Feast or Famine: Week 1 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Feast or Famine! A weekly breakdown of the most variable player rankings by standard deviation from FantasyPros Weekly ECR.
These players are ranked as either sensational hits or relative busts, and I’ll be giving my reasoning on why you should lean one side over the other. Having no clear group consensus means these are the decisions that could win or lose you your weekly matchup or DFS lineup. Knowledge is power in these situations, so let’s begin.
Cam Newton (NE)
Highest rank: QB4. Lowest Rank: QB22.
Newton was the eighth-highest scoring quarterback in points per game in 2018, and fifth-highest in 2017. There are a lot of jitters about him being on a new team in New England. Still, the cushiony matchup playing at home against Miami – who allowed the second-highest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2019 – should help calm nerves.
Joe Burrow (CIN)
Highest rank: QB14. Lowest Rank: QB32.
Burrow will get no early favors matching up against the Chargers being slotted behind one of the worst offensive lines in 2019, ranking 31st of the 32 teams in 4for4’s rankings as well as 31st by PFF. Combine that with Joey Bosa’s third-highest pressure rate in the league and the Chargers allowing the sixth-fewest points to the quarterback position, and this looks like a rough start for the rookie’s debut.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
Highest rank: RB3. Lowest Rank: RB21.
Projecting a rookie running back’s first game of the year has created significant division among rankers. We’ve seen zero in-game action and had a shortened offseason. However, the Chiefs-Texans lineup has the highest projected point total of any game this week at 54.5. Camp reports have been exclusively glowing about him, and his only competition appears to Darrel Williams.
Don’t be scared, start Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Highest rank: RB16. Lowest Rank: RB35.
Another rookie makes sense, as their first games are tough to predict. Unlike his fellow rookie in Kansas City, Taylor has a returning 1,000-yard rusher and receiving specialist in Mack and Hines to compete with. Taylor is an outstanding prospect, and he will assuredly take over this backfield this year, but they don’t have to force him into that role yet with two reliable backs on the roster. I think the best-case scenario is he hits around 40% RB snap share, and I believe that’s generous. Find a more reliable Week 1 option until he takes control.
Allen Robinson (CHI)
Highest rank: WR4. Lowest Rank: WR25.
Robinson is coming off a breakout year, and the Bears’ somewhat surprisingly have stuck with Trubisky as their starter in Week 1 against the Lions. Darius Slay – Detroit’s top cornerback last year – is no longer with the team, so Robinson’s matchup is a lot more enticing. Couple this with David Montgomery coming off an injury and the Bears might have few choices other than airing it out to their best offensive player.
A.J. Brown (TEN)
Highest rank: WR5. Lowest Rank: WR36.
Denver and Tennessee had the third and fourth slowest pace of play in the league in 2019, respectively. This matchup also has the second-lowest point total of the week at 41. Regardless of the talent Brown has, this game script is shaping up to be uneventful. Couple this with Denver’s defense allowing the eighth-fewest points per game and 11th-fewest passing yards, and it’s looking to be a run-heavy type of game in a low-scoring affair.
Honorable Mention Famine: Amari Cooper
Hayden Hurst (ATL)
Highest rank: TE3. Lowest Rank: TE24.
Hurst will have the opportunity to have his presence felt on his new team immediately. No team passed more often than the Falcons last year (42.8 pass att/game), and he is looking to be the third-best option behind Jones and Ridley. His ADP will be put to the test immediately in an excellent matchup with the third-highest point total matchup of the week at 49 and both teams in the top-11 for pace of play.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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