Do you oftentimes find yourself thinking that you know more about fantasy football than some of the “experts” that you see on FantasyPros? Well now’s your chance to see how you really stack up against some of the best minds that the industry has to offer! Through our partnership with BetMGM, we present to you the Fantasy Over/Under Challenge!
The way this will work is every week you have an opportunity to track how you fare against the FantasyPros community by simply selecting Over or Under on FantasyPros’ projections for 10 specific players. Here is a link to our FAQ page for the page. The top 20 participants each week will receive $10 gift cards, as well as $10 free bets from BetMGM Sportsbook for the 10 most accurate participants from eligible states.
Now without further ado, let’s dive into the 10 players in question for Week 1. I’ll be making my personal picks as part of this weekly series.
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Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) vs CLE, 1:00 pm ET – Over/Under (Half PPR): 22.9
OVER – The 2019 NFL MVP will pick up right where he left off, dominating through the air while providing game-breaking electricity on the ground. The only legitimate concern with Jackson achieving the over is if the game gets out of hand too quickly, similar to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night against the Houston Texans.
Cam Newton (QB – NE) vs MIA, 1:00 pm ET – 17.9
UNDER – I’ve got to see it first from Newton before I can hitch my wagon to him by hammering the over here. Over his last five starts since Week 12 of the 2018 season, Newton has thrown seven interceptions while only mustering two passing touchdowns. With only 69 (Welcome back, Gronk!) rushing yards. All while going 0-5.
Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI) at SF, 4:25 pm ET – 13.7
OVER – For as much credit as we give the 49ers defense from 2019, the well-regarded bunch quietly finished in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed last season. After trading away 2019 second-team All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, San Francisco will have their hands full containing Drake both on the ground and through the air.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) at JAC, 1:00 pm ET – 11.0
OVER-I don’t know about the rest of you, but I sure as heck haven’t forgotten about the Colts trading away a 2014 first-round draft pick for a particular colossal running back bust by the name of Trent Richardson. I can assure you that Jim Irsay and the Colts haven’t either, considering it took the franchise six years after the blunder to spend serious draft capital on the running back position. Frank Reich will have no problem whatsoever introducing their prized rookie to the world against the walking, talking NFL Tank Job that resides in Jacksonville.
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) at CAR, 1:00 pm ET – 15.8
OVER-Did someone mention Tank Jobs? Carolina’s defense was already godawful in 2019, ranking 31st in points allowed, 29th in rushing yards allowed, dead last in yards per carry allowed, and dead last in rushing touchdowns allowed. And that was with five-time First-Team All-Pro Luke Kuechly playing all 16 games. With Kuechly now serving in the Panthers’ scouting department, this defense will be even worse in Matt Rhule’s first season with the franchise. Jacobs will be one of the highest-scoring backs for Week 1.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI) at SF, 4:25 pm ET – 11.8.
UNDER-Circling back on San Francisco’s stout defense, no team in football gave up fewer yards through the air than the 49ers in 2019. With their tenacious front four wreaking havoc on the Cardinals’ work-in-progress offensive line, I have a difficult time picturing Kliff Kingsbury’s “Arizona Raid” offense getting off the runway in Week 1.
DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI) at WAS, 1:00pm ET – 9.5
Under –There’s something to be said about Jackson’s justified appeal as a focal point amongst the Eagles’ wide receivers. Unfortunately for Jackson, this passing game still goes through tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. With the pair of doppelgangers at tight end leading the way in targets, Jackson will need to make a splash chunk play in order to hit the over in Week 1.
Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) vs SEA, 1:00 pm – 11.8
Over –It’s no secret that Atlanta’s high-flying passing attack prefers to operate within the friendly indoor confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. With the Falcons leading the NFL in pass attempts last season, it’s fair to assume that Dirk Koetter’s bunch will keep the ball in the air early and often this season. Also, Ridley averaged 12.8 half-PPR points across seven home games in 2019.
Davante Adams (WR – GB) at MIN, 1:00 pm ET – 15.0
Over –Remember when it was widely regarded that the Minnesota Vikings had a premier secondary across the NFL? Welp, unfortunately for Vikings fans, those days are most certainly over. After losing Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes to free agency, who will be the Minnesota cornerback responsible for slowing down one of the best receivers on the planet come Sunday? Adams feasts, once again, inside US Bank Stadium.
Zach Ertz (TE – PHI) at WAS, 1:00pm ET – 11.2
Over –You won’t find another tight end on planet Earth who’s had more targets come his way over the past two seasons (291) than Ertz. As I mentioned earlier in my bit on Jackson, Carson Wentz has zero qualms whatsoever with force-feeding his security blanket across the middle of the field. Ertz will be right up there with George Kittle and Travis Kelce for the highest scoring tight ends for Week 1.
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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with How to Manage Early-Season Injury Problems or head to more advanced strategy – like How to Effectively Assess the Quality of Your Team – to learn more.
Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @RobBob17.
