FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Week 3 (2020)
Welcome to Week 3, everybody (read that in my best Dr. Nick Riviera voice). The beauty of DFS is starting to show its head early this season. Are you in a dynasty or re-draft league this year? Did you land the first or second overall pick and feel like you were going to dominate your league with Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley? I’m afraid the NFL has some bad news…
The amount of season-ending or long-term injuries suffered last week is staggering. It’s also affecting how we will approach this upcoming week. While some injuries, like the ones to McCaffrey or Barkley, hurt their offenses, some have given new life to players that we were beginning to write off after Week 1.
Perhaps no situation encompasses that more than the Los Angeles Chargers. In an absolutely stunning revelation this week, we discovered that the reason Tyrod Taylor couldn’t start was a team doctor punctured his lung while administering a shot to his ribs. It forced rookie quarterback Justin Herbert to start last week, and he nearly pulled off a win against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
More so than that, however, certain skill players for the Chargers looked like their old selves. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen were more involved in the passing game. Mike Williams had five fewer targets in Week 2 but still accounted for 22 percent of the Chargers’ air yards in Week 2.
It just goes to show how quickly things can change week-to-week in the NFL. So let’s see what we have for Week 3.
The players below are ones I’m looking at for cash game considerations in Week Three of the 2020 season:
Russell Wilson (SEA): $8,700 vs. Dallas Cowboys
While the phrase “Let Russ Cook” is already becoming stale, the Seahawks quarterback is definitely cooking fresh meat each week in the passing game. Despite only throwing eight more passes than this point last season, Wilson is completing 82.5 percent of his passes through two games. He currently has the highest completion percentage in NFL history through two games (minimum of 50 pass attempts). Wilson’s nine touchdown passes lead the NFL (second place has six). He shredded the New England Patriots defense last Sunday night.
Russell Wilson was at his best passing in the most difficult situations tonight against the Patriots.
10+ Air Yards
➤ 5/8, 130 yards, 4 TD (+26.9% CPOE)
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 21, 2020
Now the Cowboys are coming to town, and they’re depleted in the secondary. How depleted? Their cupboards are bare, folks. On the bright side, in their last 45 possessions on the road, the Cowboys have scored five touchdowns. Fire up the BBQ and let the man cook.
Chidobe Awuzie, Anthony Brown & Trevon Diggs all started at CB when Cowboys opened season 10 days ago.
None of them practiced on Wednesday. Awuzie (hamstring) & Brown (ribs) won’t play against Seattle this weekend.
If Diggs (shoulder) joins them, secondary is in big trouble.
— David Moore (@DavidMooreDMN) September 23, 2020
Josh Allen (BUF): $8,100 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Josh Allen leads the league in passing yards after two weeks. Allen has accounted for 85.1 percent of the Bills’ total team yards.
Josh Allen 20 + yard completions:
🔹 2019: 18
🔹 2020: 7
— PFF (@PFF) September 23, 2020
Rich Hribar over at Sharp Football Analysis notes: “Through two weeks, Josh Allen has completed 12-of-14 passes (85.7 percent) on throws 15-plus yards downfield. Through two NFL seasons, Allen had completed 32.8 percent of those attempts.”
Never enough Josh Allen folks.
The Bills are becoming pass-happy!
Josh Allen has thrown for 12.3% of his career passing yards over the last two weeks, despite playing just 6.7% of his career games so far in 2020. https://t.co/uONCv8pNSQ
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) September 24, 2020
Miles Sanders (PHI): $7,400 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Eagles offense might be bad thus far this season, but Sanders immediately took over as the alpha running back in the Philadelphia backfield last week. The Eagles had 11 rushing first downs in Week 2, and Sanders had eight of those.
Bell cow Miles Sanders is HERE 📈 pic.twitter.com/zF3bPWCawH
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 24, 2020
He is a home favorite, and he had 20 carries and seven targets last week. Those seven targets tied him for second among running backs in Week 2. This week he gets the Bengals, and they’re ranked 28th in defensive line adjusted yards. They also rank 30th in second-level and 27th in open-field adjusted yards.
Jonathan Taylor (IND): $6,700 vs. New York Jets
It’s legitimately surprising that the Jets are able to field a team at this point. Particularly on offense. The underlying result might be a whole lot of Taylor milking the clock and ball control in what could be a blowout. Through the first two weeks, Taylor is fifth in the NFL in 43 touches. He completely took over the backfield last week as well, going from 35 percent of the snaps Week 1 to 67 percent of the snaps Week 2.
Allen Robinson (CHI): $6,900 at Atlanta Falcons
Robinson has had the opportunity thus far in 2020. He just hasn’t been able to turn in a phenomenal performance. That could be coming this Sunday, however — the Falcons have allowed the second-most passing yards (744) in the NFL through two games.
Through two weeks, the Falcons have given up the 2nd-most fantasy points to perimeter wideouts and the 5th-most to slot receivers.
Allen Robinson (59% perimeter/41% slot, 9 targets each game) is in a perfect get-right spot Week 3.
— Tyler Buecher (@TylerBuecher) September 23, 2020
This Falcons secondary is struggling immensely. They’re currently ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA. They’re allowing the third-most yards against deep passes and the second-most yards against short passes. The Falcons are allowing 3.8 points per drive, 31st in the NFL.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA): $6,500 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Look, I don’t know what it’s going to take for Metcalf to see a substantial price increase, but as long as he’s sitting in the mid-$6,000 range, he’s going to be a constant cash game staple. This week the Seattle Seahawks face a depleted Cowboys secondary that doesn’t have an answer for someone like Metcalf.
Last week, Metcalf faced arguably one of the best corners in the NFL in Stephon Gilmore. These were just some of the results:
So if Gilmore can't check D.K. Metcalf, who the hell can?pic.twitter.com/xIFB4Q4QeL
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2020
According to Pro Football Focus, Gilmore allowed a 143.8 passer rating to Metcalf. That’s his highest passer rating allowed since Week 10 of 2018.
Logan Thomas (WAS): $4,900 at Cleveland Browns
Trust the process. The opportunity has repeatedly been there for Thomas. Thomas is currently third in the NFL amongst tight ends in air yards. Thomas has a 25 percent air yard share and a 26 percent target share. He is seventh in routes run among tight ends as well. The Browns have allowed the most receptions to tight ends thus far this season. Trust the process.
Week 2 leaders in Routes run per Drop Back at Tight End:
Logan Thomas – 86.8%
Zach Ertz – 86.4%
Travis Kelce – 81.5%
Evan Engram – 77.8%
Dallas Goedart- 77.3%
— Al Smizzle (@AlZeidenfeld) September 21, 2020
Tyler Higbee (LAR): $6,100 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ defense has been daunting, but heading into this game, they might be down a couple of linebackers.
Now, we’re not gonna get three touchdowns again this week, but a solid performance in a high scoring game should be expected. Higbee is also getting the vast majority of the work over Gerald Everett.
Tyler Higbee has played 122 snaps, run 31 routes and handled 9 targets.
Gerald Everett has played 53 snaps, run 14 routes and handled 2 targets.
Not even a contest.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 21, 2020
Indianapolis Colts D/ST: $4,800 vs. New York Jets
The Jets are down multiple receivers and won’t have Le’Veon Bell. They’ll also be missing key offensive linemen. It is very difficult to imagine a situation where the Colts aren’t the de facto cash defense. There’s a lot of value at wide receiver to justify spending up a bit at defense too.
Adam Gase’s Offense Rankings:
First downs: 32
Plays per game: 31
Yards per play: 30
3rd down conversion: 28
— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) September 22, 2020
New York Giants D/ST: $3,600 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Giants have been hurt immensely on offense. At the end of the day, they’re still dirt cheap, and it’s difficult to imagine that Nick Mullens will have a spectacular performance. The health of George Kittle will be important here. Should Kittle miss this game, it not only affects the 49ers passing game, but also their running game as well.
The New York Giants (!) defense is allowing the league's lowest success rate on first/second downs so far.
Yes, some of it is playing PIT/CHI, but still, that's a surprise.
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) September 23, 2020
Other notables: Tampa Bay D/ST: $3,800 at DEN
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