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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (9/24)

by Vaughn Dalzell | @VaughnDalzell | Featured Writer
Sep 24, 2020

Jamal Murray is arguably the top DFS option for the Denver Nuggets tonight.

The NBA has a one-game slate for Thursday’s action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!

Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel >>

Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jamal Murray (DEN) LAL $13,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Rajon Rondo (LAL) DEN $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Alex Caruso (LAL) DEN $8,000 High

 
Jamal Murray is arguably the top DFS option for the Denver Nuggets tonight. He recorded 57.6 fantasy points in Game 3 on 28 points, 12 assists, and eight rebounds. He’s been hot for quite some time and posted 45 or more fantasy points in three of the last four games overall. He’s played 44 minutes in two-straight games and will most likely make it three-straight in Game 4.

Rajon Rondo once again posted a near double-double as he had nine points and eight assists. He’s recorded at least eight assists in all three games versus Denver, and his nine points in Game 3 were the highest of the series. He played 30 minutes, his second time in the postseason, but Rondo’s unlikely to play 30 again in Game 4. He’s one of the utility players to consider for tonight’s slate.

Alex Caruso had his lowest fantasy output of the series, with 12.7 fantasy points in his previous game. He scored two points and had three assists in 24 minutes. In Game 4, he’s going to be a fade, and it’s either Murray and Rondo or Murray and nothing else at the point guard position.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) DEN $7,500 ⭐⭐ Medium
Danny Green (LAL) DEN $9,000 High
Gary Harris (DEN) LAL $10,000 High

 
The shooting guard is a weak position in the series, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is arguably the best DFS option. KCP has posted two games of 20 or more fantasy points and another of 18.9 in the series. He’s scored double-digits in five-straight games and played 26 or more minutes in all three WCF games. At this rate, 20 fantasy points are all you would need from a shooting guard in this series.

Gary Harris had 10.5 fantasy points in Game 3, his most in the series, and Danny Green has a finger injury after a 10.3 fantasy performance. If Green can’t go or will be limited, Rondo will be a better DFS option. Green had two gams of 24 or more fantasy points in Games 1 and 2, and Harris was borderline irrelevant in lineups.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) DEN $16,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Markieff Morris (LAL) DEN $8,500 ⭐⭐ High
Jared Dudley (LAL) DEN $6,000 High

 
LeBron James is the best player remaining in the postseason, and he’s showed it as of late. He triple-doubled in Game 3 with 30 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds for 64.5 fantasy points. It was his fifth-straight double-double or better and six of the last seven overall. The King’s been rolling on all cylinders during the postseason, and I doubt he slows now.

Markieff Morris is barely considered an option in DFS, while Jared Dudley is a pass. Dudley has only entered the game once during the series, so the small forward position is a one-man show if you can’t tell by now. Morris showed flashes of potential in the series with 17.7 fantasy points in Game 1 on nine points and two steals, but since then, he’s only scored three points and 6.2 fantasy points in 19 minutes.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anthony Davis (LAL) DEN $15,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jerami Grant (DEN) LAL $11,500 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) LAL $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Anthony Davis is the number two player on the DFS slate behind LeBron for me. AD’s scored at least 27 points in all three games and failed to record nine or more rebounds for the first time in the series. Davis had 52 fantasy points in two-straight games before his 30.9 fantasy performance in Game 3. I’m expecting him to get back to that in Game 4.

Jerami Grant scored a postseason-high 26 points in Game 3 but didn’t do much else. He’s averaging 3.2 rebounds for the entire playoffs, and he failed to total 20 or more fantasy points for four-straight games before Game 3. He comes with a risk if you attempt to ride his high.

Michael Porter Jr. remains a solid play in DFS as he’s always a near double-double option. MPJ had 33 fantasy points in Game 1 and combined for only 40 fantasy points in Games 2 and 3. He’s taken a step back but has also played fewer minutes over the last two. After 28 minutes in Game 1, MPJ only registered 19 and 21 minutes over his next two. If he gets the necessary minutes, he’s a sleeper in DFS.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Jokic (DEN) LAL $15,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Dwight Howard (LAL) DEN $8,000 High
JaVale McGee (LAL) DEN $7,000 High

 
None of these centers are worth having on a one-game slate beside Nikola Jokic. The Serbian has done it all for the Nuggets, including register his first double-double of the series in Game 3. Jokic had 22 points and 10 rebounds as Denver earned their first win. He totaled 42.5 fantasy points, his second-highest total in the series, and 37 minutes, his second-straight game meeting that total.

Jokic’s liable to double-double once again, and I’d have to pass on Dwight Howard and Javale McGee. I would be shocked if the two players even combined for half the production Jokic will do in Game 4. It’s Jokic or nothing at the center position. Jokic’s an option for the MVP and STAR spots if you pass on LeBron or AD.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • LeBron James (LAL), $16,500: LeBron is coming off leading the Lakers in points, rebounds, and assists. Something he’s done in three-of-13 games during the postseason. 
  • Anthony Davis (LAL), $15,500: Anthony Davis is the leading scorer in the series, and he should be back to his rebounding form after an underwhelming two total boards and zero in the first half.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN), $15,000: Jokic’s first double-double of the season is a positive sign for his outlook as his scoring has been his most consistent attribute in this series. 
  • Jamal Murray (DEN), $13,000: Either Jokic or Murray have led the team in scoring every game, and they’ve done the same in assists for all but one game. 
  • Michael Porter Jr. (DEN), $9,500: MPJ may have seen a dip in production, but he could see increased minutes in Game 4 after a higher-scoring Game 3. He’s worth the risk in Game 4.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Gary Harris (DEN), $10,500: Harris has taken a step back all 2019-20, and the postseason it has continued. He’s struggled to record 10 fantasy points in too many contests this season. 
  • Torrey Craig (DEN), $7,500: Craig hasn’t topped 12.9 fantasy points in the series, and in Game 3, he only scored two points.
  • Paul Millsap (DEN), $9,000: Millsap hasn’t recorded more than 20 fantasy points in five-straight games but played 20 or more in all five.
  • Alex Caruso (LAL), $8,000: Caruso is coming off his worst performance in the postseason yet. He’s a hard fade as Rondo should see increased minutes.
  • Kyle Kuzma (LAL), $9,500: I’ve been waiting on Kuzma to have that big game or make his mark on this team, but it’s looking like it’ll never come as LeBon and AD continue to takeover. 

Get free betting picks for the Lakers vs. Nuggets at BettingPros >>

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.

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