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Fantasy Football Weekly Recap: Week 1

Fantasy Football Weekly Recap: Week 1

Week 1 is always wild, and we saw our share of upsets — Jacksonville took down Indianapolis while Washington took down Philadelphia. We also saw some strange results in fantasy football, too, and I’m here to help break some of those down.

Each week, I’ll offer data-driven insight on Sunday’s slate of games. You can read my reactions to the one o’clock games here, as I’ll focus on the afternoon and night games below.

Let’s get started!

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Story #1: DeAndre Hopkins dominates the target share for Arizona.

Lots of analysts faded Hopkins this offseason. Most expected him to see less work in a new offense with guys like Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald competing for Kyler Murray’s attention.

Those predictions failed to materialize. As of Sunday night, Hopkins had the highest share of his team’s targets in Week 1.

For some perspective, Murray attempted 40 passes, and Hopkins earned 16 targets. Since only 37 of his 40 passing attempts were logged as targets, that yields a substantial target share. Also, Murray only threw to Fitzgerald and Kirk five times apiece.

This is awful news for those who took Kirk. Hopkins may finally get to show his true potential on a consistent basis in this offense, and that’ll be to Kirk’s detriment. If you drafted Kirk, try to move him, as he’ll be droppable after another dud like this.

Story #2: Is Raheem Mostert the lead back in San Francisco?

Last year in Week 1, Kyle Shanahan used a committee approach in the backfield. That might not be the case this year. Mostert earned 19 touches on Sunday, while Jerick McKinnon earned six, and Tevin Coleman logged five. That’s a pretty big advantage.

Mostert even flashed Matt Breida-like upside with a jaw-dropping 76-yard score.

While Shanahan could pivot back to a committee at any time, I expect him to ride the hot hand. Right now, that’s Mostert, and you should keep starting him with confidence until he cools off.

Story #3: A.J. Green returns to WR1 duties for the Bengals. Or does he?

The Bengals finally got Green back, and he led the team in targets with nine. Although he only caught five passes for 51 yards, he earned four more looks from Joe Burrow than anyone else on the roster — Tyler Boyd, John Ross, C.J. Uzomah, and Gio Bernard all got five.

So while it was a good week volume-wise for Green, he didn’t capitalize much on his usage. He caught just five of his nine targets, and he only earned 51 yards. Those are low-end WR3 numbers.

There’s another reason to worry about Green. The Chargers have two slot cornerbacks who could easily shut down slot receiver Tyler Boyd (Chris Harris and Desmond King), and Burrow turned to Boyd, not Green, when trying to rally in the fourth quarter. That said, I would leave both Green and Boyd in your lineup for their date with Cleveland next week. You can expect it to be a high-scoring game.

Story #4: Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley look like a one-two punch.

Ekeler drafters didn’t get what they expected out of him on Sunday. Ekeler earned just one target, and while his 19 carries might’ve offset his lack of receptions, rookie Joshua Kelley got the one rushing touchdown on the day.

Kelley earned a sizeable chunk of the carries, too. Of Los Angeles’ 39 total rushing attempts, Kelley got 12, good for 30 percent. He was not used in the passing game, however, and Ekeler’s one catch was the only time that Taylor threw to a running back.

Before the season started, I wrote that Kelley had a good chance to get the goal-line work behind Ekeler. He has the perfect combination of power and speed, and he’s a must-add on waivers this week — if you can still get him.

Story #5: Tom Brady struggles in Tampa Bay debut.

Brady threw two interceptions before he threw a single touchdown on Sunday. He got sacked three times, too, as the Saints’ defense kept him in check for most of the game.

While it wasn’t a good start for the ex-Patriot,  I expect him to get back on track next Sunday. He’ll go from playing against two of the league’s best cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins) to a pair of less proven ones (Donte Jackson and Troy Pride), and Mike Evans will have some extra time to get healthy.

If you’re in need of a quarterback, you should consider sending out an offer for Brady. He should finish as a low-end QB1, so if the person who drafted him is panicking, take him and run.

Story #6: Jared Cook leads Saints in targets while Michael Thomas disappears.

Thomas earned his fewest targets since Week 11 of 2018 last week. That’s unfortunate if you started him, but you can expect things to get back to normal quickly. Other defenses won’t leave Jared Cook open as Tampa Bay did.

I don’t expect Cook to see this same level of usage again. His seven targets were the second-most on the team (behind Alvin Kamara’s eight) in a game that the Saints controlled from the start of the second half.

Leave Thomas and Cook in your lineups for Week 2. While things may regress back to the mean for both of them, they’re both strong starting options.

Story #7: The Rams’ committee approach works against the Cowboys.

Sean McVay said in the offseason that he wanted to appropriate Kyle Shanahan’s committee approach, and we saw it on full display Sunday. Here’s how the carries were divvied up.

Brown caught three passes, and Akers caught one. Brown had McVay’s trust for the red-zone looks, and while Akers may see more work as he learns the offense, Brown is the back to own for now. That said, it’s a situation to monitor as Darrell Henderson gets back to full health.

Add Brown on waivers if he’s still there, but hold onto both Akers and Henderson as their roles may change.

Story #8: Amari Cooper dominates Dallas’s target share.

I did not expect Cooper to command as many targets as he did on Sunday, but Dak Prescott threw his way 14 times. That’s more than half of his 25 passing attempts! Prescott threw CeeDee Lamb’s way six times, and he threw to Michael Gallup just five times.

Despite his substantial target share, Cooper failed to produce strong fantasy numbers. He caught ten passes for 81 yards, making him a decent option in PPR formats, but he was unable to score a touchdown.

So while Cooper failed to crack 100 yards, his massive volume is encouraging. Dallas’ receiving corps is loaded with CeeDee Lamb in town, but the loss of Blake Jarwin could force Prescott to keep looking Cooper’s way, so start him with confidence in Week 2. Dallas’ matchup with Atlanta should be high-scoring, so Gallup and Lamb should be viable options as well.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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