Feast or Famine: Week 3 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Feast or Famine! It’s my weekly breakdown of the most variable player rankings by standard deviation from FantasyPros Weekly ECR.
These players are ranked as either sensational hits or relative busts, and I’ll be giving my reasoning on why you should lean one side over the other. Having no clear group consensus means these are the decisions that could win or lose you your weekly matchup or DFS lineup. Knowledge is power in these situations, so let’s begin.
This series hit on 10 of 14 players last week relative to ECR.
Gardner Minshew (JAC)
Highest rank: QB7. Lowest Rank: QB28.
Quite the variance around Minshew this week, but he is slowly climbing boards as the QB13 ranked while currently at QB9 on the season. He faces the Dolphins on a quick turnaround, and they gave up the second-most points to the position in 2019 and the third-most so far in 2020. He is a smash play this week with top-five upside.
Matt Ryan (ATL)
Highest rank: QB4. Lowest Rank: QB20.
You might not have much for other options, and while Ryan has been a must-start so far this season, he faces a very difficult matchup against the Bears. Their defense has allowed the fifth-fewest points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. With Julio looking very possible to miss the game after aggravating a hamstring injury, Kyle Fuller could give Calvin Ridley a tougher time than his previous two matchups. You will need a serviceable option to bench him, however.
Jerick McKinnon (SF)
Highest rank: RB10. Lowest Rank: RB52.
McKinnon flashed in limited touches against the Jets with over 70 yards and a score, and he should see his volume skyrocket as both Mostert and Coleman are out of the lineup. He gets the Giants, who have the fourth-ranked run-funnel defense through two weeks, as shown below. He’s one of my favorite underrated plays this week.
Curious which teams are trending towards Pass or Run Funnel defenses? Let's see how 2020 defenses are shaping up through 2 weeks:
Top-3 Pass Funnel Defenses:
Top-3 Run Funnel Defenses:
3. Bengals pic.twitter.com/ONuhfEfkPJ
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) September 22, 2020
Honorable Mention Feast: James Conner (PIT)
Leonard Fournette (TB)
Highest rank: RB16. Lowest Rank: RB39.
I’ve been high on Fournette as a player all off-season, and he showed why last week. After being with the team for less than two weeks, he still put up a 20+ point performance. This week is different, however, as Denver and Tampa Bay are both below average in game plays per game pace and have a Vegas game total of 43. The Broncos have been far friendlier to wide receivers than running backs, and the return of Chris Godwin should keep that trend rolling.
Michael Gallup (DAL)
Highest rank: WR14. Lowest Rank: WR61.
The Seahawks have allowed 731 yards to receivers this year, and the next closest team has given up 524. Currently overshadowed by Cooper and Lamb, Gallup is still one of the better talents in the NFL. I tweeted about him earlier this week, and it summarizes why possibly multiple receivers in Dallas could absolutely explode this week:
The NFL's 3rd highest passing offense Cowboys meets the #1 pass-funnel defense Seahawks.
The Vegas total is 55, SEA has hit the over in back to back weeks, and suffered multiple injuries on DEF.
Gallup and Lamb are both under $5,700.
These are what DFS dreams are made of.
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) September 22, 2020
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
Highest rank: WR4. Lowest Rank: WR25.
See above funnel chart under McKinnon. Notice that Houston has the number one run-funnel defense so far this year. Conner is coming off a very good performance and Pittsburgh is four point favorites for a positive script. Combine this with the breakout of Diontae Johnson, and Smith-Schuster could fall very short of expectations this week as the ranked WR11.
Mo Alie-Cox (IND)
Highest rank: TE11. Lowest Rank: TE33.
The Colts are a ridiculous 11-point favorite against the Jets this week. So besides Jonathan Taylor being set up for another massive outing, I’m wondering if Alie-Cox gets some nice red zone targets after the Jets sell out to stop the run with Doyle on the sideline. They just allowed two scores to Jordan Reed last week with the absence of trading away Jamal Adams being felt. He won’t get a ton of volume based on game script, so he’ll need to score to pay off here.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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