Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 3 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Last week was a great week on Ball Street. We found the most success with our quarterback picks, as Kyler Murray (33.14 FanDuel points), Matt Ryan (28.52), and Ryan Tannehill (26.76) all cashed in on their underpriced upside. Additionally, “Mid-Cap” running backs Miles Sanders (18.6 points) and Raheem Mostert (17.7 before leaving the game with an injury) proved to be rock-solid additions to Week 2 DFS lineups. At wide receiver, “Penny Stock” Diontae Johnson showed out with 19.2 FanDuel points, followed closely by Mid-Cap play Tyler Lockett (16.2). Finally, Mid-Cap tight end Noah Fant outperformed his price tag with an impressive 15.7-point performance.
Unfortunately, the story doesn’t quite end there. My “Cash Cow” Penny Stock play, Nyheim Hines, sabotaged Week 2 DFS lineups with a gut-wrenching 0.9-point performance. Joining him in the “dramatic letdown” category were Adam Thielen (4.6 FanDuel points) and Mark Andrews (3.4). Both of these guys were locked-in Blue Chip plays, so their underperformance was even more detrimental to Week 2 DFS lineups. However, this is the game we play. We’ll have some hits as well as the occasional miss. In Week 3, let’s make sure that when we hit, we hit big. Lucky for us, there are several players primed for “boom” performances in Week 3.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 3 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 3.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
*Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 3 and beyond!
Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. Dallas ($8,700) – Don’t overthink this one. Russ has been COOKING and his Seahawks boast a league-leading implied point total of 30.75 as they enter a Week 3 barn burner with the Cowboys.
Cam Newton (NE) vs. Las Vegas ($7,700) – Fresh off a 35.58 point performance in Week 2, I’ll take Cam at his current price all day as New England continues to unleash him in the running game.
Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. Arizona ($7,300) – With wide receiver Kenny Golladay expected back in Detroit’s lineup, I like Stafford as a cheap QB play with mouth-watering upside in a potential shootout sporting a 55-point over/under.
Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. Green Bay ($8,600) – With wide receiver Michael Thomas likely to miss his second consecutive game, Kamara (33.9 FanDuel points in Week 2) will once again receive heavy volume against the Packers’ run-of-the-mill run defense.
*Kenyan Drake (ARI) vs. Detroit ($6,500) – With the Cardinals implied point total of 30.25, my money is on Drake having his 2020 breakout game in a potential shootout with the Lions, who gave up 43.6 FanDuel points to Aaron Jones in Week 2. *Kenyan Drake is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups.
Jerick McKinnon (SF) vs. New York Giants ($5,700) – Next up in the 49ers’ backfield is the shifty Jerick McKinnon, who takes on a Giants defense that gave up over 20 FanDuel points to David Montgomery last week.
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) vs. Detroit ($8,500) – Hopkins has soaked up 22 targets in two games with the Cardinals and is primed for another big day against a reeling Lions defense that gave up 42 points to the Packers in Week 2.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) vs. Dallas ($6,800) – I want Russell Wilson’s favorite target in all of my lineups this week as the Seahawks’ offense is going to have a field day in a game boasting a 56.5-point over/under.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. Seattle ($5,600) – At his current price, I love Lamb as a Week 3 WR3 with massive upside in a game where the Cowboys are expected to score over 25 points.
Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. Kansas City ($7,300) – While Andrews certainly let me down last week, I’m ready to get hurt again. I’ll happily pony up for Lamar Jackson‘s top target in a game where the Ravens will need to go pass-heavy to keep up with Patrick Mahomes‘ Chiefs.
Dalton Schultz (DAL) vs. Seattle ($4,900) – Hot off a 9 catch, 88-yard, 1TD game, Schultz is a DFS bargain as Dak Prescott‘s top tight end in what Vegas projects to be a fast-paced shootout with the Seahawks.
Ball Street’s Week 2 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Russell Wilson, $8,700
- RB – Alvin Kamara, $8,600
- RB – Kenyan Drake, $6,500
- WR – DeAndre Hopkins, $8,500
- WR – Tyler Lockett, $6,800
- WR – CeeDee Lamb, $5,600
- TE – Jonnu Smith, $5,600
- FLEX – Jerick McKinnon, $5,700
- DEF – Cleveland, $3,900
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