Best NFL Plays for Week 4 at No House Advantage
Week 3 brought us some exciting matchups, but we’ve got even more on tap for Week 4. We’ve got a should-be-shootout between the Saints and Lions, a who-knows-what-to-think between the 0-3 Texans and the 0-3 Vikings, an interesting battle between the Browns and Cowboys, and a gritty defensive matchup between the Chargers and Buccaneers.
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 295-person, $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool will go to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m 15-7 on the NFL after Week 3, which could be better, so I’m looking for a Week 4 rebound.
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Alvin Kamara (NO): OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards (S)
This one is an easy pick for me. Kamara has become the de facto lead receiver in New Orleans after Michael Thomas went down, and he’s earning a ton of looks from Drew Brees. He’s averaging 11.5 targets, 11 catches, and 117 receiving yards in games without Thomas, which is absurd.
NHA likely set this line before it became clear that Thomas wouldn’t play on Sunday. But since he won’t, this play feels like a sure-thing. While Kamara has only cleared this over in 15 of his 48 career games, which might make this read questionable, he’s earned at least 51 receiving yards in every game this year.
He only needs to break one or two big plays off receptions to hit the over. With 11.5 targets per game, Kamara should be able to come through against the Lions.
I’m using the (S) label to indicate a stack, and I’ll use my prediction of the Saints/Lions game script to dictate a few other picks. This game’s projected point total sits at 54, according to the BettingPros consensus odds, and when we account for the spread, New Orleans should score 28.5 to Detriot’s 25.5. That’s a high-scoring game script, and with the Saints’ defensive injuries (Marshon Lattimore, Janoris Jenkins, and Marcus Davenport are all out), the Lions should force them to keep throwing on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford (DET): OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (S)
With the Saints’ banged-up secondary, this line is incredibly exploitable. Stafford is 2-1 against this line on the season, and he went 6-2 against it in 2019. That gives him an 8-3 record against this over since Darrell Bevell, Detroit’s current offensive coordinator, joined the team.
The Saints are also tied for the third-most passing touchdowns surrendered through three games. They’ve allowed eight of them, and that’s likely because their tough defensive front has discouraged teams from attempting goal-line plunges.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Kenny Golladay (DET): OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (S)
I’ll keep the stack rolling here with Golladay. The Lions’ star receiver returned in Week 3 after he suffered a hamstring injury before the season started, and he caught six of his seven targets for 57 yards. His 22.6% target share tied with tight end T.J. Hockenson for the team lead.
Despite an underwhelming performance yardage-wise in Week 3, Golladay should get back on track in Week 4. He went 8-8 against this over in 2019, and he went 8-7 against it in 2018. This line calls for an average game from Golladay in an above-average game script.
Air yards give us another reason to get excited about this pick. Although Golladay tied with Hockenson for the team lead in target share, he controlled 34.4% of Detroit’s air yards to Hockenson’s 29.7%.
Austin Ekeler (LAC): UNDER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
I like Ekeler, but I like the under on this line a lot more. Ekeler scored just three rushing touchdowns in all of 2019, and he’s scored just nine of them in his 49-game career. That’s .18 per game. The numbers don’t improve much when you treat 2019 and 2020 in isolation, either — he’s scored rushing touchdowns only .21 times per game through that span.
Worse, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a stout rushing defense. They’ve allowed three rushing scores to their opponents’ running backs on the season — two to Christian McCaffrey, and one to Alvin Kamara. Tampa Bay has also allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to the position (154).
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Dalvin Cook (MIN): OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards
This line is set a bit high for my tastes, but there are plenty of reasons to favor it here. Cook is 1-2 against the over on the year, which isn’t great, but he went 7-7 against it in 2019. That’s decent, but it’s not good enough to make this a good read.
The Texans’ league-worst rushing defense pushes this pick over the line — Houston has given up 167.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Both James Conner and Clyde Edwards-Helaire earned at least 91 yards against them, and while none of the Ravens’ three running backs did, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram combined for 176 yards on 21 carries.
Dak Prescott (DAL): UNDER 319.5 Passing Yards
Yes, Prescott has thrown for 400-plus yards in consecutive games. I’m expecting that streak to end in Week 4, and you should, too. For starters, the Browns have not allowed a quarterback to clear this total yet — not Lamar Jackson (275), not Joe Burrow (316), and not Dwayne Haskins (224). They’re giving up just 274.7 yards per game to opposing signal-callers (if you’re trying to check my math, RGIII threw a nine-yard pass for the Ravens in Week 1), so Prescott will have to buck the trends to clear the over.
The Browns won’t have starting cornerback Greedy Williams on Sunday, but they haven’t had him since Week 1, anyway. Their other starting corner, Denzel Ward, missed Week 3 and is questionable for Week 4, but I’m optimistic that he’ll play since he at least logged limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday.
Oh, and Prescott only hit this over in six of his 16 starts last year. Having Ezekiel Elliott on your roster will do that.
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