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DFS Pricing Exploitation – Week 6 (2020 Fantasy Football)

DFS Pricing Exploitation – Week 6 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.

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Quarterbacks

Jarrett Stidham (NE) vs DEN $6,900 (+$600)
I believe Cam Newton will be cleared from the news I have been tracking, but even if that isn’t the case, Stidham should be steered away from in all formats. He went 5 for 13 with two interceptions when thrown to the wolves against Kansas City. Expect the Patriots to do Patriots’ things and make heavy use of their running back rotation once again.

Matt Ryan (ATL) at MIN $7,400 (-$300)
Recent performances have Ryan’s stock plummeting. Now undergoing a fresh coaching change with the firing of Dan Quinn, a cloud of uncertainty surrounds this offense going forward. The recent duds will have owners scared, but he gets a very nice matchup against Minnesota’s sixth-worst defense against passing yards. However, the return of Julio Jones is sorely needed, and Todd Gurley vulturing all scoring opportunities recently has hurt his value. This is a situation to monitor and exploit the dip if Julio does indeed return.

Running Backs

Mike Davis (CAR) vs CHI $7,500 (+$700)
Davis’s value has been rising week by week as he continues to perform as a top-10 RB. The Bears are the single best defense against quarterbacks this year, so it would stand to reason that the Panthers’ offense will need to rely on a heavy dose of running back usage. While Vegas odds have it as a lower scoring affair at 44.5 points, the Panthers are still favorites which is another positive for Davis.

Damien Harris (NE) vs DEN $5,600 (+$1,100)
$5,600 is a fair bargain for a player with the potential of Harris. He received 17 touches for 100 yards in his debut, and with Sony Michel sidelined, he will maintain the early-down rushing role. The threat of Cam Newton taking away red-zone work and Harris’s lack of involvement in the receiving game are the downfalls. New England is a 10-point favorite, so expect lots of rushing to be had to pay off at his price.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin (WAS) at NYG $6,900 (+$600)
McLaurin’s price has been bouncing around the last few weeks, as oddsmakers can’t quite pin him down. The Giants’ defense is beyond exceptional as shutting down an opponent’s number 1 wide receiver. They have held the likes of Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, and Amari Cooper all under 10 points this year. McLaurin is that alpha, and they will do everything in their power to shut him down. It may be prudent to look elsewhere.

Chase Claypool (PIT) vs CLE $5,500 (+$600)
A massive four touchdown week only put Claypool’s price up $600. The likely reason being they have a multitude of other wide receivers that could explode on any matchup. Four touchdowns will almost certainly never come close to happening again, but it speaks volumes to how much Ben trusts him. The Browns have a very beatable secondary, so it’ll be interesting to see who they try to eliminate. Claypool is a textbook gamble at his price, albeit a good matchup.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz (PHI) $6,000 vs BAL (-$500)
What is the allure of Ertz right now? He has gone under 20 yards receiving in three out of five games and gets one of the top defenses in the league with the Ravens. The lone bright spot is the Eagles will be forced to pass, and have very few alternative options, even though the same could be said for his dud weeks. There are better options at tight end.

Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.

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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.

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