FanDuel DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Tuesday (9/8)
I find Tuesday’s slate to be lacking in quality pitching options, and outside of a few at the top, almost all of your value options on the hill come with some scary risk. Conversely, we are afforded a few attractive lineup stacks. I like Cleveland’s matchup against Jakob Junis and the Dodgers’ chances against struggling Luke Weaver of Arizona. I also show why stacking the Mets against Baltimore’s John Means could provide excellent returns despite New York’s decidedly less potent offense than Los Angeles’.
Finally, there are a few less sexy names that I keep sending out as part of my write-ups, and they keep producing at levels similar to those of more flashy names, but for a considerable discount. I can’t help but continue to plug them as value plays because they keep providing returns, almost without fail.
Enough chit chat. What’s on tap for Tuesday?
- Andrew Heaney (LAA), @ Rangers, $9,200, Matchup 4/5, risk low
- Lance Lynn (TEX), vs. Angels, $8,800 Matchup 3/5, risk medium
- Logan Webb (SF), vs. Mariners, $6,700 Matchup 4/5, risk medium
Andrew Heaney is the fourth-most expensive pitcher on Tuesday, and he’ll face the Rangers on the heels of two very useful starts. He’s pitched 7+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 16 and earning two wins. He’s given up a total of seven hits in those two games, yielding only three to the Padres last Thursday and four against the Mariners on August 28. There are some flags here as Heaney seems to be pitching slightly above his peripherals. I give him the benefit of the doubt on Tuesday, though; Texas has some of the worst offensive metrics in baseball (.137 ISO, .320 xwOBA, league-worst wRC+ of 64). Ride the wave for one more start before Heaney’s price catches up — and possibly surpasses — to his production.
We’ll switch dugouts in the same matchup for our second value pick, Lance Lynn. Lynn’s numbers took a hit because of his last outing in which he surrendered six earned runs to the Astros. This seems to be a hiccup in an otherwise impressive season. Lynn has registered a quality start in seven of his nine starts, striking out at least six in every single game. He has allowed more than two earned runs only twice. He faced these same Angels on August 9 and was effective in five innings of work, striking out six while allowing two runs and earning a win. Lynn has been able to neutralize some of the big bats of Los Angeles in his career, limiting Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, and Anthony Rendon to just three hits in 29 at-bats. Mike Trout is just 5-for-20 with a couple of homers.
Outside of the obvious choices for starting pitching on Tuesday, low-risk value options are nearly non-existent. So, if that’s the case, I’m cutting costs and going uber-cheap with Logan Webb of the Giants against the Mariners. Webb hasn’t been spectacular by any stretch, but the Mariners are in the bottom 25% of the league in a lot of offensive metrics, so it’s a conservative pick without a lot of upside. Webb has struck out just under one-per-inning so he could tally a few against the Mariners, who strike out 23.6% of the time. The last time he pitched in a favorable matchup, he posted 49 points against Arizona on August 21.
Catcher / First Base
- Carlos Santana (CLE), vs. Royals, $2,700, Matchup 5/5, risk medium
- Will Smith (LAD), vs. Diamondbacks, $2,900 Matchup 4/5, risk medium
- Pete Alonso (NYM), vs. Orioles, $3,700 Matchup 5/5, risk low
Santana may be batting .206 on the year, but he is one of a few Indians who showcases impressive stats against the Royals’ Jakob Junis. Carlos is batting .438 against Junis in 17 AB with four walks against just one strikeout. I like the floor here with maybe a couple of walks and possibly some juicy RBI opportunities.
Will Smith has homered in consecutive starts, but he’s also racking up hits (nine in last nine games), scoring runs (also nine in previous nine games), and drawing walks (eight in last nine). He will be facing the Dbacks’ Luke Weaver, who has been bad (7.44 ERA in eight starts). Check the starting lineups, but if Smith is in Los Angeles’ lineup, he’s a good fit for yours.
Pete Alonso has homered four times in the last five games. The right-handed slugger will face lefty John Means of Baltimore, who is susceptible to the long ball (1.61 career HR/9), painfully so in 2020 (eight homers allowed in just twenty innings). So you’ve got the power hot streak, the home run pitcher struggling with home runs, and the favorable lefty-righty matchup. This seems to be one of the better high-value plays of the day.
- Robinson Cano (NYM), vs. Orioles, $3,400, Matchup 5/5, risk high
- Jonathan Schoop (DET), vs. Brewers, $3,200 Matchup 4/5, risk low
Cano is hitless in his last 17 AB, but he’s too good for that to continue. See above regarding John Means, his opponent for Tuesday, and I believe the stage is set for a slump-busting day from Cano. Of course, he could continue to slump, hence the high-risk profile.
I touted Schoop for my Sunday matchups, and he rewarded me with a triple and a double while also scoring two runs and driving in one. That’s 24.9 points. He went hitless in Monday night’s game against the Twins, but he’s yet to go hitless in two consecutive games all season. Love the value here against Adrian Houser, who has given up nine hits in three straight starts, including Schoop’s Tigers last Wednesday. Schoop was 1-for-4 in that game.
- Kyle Seager (SEA), @ Giants, $3,200 Matchup 4/5, risk low
- Dylan Moore (SEA), @ Giants, $3,000 Matchup 4/5, risk low
- Jeff McNeil (NYM), vs. Orioles, $2,700 Matchup 3/5, risk high
Kyle Seager is doing what Kyle Seager does best: quietly performing and earning profits for fantasy owners. He’s produced at least 15.2 points in four consecutive games and comes into Tuesday’s contest in San Francisco, averaging 11.9 FPPG for the season. That’s more than Nick Castellanos, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger, to name a few. If you don’t want to pay for names and would rather pay for consistent value, Seager is always a fine choice, and he’s hot right now.
Another third base option in the very same dugout is Dylan Moore of Seattle. I recommended Moore for Sunday’s slate, and he didn’t start. Yet, he still posted 9.2 points by grabbing a steal and a run scored. Then, on Monday, he homered, doubled, scored twice, and drove in four runs — good for 38.4 points. At $3,000, his 14 FPPG is economical when compared to Manny Machado’s 14 FPPG for $1,000 more.
You could almost see Jeff McNeil approaching a breakout by his game logs starting in late August. He’s registered a hit in all but one game since August 28 and was rattling off doubles. Then, after not homering all year, he went yard on Sunday and Monday. As a left-handed hitter, I would typically avoid plugging him in against the lefty Means, but I like the Mets’ stack on Tuesday, and McNeil carries a .298 career batting average against lefties. What I would hope for is a couple of base hits, maybe a walk, and some runs as the big bats behind him drive him in.
- Francisco Lindor (CLE), vs. Royals, $3,500, Matchup 5/5, risk low
- Jose Iglesias (BAL), @ Mets, $2,600 Matchup 3/5, risk high
If I could make a matchup six stars out of five, this would be the one. First of all, Lindor is hitting well again. He’s recorded multiple hits in four of his last six games and has also drawn four walks in his previous three contests. Okay, not earth-shattering, right? But you’d be hard-pressed to find a more favorable matchup than Lindor versus Jakob Junis. Lindor is 17-for-34 with four homers against the Royals’ righty in his career. Statcast says that Lindor’s average exit velocity against Junis is 90.7 MPH, and his expected slugging percentage is .657.
On August 15, Jose Iglesias went 3-for-5 with a double. He then spent time on the Injured List and returned to the lineup on August 28. He wasted no time finding his stroke again, recording two hits in each of his next six games. He’s slashing .396/.417/.538 on the season, not terrible for his price tag. If you are looking for a high floor without the high ceiling for cheap, consider Iglesias, but check the lineup before game time as he’s receiving regular rest to continue to give him time to heal completely from his injury. But, generally, if he plays, he hits.
- Trent Grisham (SD), vs. Rockies, $3,200, Matchup 4/5, risk medium
- Tyler Naquin (CLE), vs. Royals, $2,900, Matchup 5/5, risk high
- Randal Grichuk (TOR), vs. Yankees, $3,200, Matchup 5/5, risk medium
- Franmil Reyes (CLE), vs. Royals, $3,000, Matchup 5/5, risk medium
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR), vs. Yankees, $2,900, Matchup 3/5, risk medium
What I love about Grisham is that he contributes in different ways. He has eight homers, six steals, 29 runs, 18 RBI, 20 BB… you get the picture. He’ll draw a favorable lefty-righty matchup on Tuesday when the Padres face Chi Chi Gonzalez of Colorado.
Left-handed Tyler Naquin will face righty Jakob Junis in a Cleveland lineup that has a lot of success against the Royals’ pitcher. Naquin owns stock in that success, going 7-for-17 with one home run. I noted that he’s high risk because he’s hitless in his last ten at-bats. Fanduel also projects he’ll bat seventh in the order, so he may not have the same opportunities as Santana and Lindor.
Randal Grichuk enters Tuesday’s contest with six hits in his last 18 at-bats, and he has two homers against J.A. Happ in 14 trips to the plate against the Yankees’ righty. This is a solid lefty-righty matchup with previous success. Grichuk is batting .277 with nine homers overall on the year. His 12.7% barrel rate is better than 83% of the league.
I feel like I owe an apology to Jakob Junis, but it’s just too tempting to keep plugging all these Cleveland bats when so many of them have success against him. Franmil Reyes’ success is much lighter than the others I’ve listed (2-for-4, one double), but he’ll likely be batting cleanup with a lot of opportunities to drive in runs. On the season, Reyes is batting .322 with eight homers, so he’s got excellent floor value at $3,000. But with his renowned power, he also has a very high ceiling.
Gurriel is 1-for-8 against J.A. Happ, but he enters Tuesday’s contest red hot, banging out seven hits in his last 11 at-bats. Overall, he’s batting .375 with two homers and a 7:7 BB:K ratio since August 25. He’s seeing the ball very well and presents some nice upside for his price tag.
Five Studs Worth Their Salary
- Walker Buehler (LAD), $10,400: Buehler has tallied 17 strikeouts in his last 11 IP. Arizona is one of the weakest lineups in baseball. He could rake in significant points on Tuesday.
- Corey Seager (LAD), $3,900: I don’t get to call the younger of the Seager brothers a value anymore, as his $3,900 has finally caught up to his real studliness. Deploy as part of a Dodgers’ stack against Luke Weaver. Seager is 4-for-6 against Weaver.
- Mookie Betts (LAD), $4,500: I am not a Dodgers fan. I just love how they stack up against Arizona on Tuesday on both sides of the ball. Betts has double-digit points in five of his last seven contests.
- Jose Abreu (CHW), $3,800: Baseball’s RBI leader is batting .375 with 10 HR in his current 19-game hitting streak. There is no hotter hitter in the game.
- Triston McKenzie (CLE), $9,400: McKenzie faced the Royals last week and went six strong, striking out six, walking none, and allowing no runs while earning the win.
Five Notable Players to Fade
- Sixto Sanchez (MIA), $9,000: He’s been great, and there’s nothing in his metrics to suggest that he won’t continue to do so. However, Atlanta is tied for first in baseball in OPS against righties (.852). He’s a risky proposition at $9,000.
- Gary Sanchez (NYY), $2,800: If you haven’t heard, Sanchez has been horrible. He’s batting just .130 and sat out a second straight game on Tuesday. Stay away for the foreseeable future.
- Brandon Lowe (TB), $3,200: Ice cold. Lowe has seven hits in his last 63 AB.
- Jose Ramirez (CLE), $3,800: My Cleveland stack against Jakob Junis takes a big hit as Ramirez is day-to-day with a nagging thumb injury.
- Cody Bellinger (LAD), $4,300: Not part of my recommended Dodgers stack. He is always dangerous, but he’s still putting up too many donuts for his price tag (four games with zero points in his last eight).
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