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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (9/5)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Sep 5, 2020

Welcome back for another Saturday edition of FanDuel strategy advice! On today’s slate, we have the Raptors and Celtics Game 4 which tips at 6:30PM followed by the Nuggets and Clippers Game 2 which tips at 9:00PM. Boston has controlled its series and nearly went up three games to none until OG Anunoby delivered a game-winning three as time expired. After a grueling seven-game series against Utah, Denver looked exhausted and was dispatched handily by the Clippers.

As always, we’ll name the best value options at each position as well as some studs to pay up for and notable players to fade. Let’s get to it!

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Value Plays

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Lou Williams (LAC) DEN $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Monte Morris (DEN) LAC $4,200 ⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Williams is not the most reliable producer in the world, but his upside is unquestioned. The elite scorer is always a threat to go off and rack up 30+ FD points, and with so few quality options after the elite tier of point guards, Williams is my favorite low-cost target.
  • Point guard is top-heavy here, without a lot of reliable options in the bargain range. However, if I’m looking to save some coin, the best of the rest is Monte Morris. He was moved to the bench for Game 1 in favor of Gary Harris, but Harris has continued to struggle mightily, and Morris has been solid even when his minutes wane.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Fred VanVleet (TOR) BOS $7,700 ⭐⭐ Low
Marcus Smart (BOS TOR $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • This is a tough position to find value, so I’ll pay up for FVV’s 45-point upside. He’s averaged just shy of 39 FD points in three games against Boston. I like him more than the similarly-priced Paul George, who’s topped out at 39.6 FD points in the bubble.
  • Smart comes with an affordable price tag for Game 4, as he’s more than capable of going off for 35+ FD points due to his all-around game. He’s been particularly effective from three in the current playoff series, so an offensive eruption is always a possibility.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jaylen Brown (BOS) TOR $7,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
OG Anunoby (TOR) BOS $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • Fresh off a buzzer-beating game winner, Anunoby will look to carry positive momentum into a Game 4 that Toronto needs to win to stay competitive against Boston in this series. Through three games against the Celtics, Anunoby has averaged nearly 32 FD points per contest.
  • Brown’s salary is a little high to be considered a value, but he’s averaged better than 40 FD points per game over his last two, and he looks like he’s finding his groove. Small forward is a mess on this slate, and Brown is a fine play here.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Daniel Theis (BOS) TOR $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Marcus Morris (LAC) DEN $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • At just $5,400, Theis is always worth a low-budget addition, especially since he starts at center for Boston. Minutes and opportunity aren’t a problem for the big man, and he’s put together a strong series against the Raptors thus far, averaging just over 1.0 FD point per minute. That type of production isn’t earth shattering, but at this price point, he’s got a great chance to hit value while taking it easy on the salary cap.
  • Morris is coming off a 33-point outing in the Game 1 blowout win over Denver, and he’s been a reliable contributor for the Clippers in the playoffs. He’s averaged better than 30 minutes per contest in six playoff games (not counting his ejection in the Game 6 win over Dallas in Round 1) and contributed at least 27 FD points five times. Take advantage of the undervalued price tag.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Montrezl Harrell/Ivica Zubac (LAC) DEN $5,300/$4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ High/Low
Robert Williams (BOS) TOR $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Harrell is coming off one of his best games in the playoffs, and while he’s only topped out at 22 minutes in any game in which he’s played in the bubble, the upside is still there despite the unstable floor. Meanwhile, Zubac is steady and methodical with consistent mid-20s FD-point production. Harrell’s the play in tournaments, while Zubac is better suited for cash games.
  • I’ll take a shot on Williams in tournament play because of his strong point-per-minute abilities. He’s averaged 1.3 FD points per minute over Boston’s first three games against Toronto while playing 16 minutes per contest. If he hits that minutes total in Game 4, he can be expected to score 20 FD points, which is almost 7x value for a guy priced near the minimum salary.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Kyle Lowry (TOR) $9,000: With Siakam struggling, Lowry has been Toronoto’s engine, averaging nearly 50 FD points over his last two outings.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,500: Leonard wasn’t needed for a big performance in Game 1, as the Clippers dismantled Denver quickly. This one should be a little more competitive, and Leonard finished with no fewer than 50 FD points in all six of his previous playoff games.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $9,500: The center position is Jokic at $9.5K then a steep drop to Montrezl Harrell at $5.3K. I’ll gladly pay for the 60-point upside.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jamal Murray (DEN) $9,000: After carrying Denver through the first round thanks to some dazzling offense, Murray looks completely gassed. He’s averaged 26 FD points over his last two contests after averaging a whopping 67.8 across the previous three. He has the ability to far exceed this price tag, but it looks like the gas tank is on ‘E.’
  • Pascal Siakam (TOR) $8,200: Spicy P has looked mighty bland against Boston, and aside from a big Game 2, his fantasy production has been completely lackluster. With his shot not falling and contributions slim in the ancillary categories, Siakam is a fade at $8.2K.
  • Paul Millsap (DEN) $5,000: Millsap is coming off a big game, where he posted 35.8 FD points in 23 minutes of action. In three games prior, he averaged less than 9.0 FD points across 17 minutes, making him a fade tonight.

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Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.

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