FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Tuesday (9/15)
The NBA has a two-game slate for Tuesday’s action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!
Value Plays: Point Guard
|Goran Dragic (MIA)||BOS||$7,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Lou Williams (LAC)||DEN||$5,500||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Patrick Beverley (LAC)||DEN||$4,800||⭐⭐⭐||High|
Goran Dragic continued his tear in the semifinals against Milwaukee, as he averaged 19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. He played 35.4 minutes per game for Miami in the semifinals and 34.3 in the first round versus Indiana. He’s a reliable and stable selection in DFS, and in his two meetings with Boston, he averaged 21.5 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in 29.0 minutes.
Lou Williams scored double-digits in five-of-six games in this series versus Denver, but only averages 10.5 points per game in 25.7 minutes. Williams has shot 37.1% in the semifinals, down from 47.4% and 16.0 points per game in the first round.
The return of teammate Patrick Beverley to the starting lineup has affected the guard play and limited time for him, Reggie Jackson, Landry Shamet, and Williams. Beverley scored two points in Game 6, and he has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in his last three games. They’re both risk plays, with Williams being the safer option of the two.
|Marcus Smart (BOS)||MIA||$6,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Tyler Herro (MIA)||BOS||$5,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Gary Harris (DEN)||LAC||$5,700||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Marcus Smart’s time in the starting lineup could be coming to an end with Gordon Hayward nearing a return, but he’s been phenomenal. Smart has averaged 15.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in 39.4 minutes in the semifinals. He is a reliable streamer in DFS, and his all-around playmaking ability makes him a low-risk player.
Tyler Herro has been a pleasant surprise in the postseason for the Heat. Herro’s recorded double-digit points in nine-straight postseason games and his last 16 overall. He’s a scoring machine off the bench for Miami, and the Heat will need that to beat the Celtics. Herro averaged 16.5 points per game in the first round and 13.2 in the second.
Gary Harris scored a personal series-high of 16 points in Game 6, and he added four steals for 32.4 fantasy points in 42 minutes. He played 50 combined minutes in Games 4 and 5 for Denver, then 42 in Game 6, so who knows how many minutes we should expect to see Harris in Game 7. He’ll likely be involved in the gameplan more than the rest of the series, but he still comes with risk, as he plays alongside Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
|Jaylen Brown (BOS)||MIA||$7,800||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Jae Crowder (MIA)||BOS||$5,100||⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Jerami Grant (DEN)||LAC||$4,900||⭐⭐⭐||High|
Jaylen Brown went off in the last three games of the series against Toronto, and he averaged 26.3 points and 10.0 rebounds on 47.3 fantasy points. He’s hot as he heads into the Eastern Conference Finals, and he played 35 or more minutes in six-straight games. Brown played 31 and 38 minutes in his two Game 1’s this season, and he averaged 38.1 fantasy points in them.
Jae Crowder opened up the semifinals with nine points and nine rebounds, and then he recorded at least 16 points in the next four games. He totaled 29 or more fantasy points in all four. He’s on a mini scoring streak, and he’s played at least 30 minutes in his last four overall. He’s a risky selection versus a formidable defensive unit in Boston but could be worth a stab in a few leagues if you pass on Kawhi Leonard or Brown.
Jerami Grant played between 34-40 minutes in Games 2-5 for the Nuggets, but he only managed 20 minutes on four personal fouls and went 0-for-3 from the field in Game 6. He’s received the playing time to make an impact in DFS and be a reliable streamer. For Game 7, he’s a risky pick, and your bankroll would be best used on another option.
|Daniel Theis (BOS)||MIA||$5,600||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Michael Porter Jr. (DEN)||LAC||$5,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Marcus Morris Sr. (LAC)||DEN||$5,100||⭐⭐⭐||High|
Daniel Theis has averaged 12.6 points and 6.6 rebounds over his last three games for the Celtics and 10.1 points and 8.3 rebounds for the semifinals. He gave Boston 30.1 minutes per game versus Toronto, an uptick from his 22.5 minutes versus Philadelphia in the first round. Theis has played 25 minutes and averaged 11 points and nine rebounds in two Game 1s.
Michael Porter Jr. has scored double-digits in four of the last five games for the Nuggets. He’s played 22 or more minutes in his previous four overall, and he’s averaging 11.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in 24.2 minutes. Those are impressive numbers for his limited court time.
Marcus Morris Sr. has averaged 11.5 points and 3.8 rebounds in the semifinals with five double-digit scoring games. He had a series-low five points in Game 6 and added three rebounds and one assist for a disappointing finish in an even more disappointing loss. He’s likely to see increased minutes in a Game 7 tonight, but he comes with some risk, as he’ll likely defer scoring and rebounds to George and Leonard.
|Nikola Jokic (DEN)||LAC||$10,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Montrezl Harrell (LAC)||DEN||$5,000||⭐⭐||High|
|Ivica Zubac (LAC)||DEN||$4,700||⭐⭐||High|
Nikola Jokic is the clear-cut must-play at the center position tonight. On a two-game slate, there are not many options outside of the Clippers duo of Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac. Jokic has put together quite the series — he’s averaging 25.8 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in six games. Neither Harrell nor Zubac will put up half the fantasy points he will tonight, so I’ll save you the time in thinking about anyone other than Jokic.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,200: He had 30 points, 14 rebounds, and four assists in Game 7 versus Utah in their 80-78 win in the first round.
- Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,800: Tatum has met Miami twice this season and averaged 21.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 33.3 minutes. He averaged 24.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in the semifinals.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,600: Leonard is averaging 26.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in the semifinals versus the Nuggets. He’s a must-play in a Game 7 situation.
- Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,000: Butler has averaged 34.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in his two Game 1s this season versus Indiana and Milwaukee.
- Paul George (LAC) $7,900: PG13 is the No. 2 in the Clippers offense and one of two top-tier options at shooting guard along with Butler. George is averaging 23.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in the series with Denver.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Reggie Jackson (LAC) $4,200: Jackson hasn’t played a minute in the last three games — likely due to Beverley’s return.
- Robert Williams (BOS) $4,000: Williams had three games of 10.2 fantasy points or fewer in Games 5-7 of the series versus Toronto.
- Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $4,200: Nunn played a postseason-high 21 minutes in Game 5 versus the Bucks for 15.9 fantasy points. I’d somewhat back Dragic for the guaranteed production instead.
- Paul Millsap (DEN) $4,700: Milsap followed up his 27.7 fantasy point performance with six points and five rebounds for 17 fantasy points in Game 6. He’s a pass once again for Game 7.
- Duncan Robinson (MIA) $5,300: Robinson got cold in the semifinals, and he scored six points or fewer in three games. He struggled to find his shot outside of Games 2 and 4, and I’d proceed with caution versus Boston.
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