FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Wednesday (9/30)
The NBA has a one-game slate for Wednesday’s action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!
Value Plays: Point Guard
|Goran Dragic (MIA)||LAL||$10,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Rajon Rondo (LAL)||MIA||$10,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Alex Caruso (LAL)||MIA||$7,000||⭐⭐||High|
Goran Dragic is having one hell of a postseason for the Miami Heat. Entering his first-ever NBA Finals, he’s undoubtedly one of the guards on the short list of plays today. Dragic averaged 20.9 points, 4.7 assists, and 4.2 rebounds in 15 playoff games as the starting point guard after only starting two games in the regular season. He has recorded 27 or more fantasy points in eight of-10 games.
Rajon Rondo has played 10 games since returning from injury, recording 9.1 points, 7.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds. He’s only double-doubled once, but he’s been one or two assists away from a double-double five times. Versus the Heat, Rondo played 25 minutes and didn’t record a point in his single meeting. He’s a slight risk, but he’s one of the most experienced players in this NBA Finals.
Alex Caruso will play in the biggest game of his career, and he’s coming off a 22.4-point fantasy performance with 11 points, four rebounds, and two assists. In five games versus Denver, he failed to record more than 17 fantasy points three times. Selecting Caruso saves money for the stars in this matchup, but overall he will likely hold your DFS squad back.
|Jimmy Butler (MIA)||LAL||$14,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Tyler Herro (MIA)||LAL||$11,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Danny Green (LAL)||MIA||$9,000||⭐⭐||High|
Jimmy Butler recorded 34 or more fantasy points in all six games versus the Celtics in the ECF and 38 or more in his last three overall. He has scored 20 points in two of his previous three games and dished eight assists in consecutive games. Jimmy Buckets involved his teammates across the entire postseason; Butler has averaged 20.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 15 contests. He’s worth one of the big three spots in DFS tonight.
Tyler Herro is an interesting play in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He’s had a tremendous postseason, scoring double-digits in all 15 games and extending his scoring streak to 22 straight games, dating back to the regular season. Herro had a career performance in Game 4 with 47.7 fantasy points on 37 points, but he hasn’t had any success versus the Lakers. In the two regular-season meetings with L.A., Herro averaged 7.5 points and 2.5 rebounds in 23.5 minutes. I expect him to surpass those numbers handily, but don’t anticipate a 30-plus fantasy night in his first Finals.
Danny Green is a wild card in the postseason, and he was particularly hit or miss in the WCF series. Greem recorded more than 20 fantasy points in Games 1, 4, and 5 while failing to total more than 10.3 in Games 2 and 3. He’s played between 21 and 28 minutes in eight straight games, not recording 30 minutes since Game 2 of the semifinals. Green has been losing a few minutes to Rondo off the bench and is a pass for me tonight.
|LeBron James (LAL)||MIA||$15,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Jae Crowder (MIA)||LAL||$9,500||⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Markieff Morris Sr. (LAL)||MIA||$7,000||⭐⭐||High|
LeBron James‘ revenge tour is almost at its conclusion, and I don’t know one person who wants it to stop. James has averaged a near triple-double in the postseason with 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists over 15 games while playing 35.0 minutes per contest. The Lakers have handled his minutes well, so we could see him play 40-plus minutes across most of this series. James has only played two games with 4o or more minutes in the postseason, and he triple-doubled in both, averaging 30.5 points, 16.5 rebounds, and 13.0 assists.
Jae Crowder has struggled in his last three games from deep, going 2-of-18 (11.1%). Versus the Lakers, however, Crowder registered a combined 30 points and 11 rebounds in two regular-season meetings and went 5-of-15 (33.3%) from three. He’s been a streaky selection in DFS all postseason and may have a more defensive mindset heading into Game 1 rather than scoring. Crowder comes with a risk, but he could pay off.
Markieff Morris Sr. is a fade for me. He recorded three points and three rebounds for 7.6 fantasy points in his previous game and failed to surpass 20 fantasy points in every game of the WCF series. He’s a wait-and-see play that comes with a high-risk.
|Anthony Davis (LAL)||MIA||$14,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Bam Adebayo (MIA)||LAL||$13,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Kyle Kuzma (LAL)||MIA||$8,000||⭐⭐||High|
Anthony Davis has scored at will during the postseason as LeBron’s right-hand man. A.D. has averaged 28.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in 15 playoff games. The Lakers’ big man averaged 31.2 points per game in the WCF versus the Nuggets. The Heat haven’t faced a versatile big man like Davis in the postseason, so he’s one of my three favorite plays tonight along with James and Butler.
Bam Adebayo is another versatile big man, but he has the toughest matchup of the series versus Davis. Although taking both big men could pay off in DFS lineups, it comes at a major expense. Adebayo had a monster Game 6 to put the Celtics away, recording 31 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists for 57.3 fantasy points. Don’t expect that versus A.D., but his four double-doubles in his past five games make me think it’s possible for another 20-point and 10-rebound game.
Kyle Kuzma failed to total 20 or more fantasy points in all five games versus the Nuggets but surpassed that in three of five games against the Rockets. He’s another wild card who comes at a high risk in his first-ever NBA Finals. Kuzma hasn’t recorded more than four rebounds since Game 2 of the semifinals and has only reached three assists once.
|Dwight Howard (LAL)||MIA||$8,000||⭐⭐||High|
|JaVale McGee (LAL)||MIA||$6,500||⭐||High|
|Kelly Olynyk (MIA)||LAL||$6,500||⭐||High|
Dwight Howard has made some noise in the past two games for the Lakers. He’s registered 23.8 and 29.7 fantasy points off 21 points and 20 rebounds total. Howard double-doubled in 22 minutes of Game 4 with 12 points and 11 rebounds and finished one point and one rebound short of another in Game 5. Howard is risky, but he’s still the safest option out of all the centers tonight.
JaVale McGee only played 36 total minutes in the WCF and recorded seven points and eight rebounds. Howard stole the spotlight, and Davis has been so efficient that they don’t need McGee, nor have much use for him.
Kelly Olynyk could get left to the wayside in this series, as he doesn’t match up well with any of the Lakers’ bigs. Olynyk could see some time if the Heat trail or need three-point shooting, but overall it’s Adebayo or Davis as the bigs. Any other choice will most likely be a mistake, and Howard is the only center worth selecting at this point.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- LeBron James (LAL), $15,500: James is my No. 1 choice for the MVP spot in lineups, and chances are he’s going to double-double again.
- Anthony Davis (LAL), $14,500: Davis balled out for 31.2 points in the WCF and could easily be the leading scorer throughout the majority of the NBA Finals. If he fixes his recent rebounding issues, he’s a serious threat for Finals MVP.
- Bam Adebayo (MIA), $13,500: Adebayo is coming off his most points scored on the entire season, a playoff career-high, and his second 30-point game of the 2019-20 regular season and postseason.
- Jimmy Butler (MIA), $14,000: Butler may not post as many fantasy points as Adebayo, but he could lead the team in points and assists as the engine that makes this Heat team go.
- Goran Dragic (MIA), $10,500: Dragic has scored 20 or more points in four of his last six games overall and surpassed 29 fantasy points in four games during that span.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Kyle Kuzma (LAL), $8,000: Kuzma is going to have to show me something in the Finals before selecting him following his underwhelming series with Denver.
- Alex Caruso (LAL), $7,000: Caruso is on the shortlist of players to fade for the night. Matched up with the Heat’s guards, Caruso should see less usage than Rondo and KCP in Game 1.
- Markieff Morris Sr. (LAL), $7,000: Morris has only surpassed 10 fantasy points in one of his last four games overall.
- Kendrick Nunn (MIA), $6,500: Nunn has barely played in the postseason, and he’s failed to record any minutes in three straight games.
- JaVale McGee (LAL), $6,500: McGee is starting to become forgotten in the Lakers’ locker room, as Davis and Howard have taken the spotlight.
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