Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing new entrants to the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the over/under (now called ‘more or less’) contests. In these contests you can choose over/under totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals, and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at some of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 3. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
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Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): 218.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert looked excellent in his NFL debut. He helped take the defending NFL Champions to overtime, and that is despite missing their superstar safety Derwin James and their starting center Mike Pouncey. Many were surprised with his performance, but he plays in a good offense that has plus talent at all of the skill positions.
Some seem to forget that the number six overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft was a senior who would have been in the mix to go first overall in 2019 had he declared. If scouts did not feel he plateaued in his senior season he would have been in the mix to be the first quarterback drafted regardless of Joe Burrow‘s historic season and Tua Tagovailoa suffering a devastating injury.
For one reason or another, head coach Anthony Lynn refused to name Herbert the starter after he clearly showed that he was the quarterback that would give the Chargers the best chance to win games, not Tyrod Taylor. However, after it was revealed that the Chargers team doctor punctured Taylor’s lung while trying to administer a pain-killing injection for his cracked ribs, Herbert was made the starter. Taylor is out indefinitely, so this is likely a permanent move.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Chargers will take on the Carolina Panthers. There are not many teams that would be better for a QB’s second career start. The Panthers defense is depleted after losing all of their star players over the last two seasons, and they are now in rebuild mode. They have some nice young pieces in Jeremy Chinn, Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and Yetur Gross-Matos, but still have a lot of work to do. This should help Herbert have success against Carolina both on the ground and through the air.
Carolina has allowed 228 passing yards per game this season. That number looks good on the surface, but further context is needed. The Las Vegas Raiders were up 30-15 heading into the fourth quarter of Week 1, and did not need to throw the ball much. This led to Derek Carr throwing for 239 passing yards on eight yards per attempt with a 73.3 completion percentage. In Week 2, the Panthers faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers without star receiver Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay was up 21-0 by half time and did not need to throw the ball. Tom Brady has struggled with three interceptions in two games, so letting Leonard Fournette run wild was in the Buccaneers best interests.
Justin Herbert has all of his top weapons, and while he has a strong backfield, he does not have a lead runner with the talent of the Raiders Josh Jacobs or even the Buccaneers Leonard Fournette. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley are both talented running backs, but neither screams Pro Bowler as a pure runner. This coupled with the fact that the contest should be more competitive should keep the Chargers foot on the gas as far as the passing game is concerned. Take the more for Herbert.
Pick: More
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): 83.5 rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor looked excellent in his first game as a starter in the NFL. Taylor put up historic numbers in his three year Wisconsin career, and profiles as one of the best pure runners in the NFL. He needs to bring his yards per carry up, as 3.5 yards per tote is not going to cut it in the NFL. 61 of his 123 yards have come after contact, but his yards before contact of just 1.8 yards per attempt is destined to rise once he gets more comfortable with the scheme and the tendencies of his offensive line. It will also rise once he gets more comfortable with his power versus that of NFL defenders. He has broken just one tackle in two games.
Taylor was used as more of a change of pace in Week 1 prior to Marlon Mack‘s injury, seeing just nine carries for 22 rushing yards with six receptions for 67 receiving yards and a score. After being named the starter for Week 2, Taylor posted 26 carries for 101 rushing yards and a touchdown. He added two receptions for nine receiving yards and a touchdown.
In Week 3, he will get just what the doctor ordered to cure the ailment known as ‘low ypc’. Ypc of course meaning yards per carry. The New York Jets have been one of the absolute worst teams in the league, and are a team to target for ‘More or Less’ contests until further notice. New York has surrendered 111.25 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs at an average boosting five yards per carry.
Let’s add some context. Week 1 boosted the Jets numbers as Josh Allen led the team in rushing yards. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary both struggled in their first live-action since the 2019 season, rushing for just 41 yards on 18 carries. Both backs were much better in Week 2 and will be much better when they face the Jets again at the end of the season. In Week 2, the Jets got crushed for 182 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per attempt. This was despite starter Raheem Mostert being injured in the first half and seeing only eight carries. This was also despite backup Tevin Coleman suffering his own injury.
Taylor should be able to cruise to an easy 100 rushing yards in this contest, making the 83.5 number at MonkeyKnifeFight look very appealing. The Colts will be looking to impose their will via the run, especially with number two receiver Parris Campbell being lost for the season. One of the top ‘More or Less’ options across any contest for this weekend, click ‘More’ for Taylor.
Pick: More
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
