Need a break from a narrow fantasy loss, a one-sided rout or all those injuries piling up on a weekly basis? This is the place for you!
Here are 30 of the most interesting facts from around the fantasy football world entering Week 4:
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1. Alvin Kamara is off to a blistering start – and it has been three years since we’ve seen a running back kick off a season so strongly. Kamara is averaging an incredible 31.1 points per game in 1/2 PPR scoring formats – the first RB since Kareem Hunt in 2017 to average 30+ points over the opening three games. Those who overlooked his preseason injury concerns are being rewarded handsomely – and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.
2. If you watched Kamara’s virtuoso performance on Sunday Night Football, you probably know this already – but Kamara has done some ridiculous things once the ball is in his hands. Not only are his 283 yards after the catch more than 100 greater than the next-closest player on the list (Terry McLaurin, 176), he’s more than halfway to the 568 YAC he recorded all of last season. Now fully healthy, Kamara is on track to be the RB1 with a bullet.
3. Speaking of early-season overachievers, here’s the complete list of players since 2012 with more than 100 fantasy points through the first three weeks (PPR scoring):
2015: WR Julio Jones, 102.0
2020: RB Alvin Kamara, 106.8
2020: QB Russell Wilson, 103.0
As the cool kids like to occasionally proclaim on Twitter, that’s it. That’s the list.
Wilson has been absolutely unbelievable so far, averaging better than 308 passing yards per game while racking up 14 touchdowns against just one interception. That 13.6-percent touchdown rate probably won’t hold up, but if you waited at QB and landed Wilson in your drafts, there’s a very good chance you have a top-3 passer the rest of the way.
4. Let’s stick with the quarterback position by sharing just how incredible Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes has been in the month of September over his career:
W/L: 10-0
Completion Rate: 67.6 percent
Passing Yards: 3,304
Touchdowns: 32
Interceptions: 0
Those numbers are absolutely insane – and as you might expect, they become a little less impressive as the calendar flips to October and beyond. Mahomes is an all-world talent, but you might want to consider selling him while his value is at its apex; good quarterbacks are easy to find, and you should unearth one manager who is willing to overpay.
5. From Nick Zylak on Twitter:
Raven’s RB snap shares by week:
Gus: 25%/31%/23%
Dobbins: 39%/31%/43%
Ingram: 36%/42%/32%I don’t see how you could play any of these guys right now
– Nick Zylak (@NickZylakFFA) September 30, 2020
The Ravens’ running back situation is easily one of the most frustrating in the league. Baltimore will finish among the league leaders in rushing yards, but it doesn’t help you from a fantasy perspective if they split the work between three RBs – and the quarterback actually out-rushes them all. Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram are all FLEX-at-best options, and it’s impossible to know which one will thrive from week to week. Ugh.
6. The New York Giants are well on their way to becoming this year’s Miami Dolphins – and not in a good way. Just as the Dolphins struggled on the ground last year, the Giants’ run game has been positively abysmal. Not only does QB Daniel Jones lead the team with 92 rushing yards, he has more than all New York running backs combined: Saquon Barkley, Dion Lewis, Devonta Freeman have just 72 yards on a minuscule 1.8 yards per attempt.
7. Back to Wilson for one more, because he has been so good. Last season, he had the third-worst red-zone completion rate (49.4 percent) among QBs with 50 or more attempts inside the 20. But in 2020, he has gone an incredible 11-for-12 in the red zone with eight touchdowns; it’s the top completion percentage inside the 20 league-wide, and includes a 7-for-7 success rate inside the 10. Russ is COOKING, folks.
8. On the flip side, we can’t say enough about how bad the Giants’ offense has been this season – and while Jones might have his rushing chops going, he has a long way to go to rank among the passing elite. Only fellow New York QB Sam Darnold has a worse success rate inside the 10-yard line, with Jones having gone 3-for-9 with one touchdown pass and an interception. Jones completed 48 percent of his passes inside the 10 last year.
9. Myles Gaskin is thiiiiis close to being an every-week fantasy option. He has seen 38 carries through three weeks – easily the most on the Dolphins – and has added 15 catches for 91 yards, tying him for fourth among running backs. But he just isn’t getting the goal-line work: He has one carry inside the 5-yard line on the season, while fellow Dolphins RB Jordan Howard leads the entire NFL with eight rush attempts inside the 5.
10. That said, perhaps the times are changing as Andrew Erickson suggests on Twitter:
Most carries inside the 10-yard line | Week 3
Derrick Henry – 5 #Titans
Darrell Henderson – 5 #Rams
Myles Gaskin – 4 #Dolphinshttps://t.co/1iQxQH76r0– Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 30, 2020
Howard still got a goal-line tote in the win over the Jaguars – which allowed him to put up a really fun 3-1-1 line – but perhaps we’ll start to see Miami show more confidence in Gaskin, which would move him into every-week RB2 consideration rather than his current status as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 option.
11. This won’t make Tags or Yates very happy, but the Bears have a favorite red-zone receiving target – and his name is Jimmy Graham. The once-elite tight end ranks second in the NFL in targets inside the 20-yard line (seven) and has seen a league-high five targets inside the 10. He’s responsible for more than 57 percent of Chicago’s total red-zone targets – and while it’s unclear if that will continue, it makes him a worthy speculative add.
12. One other way-under-the-radar tight end to consider in Week 4: Bills veteran Tyler Kroft, who came literally out of nowhere to register four catches for 24 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s thrilling victory over the L.A. Rams. All four of Kroft’s receptions came inside the red zone – and while the Bills have five different players with at least three RZ targets on the season, if you need a TD dart throw at zero cost, Kroft might be worth a look.
13. What was the fastest play of Week 3? Besides Devin Duvernay‘s 93-yard kickoff return touchdown in Baltimore’s MNF loss to Kansas City, it was Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup‘s 52-yard reception in Dallas’s 38-31 loss to Seattle. Gallup reached a top speed of 21.2 miles per hour, making it the ninth-fastest play of the season. Gallup got off to a slow start this season, but his talent is undeniable – so hold him, and expect more days like last Sunday.
14. Is Carson Wentz hearing footsteps? If not, he should be. Wentz has been downright terrible through the first three weeks of the season, and few stats highlight his slump more than his completion rate above expectation, which sits at minus-6.4. It’s the third-worst rate in the NFL; No. 1, Dwayne Haskins, will likely be replaced with another bad game, while No. 2 Jeff Driskel has lost the starting role in Denver. Expect Wentz to start feeling the heat soon.
15. One of my favorites, Jacob Gibbs, has a gem on why you should absolutely trust David Johnson this week:
– 95% snap rate in Weeks 2&3 (1st among RB)
– 86% of team RB carries (4th)
– 12 snaps per game lined up in slot/out wide (1st)
– 32 routes run per game (2nd…only 11 TGT is troubling tho)Texans implied for 29 points (-3.5) in a projected shootout against soft Minnesota defense
– Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 29, 2020
Johnson’s target total might concern Jacob, but with no real No. 1 on the team (seven players have between eight and 18 targets), he has as good a chance as any to being the go-to in the passing game. DJ has been a pleasant surprise so far this season relative to draft position, and could be in a smash spot vs. the Vikings.
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16. Nick Chubb managers have to be encouraged by his Week 3 showing – and hope that it portends a future usage trend. Chubb had 19 carries for 104 yards and two TDs, his second straight game with 100+ yards and two TDs. Chubb leads the NFL in yards after contact (205) and YAC/attempt (4.0) and is second in broken tackles (14) – and while the presence of Kareem Hunt caps his upside, it’ll be hard for the Browns to keep Chubb off the field.
17. The Los Angeles Rams’ running back carousel might finally stop spinning, at least in the short term. Darrell Henderson has 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns over his past two games, taking advantage of injuries to Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown to seize a significant workload. His 57.1-percent rush rate above expected is second only to Kareem Hunt, and that could be the precursor to a consistently large workload moving forward.
18. Could this be the year that Tyler Lockett enters the upper echelon of fantasy wide receivers? He’s already well on his way – and that conclusion goes beyond his 24 catches for 259 yards and four touchdowns. Lockett is the only player in the NFL with a targeted air yards share above 32 percent and a catch rate over 80 percent. That combination of consistent role and sticky hands make him an every-week WR1 until further notice.
19. Derrick Henry managers have to love the workload their guy has corraled so far – but can he keep it up? Per PFF guru Ian Hartitz’s weekly running back analysis, Henry is on pace to finish with 437 carries through a 16-game season; no running back has surpassed the 400-carry plateau since Larry Johnson in 2006, and he never played a full season again. Henry is a locked-in every-week RB1, but look for the Titans to spell him more often moving forward.
20. Jon Ledyard shared this nugget on Twitter:
Per Pro Football Focus, Tom Brady has attempted the 5th-most 20+ yard passes among all QBs and has the BEST adjusted completion percentage of all QBs who have attempted at least 10 (3rd best overall).
– Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) September 29, 2020
Tom Terrific isn’t washed yet – and that’s great news for those who took a flier on the 40-something quarterback in the latter stages of their fantasy drafts. But Brady remains a matchups-dependent streaming option, and this week might be a good time to fade him as he faces a stout Los Angeles Chargers defense.
21. Let’s give those Texans skill players a nice little boost, shall we? Houston tangles with the Minnesota Vikings this weekend, and Deshaun Watson and Co. should be able to put points on the board, just like everyone else has done against the Vikings this season. Minnesota has allowed the highest number of opposition drives to end with a score, having done so an incredible 63.6 percent of the time. This could make for a nice fantasy tiebreaker.
22. Now, we focus on the Minnesota skill players (as well as the total for this game, which presently sits at 53.5 or 54 depending on which sportsbook you use. Both teams have struggled to contain opposing teams, having allowed an identical 3.00 points per opposition drive (the worst mark in the league). Neither team should struggle here – so fire up your fantasy options on both sides and confidently consider the Over if you’re betting this one.
23. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are making headlines for other reasons (TB12, for one), but their defense deserves your attention. In addition to boasting the third-lowest scoring rate allowed in the NFL (27.8 percent), opposing teams are averaging just 1.50 points per drive vs. Tampa Bay on the season. If they aren’t already rostered in your league, you should consider the Tampa Bay D/ST as a consistently reliable option for the rest of 2020.
24. Here’s something to chew on from the Rams’ talented pair of wide receivers, who are closer through the first three weeks from a fantasy perspective than you might think. Both players have had exactly 20 touches, and are neck and neck in yards per touch with Woods (13 receptions, seven carries) at 12.8 and Kupp (18 receptions, two carries) at 12.4. Those averages rank inside the top five league-wide, making both players similarly valuable options.
25. This is a real gem from Jody Smith on Twitter:
James Robinson is the real deal
Ranks 12th with a 34% juke rate
10th with 18 evaded tackles
10th in yards created per attempt (2.02)
3rd in RB receiving yards and caught 10-of-11 targets– Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) September 30, 2020
One of the biggest concerns going into the season was Robinson potentially being game-scripted out of action as the running back on a bad Jaguars team. Not only has he seen plenty of action in competitive games, he’s also a major part of the Jacksonville passing game. He’ll remain a locked-in RB2 moving forward.
26. One really weird trend to monitor – the significant drop in offensive holding penalties we’ve seen early in the season. Last season, we saw an average of 2.83 offensive holding calls and 27.25 penalty yards per game, resulting in a ton of great plays (most with fantasy relevance) wiped out. This year? those numbers are all the way down to 1.59 penalties for 15.53 yards per game; if they hold, they’ll be the lowest such averages since 2008.
27. As for defensive pass interference calls, we’re seeing slightly more in 2020 than we did in 2019. NFL games are averaging 1.45 DPI calls for 21.8 penalty yards per outing compared to 1.05 calls for 17.11 yards per game last season. We haven’t seen a DPI yardage average this high since 1999 – so between an increase in those flags and a decrease in the number of offensive holding calls, it’s no wonder we’re seeing so many points scored.
28. And about that: Teams are averaging an incredible 25.6 points through the first three weeks of the regular season, which would shatter the previous high team scoring average by more than two points. If there were a bolder font I could use for that last fact, I absolutely would. Two points! I have no idea whether this trend will continue, but it’s safe to say that this will wind up being one of the highest-scoring fantasy seasons we have ever seen.
29. So where are the majority of the points concentrated? As it turns out, we have two scoring methods on pace to break records in 2020. Teams are averaging 1.78 receiving touchdowns per game, well ahead of the previous mark of 1.65 set in 2018. And let’s give the kickers a little love in this space, as well: Teams have averaged 1.74 made field goals per game, just ahead of the record pace set in 2013 and equaled in 2017.
30. The last word for this week comes courtesy Jarad Evans on Twitter:
Tyler Higbee‘s breakout took off in Week 13 last season. From Weeks 13-17 in 2019, Higbee ran a route on 73% of Jared Goff‘s dropbacks
Higbee’s route run rate this season has fallen off a cliff – he has a route run on just 53% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks
– Jarad Evans (@PFF_Jarad) October 2, 2020
As much as you have to love Kupp and Woods moving forward, it’s quite possible that Higbee has turned back into the guy he was prior to Week 13 – and that’s a matchup-and-game-flow-dependent streaming TE at best.
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