargain salary.
|Kyle Tucker (HOU)||@ SEA||$3,400||⭐⭐||High|
|Adam Duvall (ATL)||vs. MIA||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Ian Happ (CHC)||@ PIT||$3,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|J.D. Davis (NYM)||vs. TB||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Corey Dickerson (MIA)||@ ATL||$2,800||⭐⭐⭐||High|
Duvall has big pop with a .267 ISO against lefties since 2017 and a .348 ISO this year. The switch-hitting Happ has a .357 OBP, .267 ISO, and 128 wRC+ against righties and has been raking this year with a .373 OBP, .280 ISO, and 143 wRC+. Davis is the other outfielder in the table who I’m especially interested in with a .380 OBP and 124 wRC+ this year.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,500): deGrom has been lights out this year with a 2.09 ERA, 2.85 SIERA, and 36.4 K%. His strikeout rate is especially noteworthy against a Rays offense that’s punched out at a 25.4% clip against righties this season.
- Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL ($4,500):
- Marcell Ozuna, ATL ($4,200):
- Ozzie Albies, ATL ($3,900): The game over/under total in Atlanta tonight is 9.5 runs with the Braves serving as -177 moneyline favorites, according to the consensus line at BettingPros. This trio all mash against lefties and are excellent exposure to the high implied total for the Braves.
- George Springer, HOU ($3,700): Springer hit a pair of homers yesterday with a stolen base, to boot. He’s also no stranger to giving lefties fits with a .383 OBP, .229 ISO, and 143 wRC+ against them since 2017.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Lance McCullers Jr., HOU ($8,700): McCullers Jr. is lights out at home in his careers (2.51 ERA), but not so much on the road (5.22 ERA). Easy fade.
- Trevor Story, COL ($4,200):
- Charlie Blackmon, COL ($3,600): You know the drill, Colorado’s hitters are a poor option at their bloated salaries when they’re on the road.
- Brandon Lowe, TB ($3,600): Paying up to use a hitter, even a very good one like Lowe, against deGrom is ill-advised.
- Whit Merrifield, KC ($3,500): Adam Wainwright‘s a tough assignment for righties, holding them to a .229 wOBA this season.
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