FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Heat at Celtics (9/25)
Today’s slate is a one-game showdown between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. Currently, the Heat holds a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals and are looking to close out the series with a win tonight for the 8:30 p.m. EST tip-off. The Celtics are slightly favored according to betting implied totals. Ensure you’re up-to-date with injury statuses and lineup news.
Jayson Tatum (BOS): $16,000
Outside of one game in which he struggled, Tatum has been tremendous throughout this series with three games topping 50-plus FanDuel points, and one of which totaled 66.3 FanDuel points. Tatum’s minutes have remained absurdly high throughout the series as he hasn’t registered less than 39 minutes in any game, and that makes sense with how up-against-the-wall the Celtics have been from the beginning of this series. The Celtics should play with another level of desperation tonight, which could result in a superb performance from Tatum.
Bam Adebayo (MIA): $15,500
Like Tatum, Adebayo has been awesome throughout the ECF. Bam has been highly consistent, totaling between 43.4 and 59.7 FanDuel points in each contest. The big man has reeled in double-doubles in three straight games and has chipped in on the defensive side of the ball with a combined 10 blocks and steals in the last three games. Adebayo is a great option tonight, but it would be risky not selecting Tatum.
Jimmy Butler (MIA): $14,500
While Butler has been an absolute star throughout the playoffs, his point-totals haven’t been as dominant as expected, dating back to the last two games of the Milwaukee Bucks series. Butler has topped 20-plus real-life points in two out of the four games in this series, but he hasn’t chipped in as many ancillary stats as usual, though Butler is coming off his best performance in the Eastern Conference Finals and could look to strike while the iron is hot tonight.
Jaylen Brown (BOS): $12,500
Brown has been somewhat inconsistent but has displayed his ceiling with a 51.9-point performance two games ago. Brown hasn’t been able to recreate that same magic in any of the remaining games throughout this series, but he’s very talented and has the potential to go off any given night. Lastly, the Celtics are going to be desperate for a win tonight with their season effectively on the line, and that should be factored in when building your lineups.
Kemba Walker (BOS): $11,500
The point guard has slowly begun to get his feet back under him with three 30-plus point performances in his last four games, but Walker still isn’t reaching the peak we all know he’s capable of reaching. While his scoring totals have positively regressed to the norm, it’s his ancillary stats — and in particular the defensive statistics — that are currently lacking and keeping Kemba from producing stud results.
Tyler Herro (MIA): $11,000
Herro — who appears to be a newfound legend for the Heat — has put together three really strong performances in his last four games, topping 34.8 FanDuel points three times and totaling 47.7 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. While he won’t chip in much on the defensive end, Herro’s scoring ability and activity on the boards and as a passer are a good trio to have when trying to forge a strong DFS performance. Herro is likely to be a very chalky option tonight, and with good reason — he’s played outstanding ball recently.
Goran Dragic (MIA): $10,500
The last two games have ended on two completely opposite ends of the spectrum for Dragic, with one performance landing at 14.7 FanDuel points (in 11 minutes of playing time) and 36.5 points in his most recent game (in 39 minutes). Dragic is a very safe option with a high floor, but he also doesn’t possess the highest ceiling as we’ve seen since his promotion into the starting lineup.
Gordon Hayward (BOS): $10,000
The high-priced free agent for the Celtics has finally returned to the court, totaling 29 and 25.9 FanDuel points in his first two contests back. Interestingly enough, Hayward has gotten some decent run in his first two games, totaling 30 and 29 minutes of playing time. Obviously, his ceiling is capped without a legitimate workload, but the early returns have been positive for Hayward and he is receiving enough run to be an option on tonight’s slate, particularly at this price point.
Marcus Smart (BOS): $10,000
After putting together a tremendous series against the Toronto Raptors, Smart hasn’t been able to recapture the same magic in the ECF. While he’s still scoring the ball effectively, he hasn’t been nearly the same player on the defensive end statistically that we’ve become accustomed to. Smart is the type of player who typically turns it up a notch in situations like tonight’s game, so that is something to consider when constructing your lineups.
Jae Crowder (MIA): $9,500
Crowder doesn’t offer a great ceiling, but he also has one of the highest floors on the slate and is basically as consistent as an NBA player can be. In the four games in this series, Crowder has scored less than 27.8 FanDuel points only once, with that instance being the only time it’s happened in the last eight games. If you’re looking for a safe option at a good price tag, Crowder is exactly the type of player you’ll want to round out your lineup.
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