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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (9/4)

Sep 4, 2020

As per usual, today’s slate consists of two games. First, we’ve got the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Miami Heat, a team that’s surprised the Bucks with two early-series wins. Next up, we’ve got the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers, who have yet to tip-off their second-round series. Both games are incredibly close in implied total, though the Lakers lead the night in that regard.

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Point Guard Value Plays

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Eric Bledsoe (MIL) @ MIA $5,600 ⭐⭐ HIGH
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. MIL $7,200 ⭐⭐ LOW

Eric Bledsoe is a potential injury risk, as he missed the first contest against the Heat but suited up in the latest contest for 30 minutes of playing time. The hamstring injury is something to note either way, but Bledsoe did perform decently in his last game, as he scored 24.4 FanDuel points. There aren’t many value options on today’s slate, but Bledsoe is a solid one at the point guard spot.

Goran Dragic’s price remains relatively high, but with good reason — he hasn’t scored fewer than 34.5 FanDuel points in any of his last four games, and he has only scored under than that amount once in his last seven games. Dragic is playing outstanding ball as a starter.

Shooting Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. MIL $5,400 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) vs. HOU $4,000 HIGH

Tyler Herro is one of the best value plays on the entire slate today, as he has been hot as of late. Outside of one 14-point stinker, Herro has hovered around or above the 25-point mark in all of his last five games. Buy the dangerous three-point threat — he can afford you the opportunity to pay up elsewhere. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope isn’t a great player, simply put, but this position doesn’t offer many value options, either. KCP’s cheap price tag allows him an opportunity to hit value on any given night.

Small Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jae Crowder (MIA) vs. MIL $5,000 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Eric Gordon (HOU) @ LAL $5,600 ⭐⭐ LOW

Jae Crowder isn’t the most exciting player on the DFS landscape, but he’s been incredibly solid as of late, and he has played 34 and 35 minutes in the two contests against the Bucks so far. Crowder’s massive workload and ability to chip in across the entire stat sheet allows him to hover around value on most nights.

Eric Gordon’s ceiling is certainly capped with Russell Westbrook on the court, but Gordon has still played well with Westbrook back — he’s scored 27.8 and 28.6 FanDuel points with both players active. In addition to those finishes, Gordon has topped 30-plus four times in his last six games.

Power Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Robert Covington (HOU) @ LAL $6,800 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Marvin Williams (MIL) @ MIA $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐ MEDIUM

One of the most impressive players on this entire list is Robert Covington. The defensive stalwart has totaled 42.9, 47, and 52.5 FanDuel points. RoCo is a problem — he’s playing some elite-level ball right now. Marvin Williams is a deep sleeper option at the four-spot if you elect to pay down here to pay up elsewhere. Williams has gotten 21 minutes of playing time in both of the first two games against the Heat, and he has approached value though he didn’t reach it in either contest.

Center

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
P.J. Tucker (HOU) @ LAL $5,100 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Brook Lopez (MIL) @ MIA $5,700 ⭐⭐ LOW

P.J. Tucker’s price has finally increased, and with good reason — the man has an absolutely massive workload. Tucker didn’t play in less than 37 minutes — outside of the game in which he was ejected — once in his last five games. It’s tough not to reach value with that much playing time, even for a player as limited as Tucker is offensively.

Brook Lopez is the class of the position today, and with good reason — he’s scored 33.2 and 29.4 FanDuel points throughout the first two contests in this series. BroLo is a very safe and steady option at the five-spot.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,800: LeBron was really hitting his stride in the first playoff series against the Portland Trail Blazers, particularly toward the end, when he topped 53 FanDuel points in the last three games and 62-plus points twice. Load up on Bron tonight.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $11,200: AD looked unstoppable in the first series against the Trail Blazers. Bad news, Houston. I have absolutely no clue how the small size of the Rockets is supposed to stop AD. He has an astronomical ceiling throughout this series.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,700: The last game wasn’t Butler’s finest performance, but even with that being the case, he totaled 32.6 FanDuel points. It goes to show how large his ceiling really is. I’d bet on Jimmy Buckets today, particularly at his price tag.
  • Goran Dragic (MIA) $7,200: I mentioned Dragic as one of the better value options above. He also happens to make this list. Dragic has been on fire as of late. Keep buying into him until he slows down.
  • Robert Covington (HOU) $6,800: Like Dragic, RoCo needed to be listed twice due to how good he is playing. RoCo will likely need to draw a ton of Bron in coverage tonight and could get into foul trouble, but his play has been just outstanding recently, making him worth the potential risk.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • James Harden (HOU) $11,000: Harden struggled mightily in the first playoff series against the defense of Lu Dort. The Lakers are one of the best and most suffocating defenses in the NBA. Expect them to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Harden today.
  • Russell Westbrook (HOU) $8,500: Westbrook is an elite buy-low option, and he’s potentially a contrarian one at his price, but it just doesn’t seem like a worthwhile investment yet. Westbrook has struggled mightily since his return to the court three games ago.
  • Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $4,200: Nunn being randomly forgotten and benched is one of the stranger storylines in the NBA bubble, but he’s simply not playable right now with his severe lack of playing time.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,600: Listing Giannis here is tough — even though he hasn’t played to his standards, he scored 51.3 FanDuel points in his latest game. Giannis’ ceiling is unmatched, but his game has the potential to struggle in this series against the smart and tough defense of the Heat.
  • Jeff Green (HOU) $4,600: Jeff Green’s value has essentially fallen off a cliff since the return of Russell Westbrook. It seems best to avoid him for now.

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Sosa Kremenjas is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @QBsMVP.

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