FanDuel MLB DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (9/23)
The final Wednesday slate of the regular season is rather light with just eight games. There are only a couple aces on the bump, so picking one of them and finding value hitters is going to be key. Monitor lineups up until game time, as we are bound to see some weird lineup decisions with the season winding down. We will still be here for the postseason, so keep tuning in!
|Dean Kremer (BAL)||@ BOS||$8,000||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)||vs. BAL||$8,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Kremer has been brilliant in his major league debut, posting a 1.69 ERA and 30.8% strikeout rate over 16 innings. While the Red Sox are a slightly above-average team with the bat, I’m betting on Kremer pitching well before the league has a playbook on him. Plus, Fenway has been very favorable to pitchers with the humidor this year.
On the other side, Eovaldi has posted a 25.4% strikeout rate and minuscule 3.4% walk rate and faces an Orioles team that is 24% below league average with the bat these past two weeks. They’ve also struck out at nearly a 26% clip, higher than the league average. While Eovaldi has a lower strikeout upside than Kremer, he has a better chance at pitching deeper into the game.
Logan Webb gets the Rockies at Oracle Park on Wednesday, but Webb’s skills leave a lot to be desired (20.5% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 5.73 ERA over 48+ innings). He’s worthy of consideration in two-pitcher formats, but there’s simply too much risk here in the typical one-pitcher setup.
Catcher/ First Base
|Anthony Rizzo (CHC)||@ PIT||$3,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Renato Nunez (BAL)||@ BOS||$3,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Miguel Sano (MIN)||vs. DET||$3,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Rizzo has been slumping this season, slashing .213/.330/.383, but he loves hitting against Trevor Williams. Rizzo has seven hits and four walks against Williams in 28 plate appearances, including four extra-base hits. Anytime Rizzo qualifies as a value play, pull the trigger.
Nunez has also hit well against opposing pitcher Eovaldi, posting a 1.167 OPS against him in 13 plate appearances. Nunez has been his typical self this season, sporting a .250 average with 11 bombs.
Sano has struggled the last two weeks, posting a 29 wRC+ with nearly a 50% strikeout rate. However, he’s still crushing the ball (91.9 MPH exit velocity) in that timeframe, and Casey Mize hasn’t been the rookie phenom that everyone wanted him to be (20% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate). There’s a home run in this bat.
|Mike Brosseau (TAM)||@ NYM||$2,600||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Donovan Solano (SFG)||vs. COL||$3,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Just a friendly reminder on what Brosseau has done against lefties this year: .333/.383/.738, good for a 198 wRC+. He gets Steven Matz on Wednesday, owner of the 9.79 ERA over 26 innings this year. He’s been out of the lineup the past two games with minor injuries, but expect him to be back in the lineup.
Solano continues to play well, registering as the eighth-most productive second baseman over the past two weeks, per FanGraphs. His numbers are boosted by a sky-high .419 BABIP in that span, but it’s not like Ryan Castellani has pitched well this season (7.66 FIP in 38+ innings).
|Josh Donaldson (MIN)||vs. DET||$3,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|David Bote (CHC)||@ PIT||$2,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Tommy Edman (STL)||@ KAN||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Donaldson’s price doesn’t make sense, frankly. He is sporting a 170 wRC+ and has been a top-five third baseman for the past two weeks. His ceiling is comparable to Sano’s, but with a significantly higher floor. Expect Donaldson to be highly rostered due to this price.
Bote has performed well this season, at least in terms of the advanced metrics. He is at least in the 83rd percentile in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. While he still strikes out too much, he has a great shot at doing damage against Williams. Just make sure that he’s in the lineup first, which he should be with Kris Bryant nursing a sore oblique.
Edman is a solid cash game pick, seeing that he should get on base a few times and score some runs, but doesn’t hit for power. He does rank as a top-ten third baseman over the last two weeks and has hit lefties well this year (194 wRC+).
|Chris Taylor (LAD)||vs. OAK||$2,800||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Miguel Rojas (MIA)||@ ATL||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Marcus Semien (OAK)||vs. LAD||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Taylor is the hottest shortstop in baseball since September 12th, and 97% better than league average with the bat. His damage has largely come against righties this year, but he hits lefties about the same as he does righties for his career. He will face soft-tossing lefty Sean Manaea.
Rojas has been a monster all year, but especially the past two weeks, slashing .306/.404/.510. Yes, he faces Max Fried, but Fried hasn’t made it past five innings in his last three starts. He’s worth rostering in cash games.
Semien hasn’t done so bad himself, as he’s been the fifth hottest shortstop over the past two weeks. He has performed much better against lefties this year, slashing .237/.310/.553 against them. He will get Julio Urias on Wednesday, who has pitched well but has a sub-20% strikeout rate this year.
|Kyle Schwarber (CHC)||@ PIT||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Randy Arozarena (TAM)||@ NYM||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Hunter Renfroe (TAM)||@ NYM||$2,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Alex Verdugo (BOS)||vs. BAL||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Schwarber just happens to murder baseballs against Trevor Williams, slashing .333/.429/.750 with three homers in 28 plate appearances. He’s struggled this year, but anything can happen against the get-right Pirates.
Arozarena has mashed lefties this year, posting a ridiculous 237 wRC+ against them in a small sample of 20 at-bats. Stacking Rays against Matz is just a good strategy in general for Wednesday.
Renfroe has a much higher ceiling than Arozarena, albeit with a much lower floor. Despite the down season, he still has a 116 wRC+ against lefties this year and has historically mashed them.
Verdugo’s price also doesn’t make a ton of sense, as he’s put together a .328/.383/.511 slash line. He’ll likely hit leadoff on Wednesday, providing several opportunities to easily surpass his price.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Kenta Maeda (SP – MIN), $10,000: Maeda gets the Tigers, who are bottom-five with the bat in the last two weeks, and have the third-highest strikeout rate in the same span. Maeda should pitch deep into the game, as the Twins are seeking to knock the White Sox off the top of the AL Central.
- Mookie Betts (OF – LAD), $4,600: Betts doesn’t need a further explanation, but he pummels Sean Manaea. How does a .429/.467/.1.071 slash line in 15 plate appearances sound?
- Trevor Story (SS – COL), $4,100: Story has hit at the same level at home and on the road this year. While he doesn’t hit righties as well as lefties, Logan Webb is a below-average RHP at the moment.
- Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL), $3,600: Goldschmidt has a 187 wRC+ against lefties this year, and Danny Duffy is going off the rails recently.
- Whit Merrifield (OF – KAN), $3,500: Merrifield has been a top-ten outfielder the past two weeks, and he is close to posting a 10/10 season with a .285 average.
4 Notable Players to Fade
- Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC), $10,600: Yes, the Pirates have the grossest lineup in the NL. But, Hendricks has posted a 4.50 ERA on the road this year, and his wOBA is over 100 points higher. For his career, his wOBA on the road is 30 points higher, and his ERA is 3.75. With a low strikeout upside and the potential to not earn his price, Hendricks can be faded.
- Sixto Sanchez (SP – MIA), $8,800: Sanchez has been a rockstar this year, but got lit up in his last start against the Nationals, giving up five runs in four innings. As the dangerous Braves lineup has already seen him, they will have a chance to adapt to Sanchez’s gameplan and adjust accordingly.
- Ian Happ (OF – CHC), $3,100: Happ has struggled mightily in September, hitting 19% below league average. He also hasn’t hit Williams well, striking out six times in 18 at-bats with just one extra-base hit.
- Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL), $3,600: Swanson is outside the top-20 in shortstops over the last two weeks, and has slid down to the bottom of the order over the past few games.
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