Nyheim Hines created some waves on the first Sunday of the 2020 NFL football season, racking up 28 rushing yards and a touchdown on seven carries to go along with 45 receiving yards and another touchdown on eight receptions. Was Hines just an anomaly, or is he a prime waiver wire target going into Week 2?

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Hines was already going to be a waiver wire consideration after his early touchdowns and more-than-expected involvement, but the eventual season-ending injury to kind-of-starter Marlon Mack made things much more interesting. Jonathan Taylor will be the primary runner going forward, but Hines will be involved in both facets of the game, particularly as a receiving back, as that’s always been his bread and butter.

Hines had always been a solid albeit fairly desperate points-per-reception (PPR) league play, as he was usually good for a handful of catches but never offered much beyond that. He had 63 and 44 receptions in his first two seasons, respectively, but he only had six total touchdowns before the 2020 season.

The main trio of Colts running backs in 2019 – Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins – combined for 65 receptions with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. Now, the Colts have Philip Rivers leading the charge.

That’s where things get interesting.

Rivers has always targeted his running backs heavily, especially in the past two seasons. In 2019, Melvin Gordon (42) and Austin Ekeler (92) combined for 134 receptions on 163 targets. In 2018, that duo combined for 89 receptions, and they missed a combined six games that season. 

Rivers’ Colts debut was no different. Taylor, Hines, and Mack combined for 17 (!) receptions on 17 targets. It’s only one game, but, extrapolated to a full season, Colts running backs would be on pace for 272 targets. If we take only a conservative 50% of that, that’s still 136 targets. If Hines kept his 47% RB target share from Week 1, that’s about 64 targets for him. His career catch rate is 77%, which would land him at 49 receptions, and that would have been the 14th-most among running backs in 2019.

I just made a ton of assumptions, some of which were based on one pass-heavy game, but I was intentionally conservative to show Hines’s floor. Most notably, I didn’t transfer any of Marlon Mack’s Week 1 RB target share (17%) to Hines, some or all of which will likely move his way.

It’s probably a very cliche comparison, but the combination of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines could be remarkably similar to the Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler tandem that Rivers utilized with the Chargers. Taylor and Gordon are both run-first backs that can also catch, and Ekeler and Hines are receiving specialists that can also run. Taylor and Gordon also both went to Wisconsin, for what it’s worth (I know it’s worth nothing).

In short, Hines’s display in Week 1 is probably more of the rule than the exception. I wouldn’t expect 17 running back targets each week, but Hines will be heavily involved, especially if the Colts are trailing. I hate using top waiver priority or a ton of FAAB after Week 1. Still, it’s hard to ignore the potential with Hines after we’ve seen the running backs around Philip Rivers succeed at a tremendous rate from a fantasy football perspective. Add in Mack’s significant injury, and Hines has a pretty easy path to potential fantasy stardom.

Hines feels a lot like a team-changing waiver wire pickup heading into Week 2. If you’re in a PPR league or you lost a starter to injury, I’d make every effort to land him.

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Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF