Just 221 days separated Super Bowl LIV and Thursday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. It seems like it’s been a lot longer than that, huh?
The season opener gave the football community a sense of normalcy in what is sure to be an absolutely abnormal season. While we can’t be certain how this season plays out, or how many games will ultimately be played, we can prepare ourselves for at least one full slate of NFL games.
While we will get to the players in a second (or quicker if you choose to just scroll down the page), let’s talk game theory real quick for cash games. First and foremost, you must understand the type of game you are playing. I’m not going to delve into the differences between tournaments (GPP) and cash games here. If you’re reading this article, chances are you already know that distinction. If you don’t, here’s a breakdown from Rotowire. Long story short (TLDR): You’re not going to win a million dollars winning in a 50/50 or double-up. You can, however, build a solid bankroll that you can stretch into tournaments. Managing your bankroll is as important as the players you select.
It’s also important to understand that at the end of the day, you’re selecting the players you feel most confident about. Have a process, and don’t sour on it just because of a bad week. However, it’s important to analyze what exactly went wrong. If you stack Tom Brady and Mike Evans, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose two offensive linemen in-game, it doesn’t necessarily reflect poorly on your decision-making process. If your running back breaks a 25-yard run and takes a knee at the one-yard line to close out the game, it’s not your fault.
Likewise, however, particularly in this COVID-19 time period, pay close attention to actionable information. Perhaps the biggest in 2020 will be the inactive report that is released 90 minutes before kickoff. There are going to be unexpected absences from games. That’s a formality. Anyone that’s been playing fantasy baseball this season has undoubtedly realized the frustrations of players missing time. The information here and elsewhere across the fantasy football realm could very well be outdated mere minutes after the time it’s published. Jeff Haseley over at Footballguys.com has a phenomenal NFL Beat Writers list on Twitter that I highly recommend bookmarking (and you don’t even need a Twitter account to access that list).
Without further ado, let’s get to the discussion about Week One.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for cash game considerations in Week One of the 2020 season:
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $9,400 vs. Cleveland Browns
Jackson comes in as the second most expensive player on the slate. Does it really matter in Week 1, though? There’s an overabundance of affordable skill position players available this week. In Jackson’s three career starts against the Browns, he has averaged 86 rushing yards per game. Using Fanduel’s NFL scoring, that is equivalent to 115 passing yards and a passing touchdown.
So how has Jackson done against the Browns’ passing attack? He totaled 485 passing yards and six touchdown passes in his last two starts against them. He’s averaging 221 yards passing in his three starts against Cleveland. If you’re spending up at quarterback, just set it and forget it.
Philip Rivers (IND): $7,100 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Targeting bad defenses is always a nice first step in figuring out your roster construction. This Jaguars defense (and offense) is going to be atrocious in 2020. Additionally, Rivers has now been gifted with a few key upgrades on offense. Perhaps the most important being the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line. The other, of course, is the coaching staff led by head coach Frank Reich.
Unlike his former division rival Carr, Rivers has no problem airing the ball out to his receivers and tight ends. His gunslinger mentality likely isn’t going to change just because the team name on his jersey changed either.
Addendum to note our @HolderStephen has in here on Philip Rivers: Rivers led #NFL in air yards per attempt to WRs & TEs last season … but was 12th in air yards per attempt overall … because he targeted RBs on league-high 30% of attempts https://t.co/pzE5bfWgKt
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) August 25, 2020
With a nice compliment of speed and route running on offense, Rivers shapes up to be a great affordable option at quarterback this week if you’re not spending up at the position.
Other notables: Josh Allen (BUF): $7,900 vs. NYJ; Carson Wentz (PHI): $7,700 at WAS; Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): $7,400 vs. ARI
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson (WAS): $4,600 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Well, we need to discuss Gibson this week, and he should probably be the first running back covered. First and foremost, Washington is most likely going to have a committee backfield. Some mix of J.D. McKissic, Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, and Gibson are going to be in play to get some touches out of the backfield. Perhaps the most indicative sign of how these players are going to be used (or not) will be an hour and a half before game time — that’s when Washington will announce their inactives. Pay close attention because this is a situation worth monitoring.
Not all chalk is good chalk, and let’s be clear, Gibson is likely to be chalk. The roster flexibility he allows for can’t be understated. Christian McCaffrey and at least two additional high-end skill position players are comfortably possible with Gibson in your lineup. For cash games, that’s huge. Just tread lightly here because there’s a greater than zero percent possibility that Gibson fails to hit value if all four running backs are active Sunday.
Austin Ekeler (LAC): $7,700 at Cincinnati Bengals
The competition behind Ekeler consists of Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, which is a far cry from last season when Melvin Gordon was siphoning touches and snaps away. With a new quarterback and Mike Williams injured, Ekeler is surely going to be heavily involved in the Chargers’ game plan this weekend.
Ekeler led the NFL in broken tackles as a receiver last season. His 25.8% broken tackle percentage as a runner was second only to Lamar Jackson. He was the only player in the NFL with 100-plus rushing and receiving yards in a game last season. On 26% of his snaps, Ekeler he lined up in the slot or out wide. That was the third-highest rate among running backs in 2019. If the stats don’t help build the case, maybe the eye test will:
TyGod RB target stats fail to account for the reality that Austin Ekeler is an absolute baller true receiverpic.twitter.com/hvsSeMei9j
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 13, 2020
Other notables: Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $10,000 vs. OAK (Duh); Miles Sanders (PHI): $6,800 at WAS (Boston Scott is $4,700 in the event that Sanders is inactive); Kenyan Drake (ARI): $6,600 at SF
Wide Receivers
DeSean Jackson (PHI): $5,700 vs. Washington Football Team
While it’s going to take some getting used to saying and typing “Football Team,” it’s a tale as old as time that when Jackson faces an old team, more often than not, he torches them. Badly.
DeSean Jackson revenge game history #science
5-117-1
4-126-0
4-40-0
4-55-0
3-102-1
4-129-1
5-67-0
8-154-2— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 7, 2020
Priced as the WR33 on FanDuel, Jackson is the Philadelphia Eagles’ number one receiver heading into Week 1, and he’s one of more the popular sub-$6,000 receivers this week. In three of the last four season openers, Jackson has topped 100 yards receiving and has scored a combined four touchdowns in those games. Now Jackson and the Eagles get a Washington team that has unquestioned strength in the front seven but unlimited questions in the secondary. While there’s concern about the stability of the Eagles’ offensive line, the Eagles are still six-point favorites and are a fantasy-friendly offense.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA): $6,400 at Atlanta Falcons
There is absolutely no shortage of high upside receivers in the $6,000-6,900 price range. In what should be a barnburner, Metcalf is priced $400 less than teammate Tyler Lockett (both players should be in your consideration for cash and GPP).
Metcalf came onto the scene in a big way last season, and that was just a picture of him without a shirt on. On the football field, he was simply a man amongst boys at times.
D.K. Metcalf led all rookie WRs in explosive plays (15+ yards) with 24 & contested catches (17) in 2019 pic.twitter.com/JwWgPZcL0Z
— PFF (@PFF) September 6, 2020
Other notables:
D.J. Moore (CAR): $7,100 vs. OAK; Stefon Diggs (BUF): $6,600 vs. NYJ; Julio Jones (ATL): $8,200 vs. SEA; Marquise Brown (BAL): $5,900 vs. CLE
Tight Ends
Chris Herndon (NYJ): $4,800 at Buffalo Bills
The questions surrounding Herndon have never focused on his abilities as an athlete or his high potential upside. His health has been, and continues to be, the one thing holding him back from becoming a true difference-maker. Considering the health of the other receivers on the New York Jets, Herndon fills two necessary quotas: he’s cheap, and he’s a warm body that’ll be peppered with targets.
Chris Herndon is shaping up to be one of the best late-round TE targets over the next two weeks.
In 2018, Darnold to Herndon led the #Jets in yards per attempt (9.0), success rate (61%), and catch rate above expected (+11.3%). https://t.co/tccpC4ZUtb
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 25, 2020
All the reports out of the Jets’ training camp have been extremely positive about Herndon’s performance thus far. The Jets have 193 vacated targets from a season ago (third-most in the NFL). Meanwhile, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims appear to be highly questionable for Week 1.
George Kittle (SF): $8,000 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sometimes it really doesn’t need to be difficult. Kittle gets a Cardinals defense that was absolutely shredded by Jimmy G and the San Francisco 49ers last season. The Cardinals were also torched by tight ends last year. They were pretty much torched by every position last year.
Arizona Cardinals pass defense last season, by position
Tight ends: 127 targets/96 catches/1,148 yards/16 TDs
RBs: 110 targets/93 catches/788 yards/5 TDs
WRs: 332 targets/224 catches/2,764 yards/16 TDs
pretty much gashed by every position group last year
— Eric Edholm (@Eric_Edholm) March 3, 2020
The Cardinals attempted to address this situation in the draft by selecting Isaiah Simmons at eighth overall. Simmons should help the Cardinals defense, but in Week 1, with no pre-season to fall back on, we really don’t know how Simmons is going to be utilized. Per PFF, last season, the Cardinals pass defense was the second-worst in terms of expected points added allowed per pass play.
Meanwhile, Kittle is going to be shouldering the load in the passing game, as most of the 49ers’ pass-catchers are dealing with injuries. Emmanuel Sanders is now in New Orleans, Deebo Samuel is likely going to be out this week, and rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk is likely a game-time decision that won’t be 100% if he does play.
Other notables: Zach Ertz (PHI): $6,600 at WAS; Jack Doyle (IND): $5,300 at JAC; Hunter Henry (LAC): $6,000 at CIN
Defense/Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts D/ST: $3,700 at Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s easy to focus on the Colts’ upgrades on offense this year, but the improvements they made on defense could make this team a legitimate contender in the AFC. The Colts’ defense is a great bang for the buck play at defense if you’re spending down. They’re tied for the second-largest favorite (-7.5) of Week One. Meanwhile, the Jaguars…well, they’re looking to make an offensive upgrade in next year’s draft.
Buffalo Bills D/ST: $4,700 vs. New York Jets
Not much needs to be said. Sacks, turnovers, and potentially a touchdown are all in play for the Bills defense in this game. Defenses against the Jets this season are likely going to be fantasy gold.
Other notables:
Washington D/ST: $3,400 vs. PHI (If Right Tackle Lane Johnson is out for the Eagles, Washington becomes a very sneaky minimum cost defense); Los Angeles Chargers D/ST: $4,200 at CIN
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Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him @Mgiraldi.
