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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Wednesday (9/23)

by Vaughn Dalzell | @VaughnDalzell | Featured Writer
Sep 23, 2020

The NBA has a one-game slate for Wednesday’s action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!

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Value Plays: Point Guard

Goran Dragic (MIA) BOS $10,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kemba Walker (BOS)  MIA $11,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brad Wanamaker (BOS) MIA $7,500 ⭐⭐ High

Goran Dragic’s 11 points and five assists for 14.7 fantasy points marked his lowest playoff output so far. That one game doesn’t take away from what he’s been able to do all postseason, however, so with four days off, he should have a better performance in Game 4. Dragic has averaged 21.3 points, 4.7 assists, and 4.3 rebounds in 12 postseason games as the starting point guard for the Heat.

Kemba Walker has scored 21 or more in two-straight games in the series, and he shot 50 percent from the field in Game 3’s win for Boston. He’s made four three-pointers in each of his past two games and played 40 or more minutes in five of his last seven games overall. He’s been an instrumental piece to the Celtics, and he’s one of my favorite options for another 20-point night.

Brad Wanamaker is more valuable than the Heat’s backup point guard, Kendrick Nunn. Neither are stable picks tonight, and both come at high risk, so I’d go with one or both when it comes to Dragic or Walker in Game 4.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler (MIA) BOS $14,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Marcus Smart (BOS) MIA $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Tyler Herro (MIA) BOS $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Jimmy Butler got benched for the final 46 seconds of Game 3 in favor of a three-point shooting lineup, which left him frustrated. He scored 17 points and has failed to surpass 20 in this series, but tonight could the night he breaks through. He’s registered between 34-37 fantasy points in all three ECF games and comes at a low risk for another 30-point fantasy night. I would lean toward the 40-point fantasy range and a little beyond for Butler tonight.

Marcus Smart added another terrific game to his resume, as he kept his spot in the starting lineup with Gordon Hayward’s return. Smart recorded 31.8 fantasy points in Game 3 on 20 points, six assists, and four rebounds. He had 28.1 and 26.8 fantasy points in Games 1 and 2 of the series, consistent numbers making him one of the safer picks.

Tyler Herro has still scored double-digits in every postseason game, and he extended his streak to 19 games overall, dating back to the regular-season bubble. In Game 3, he had 22 points, four rebounds, and four assists in 36 minutes. He’s recorded four-straight games of 29 or more fantasy points and totaled 34.8 in Game 3.

Small Forward

Jaylen Brown (BOS) MIA $13,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Gordon Hayward (BOS) MIA $11,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jae Crowder (MIA) BOS $9,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Jaylen Brown had his second 50-point fantasy night of the postseason with 51.9 in Game 3. He recorded 26 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and three steals. He’s played 39 or more minutes in all three games against the Heat in the ECF, so he’s a safe pick in Game 4.

I’d fade Gordon Hayward tonight. His 31 minutes were impressive in his return, and the fact he’s coming off the bench is interesting for his DFS value. How well he plays remains to be seen, but six points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals is a solid start.

Jae Crowder is someone I’d rather have than Hayward tonight. Crowder has scored double-digits in seven-straight games and in nine of his last 10 overall. He’s totaled 27 or more fantasy points in seven-straight games as well, and he recorded his most rebounds (6) and assists (5) of the series in Game 3. His 10 points were his second-lowest in the past 10 games, but he played 32 minutes in Game 3. He could see an increase in minutes for Game 4, and if so, he should outscore Hayward.

Power Forward/Center

Bam Adebayo (MIA) BOS $15,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MIA $16,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Daniel Theis (BOS) MIA $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High

Bam Adebayo and Jayson Tatum are just about the two safest picks you can make all night. On this one-game slate, they are both the best options to have 40-point plus fantasy performances. Adebayo has scored 44 or more in all three games and had a postseason-high of 59.7 fantasy points in Game 3. He totaled 27 points, 16 rebounds, three steals, and three blocks in 37 minutes.

On the other hand, Tatum has had two 50-point fantasy performances in the series, including Game 3’s total of 51.8 fantasy points. Tatum had 25 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists in Game 3, nearly recording a triple-double. Tatum’s played 41 or more minutes in all three ECF games and is my favorite pick on the Boston side tonight.

Daniel Theis has had issues containing Adebyao throughout the series, and Enes Kanter and Robert Williams have started to play extended minutes because of it. He’s a fade for me, as he is unlikely to double-double the rest of the series. He has failed to surpass 20 fantasy points in every game of the series and his last four overall.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $16,000: Tatum has been a double-double machine in the postseason with 25.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $15,5000: Adebayo is the only other player in the ECF to average a double-double with 17.7 points and 11.4 rebounds in the postseason.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $14,000: Butler hasn’t managed to have that classic Jimmy Buckets game yet this series, so I bet Game 4 will be it.
  • Jaylen Brown (BOS) $13,000: Brown is the next best bet outside of Tatum to record a double-double or have a robust all-around fantasy performance.
  • Goran Dragic (MIA) $10,500: Dragic had his worst game of the postseason, and his stock has dropped pretty low for Game 4. He’s still worth a buy and could post the same or more fantasy points than Kemba Walker.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Gordon Hayward (BOS) $11,000: Hayward’s 31 minutes were a positive sign, but he’s likely not one of the five or six highest DFS leaders in Game 4.
  • Duncan Robinson (MIA) $8,500: Robinson had his best game of the series in Game 3, but I’ll need to see more consistency against Boston before he enters my lineup.
  • Brad Wanamaker (BOS) $7,500: The two point guards (Dragic, Walker) are so crucial in this series that their backups (Nunn, Wanamaker) are non-winning picks in DFS.
  • Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $6,500: Nunn has only played nine combined minutes in the past two games. He’s becoming irrelevant to the Miami rotation.
  • Andre Iguodala (MIA) $6,500: The most experienced member of the Heat has played 28 total minutes in three ECF games. Pass on him, as his 9.7 fantasy points in Game 1 marked his best performance of the ECF.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.

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