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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (9/27)

by Vaughn Dalzell | @VaughnDalzell | Featured Writer
Sep 27, 2020

Goran Dragic has played back-to-back fantastic games for the Heat.

The NBA has a one-game slate for Sunday’s action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!

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Value Plays: Point Guard

Goran Dragic (MIA) BOS $10,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kemba Walker (BOS)  MIA $11,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brad Wanamaker (BOS) MIA $7,500 High

Goran Dragic has played back-to-back fantastic games for the Heat. He’s scored 22 or more points after dropping 11 points in Game 3.  Dragic added nine rebounds and sevens assists combined in his last two games and played 36 minutes while battling foul trouble in Game 5. He’s been Mr. Reliable in the postseason, averaging  21.4 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds in 14 postseason games as the starting point guard for the Heat.

Kemba Walker failed to score 20 points after dealing with foul trouble in Game 5 but had 15 points and seven assists. He only played 28 minutes, so he will be well-rested for Game 6, coming off his worst-scoring performance in the ECF. He’s made three or more triples in four-straight games now and averaging 8.6 three-pointers per game in the ECF. I’d back him to surpass 20 points and have an all-around great night.

Brad Wanamaker is more valuable than the Heat’s backup point guard, Kendrick Nunn, once again headed into Game 6. Neither are notable selections for tonight, and both come at high risk. It’s either Dragic or Walker in Game 6 for the sixth-straight time.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler (MIA) BOS $15,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Marcus Smart (BOS) MIA $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Tyler Herro (MIA) BOS $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Jimmy Butler did a little bit of everything with 17 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. He, too, dealt with foul trouble, but still found success when he was on the floor. Butler only attempted 11 field-goals, something that should increase in Game 6. Butler played 36 minutes, two minutes below his average, and I’d expect 40-plus minutes in a put-away game with no foul trouble. He’s a sold DFS selection based on his numerous all-around performances.

Marcus Smart did it once again. Like Butler, he had his hand in every aspect of the Celtics’ success. He posted 12 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists with four steals in 40 minutes. He brought the energy and almost double-doubled for the second-straight game. Smart’s averaging 16.4 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.2 rebounds in the ECF. He’s a reliable stream on the one-game slate and possible double-double waiting to happen.

Tyler Herro followed up his career-high performance with 14 points on 6-of-12 (50%) shooting and three rebounds. While it didn’t live up to his previous game of 37 points, six rebounds, and three assists, he did keep his scoring streak alive. 14-straight games in the postseason (all of them), he’s scored double-digits and 21-straight overall. He’s worth the final spot or two in your lineup.

Small Forward

Jaylen Brown (BOS) MIA $12,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Gordon Hayward (BOS) MIA $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jae Crowder (MIA) BOS $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Jaylen Brown filled up the stat sheet with a series-high 28 points and eight rebounds in game 5. He played 39 minutes and went 12-of-23 (52.2%) from the field. The most impressive aspect of his game is he’s made four three-pointers in back-to-back games and shot both 54% from the field and three in the series. With 128.3 fantasy points in his last three games, he’s a must-play and worth one of the STAR or PRO spots.

Gordon Hayward took a step back in Game 5 with his fantasy production. He went from 25.9 in Game 4 to 17.6 fantasy points in Game 5. His 10 points were positive, but in his 30 minutes, Hayward failed to do much else, recording three rebounds and two assists. As much of a fan I am of Hayward and his return to the Celtics and what it means for the series, he’s not DFS material.

Jae Crowder bounced back nicely after his three-point performance in Game 4. Crowder has scored double-digits in eight of his last 10 games, dating back to Game 1 versus the Bucks. He scored 14 points in Game 5 without making a three-pointer, the first time he did that in 22 games. If he had made his ECF average of 2.4, he would’ve scored 20 points. I’d rather have him than Hayward moving forward.

Power Forward/Center

Bam Adebayo (MIA) BOS $14,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MIA $16,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Daniel Theis (BOS) MIA $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐ High

Bam Adebayo took a step back in Game 5, which was concerning after injuring his wrist in Game 5. Adebayo didn’t look like himself at times, and Theis impact affected his production. His three-game double-double streak ended, and so did his 20-point scoring streak after three games. For the first time all series, he could be a pass tonight as the Celtics trio of Tatum, Brown, and Walker are more appealing.

Jayson Tatum scored a game-high and series-high 31 points for the Celtics, just when the end looked near, they came alive. Tatum again had a second-half to remember, and double-doubled with 10 boards, adding an impressive six assists as well. He played 43 minutes, the most since Game 1, and he should hover around that number heading into a second-straight elimination game.

Daniel Theis had his best game of the series with his first double-double of 15 points and 13 rebounds. That was a monster game by his standards, and after a near-double in Game 4 of eight points and points rebounds, he’s a questionable play in Game 6. Theis is a wildcard for DFS, and if you’re selecting him, you’re taking a risk. Like Game 5, it could pay off, but I’d revert to Crowder or Smart over Theis.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jayson Tatum (BOS), $16,000: Tatum is my selection for MVP status tonight in DFS. He’s coming off a 30-point double-double and only he and Brown are capable of posting those types of numbers.
  • Jaylen Brown (BOS), $12,500: Brown erupted in Game 5, and he’s an option to have back-to-back monster games in the second closeout contest.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS), $11,500: Walker played his fewest minutes of the series, but battled foul trouble. He should be a full-go and well-rested in Game 6.
  • Marcus Smart (BOS). $11,000: Smart almost triple-double in Game 5, and he’s going to be a double-double threat in Game 6.
  • Goran Dragic (MIA), $10,500: Dragic has averaged 21.4 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds in the 14-game postseason.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Gordon Hayward (BOS), $10,000: Hayward’s DFS production has decreased each of the three ECF games he’s played.
  • Brad Wanamaker, (BOS), $7,500: The bench is in the series is limited in DFS and neither he nor Nunn are worth selections.
  • Kendrick Nunn, (MIA), $6,500: Nunn has been irrelevant in the postseason and he’s a fade for all series and beyond if the Heat win.
  • Enes Kanter, (BOS), $7,000: Kanter only played 10 minutes but had eight points and four rebounds. Not enough minutes for a utility selection.
  • Kelly Olynyk, (MIA), $6,500: Olynk is another case of a player not earning enough minutes for a DFS selection on a one-game slate.

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.

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