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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (10/12)

Oct 12, 2020

Charlie Morton has been an AL Cy Young candidate ever since joining the Rays.

With only four teams remaining in the MLB Playoffs, that means MLB DFS is coming to a close. This is actually going to be one of my final articles of the year and I’ve loved giving you guys advice in this truncated season. All of that means we have about two weeks of action left which is exciting considering how much uncertainty we had two months ago. So, with all that in mind, let’s break down these American League and National League Championship Series’!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Lance McCullers (HOU) vs. TB $7,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Charlie Morton (TB) vs. HOU $7,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • McCullers has one of the best K rates among starters in the league and that’s great news against a Rays club who sat 29th in strikeout rate this season. While he did struggle in his one postseason start, McCullers still generated a 0.00 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 rate over his final three starts of the regular season.
  • Morton has been an AL Cy Young candidate ever since joining the Rays and it’s a wonder why he’s the cheapest pitcher on the board. Since 2017, Morton has a 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 9.9 K.9 rate.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Freddie Freeman (ATL) vs. LAD $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ji-Man Choi (TB) vs. HOU $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
 Will Smith (LAD) vs. ATL $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Freeman is always one of the best plays on the board and we’ll discuss why later.
  • Choi has an OPS north of .800 against right-handers since 2017 and that makes him too cheap below $4K.
  • Smith is my favorite catching option on the board, picking up five hits in his most recent outing while getting the platoon advantage against Max Fried.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brandon Lowe (TB) vs. HOU $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Chris Taylor (LAD) vs. ATL $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Lowe was the Rays best player in the regular season with an OPS north of .900 and it’s hard to understand why his price has seen such a drastic drop.
  • Taylor has killed lefties throughout his career and it should put him in the heart of his potent Dodgers lineup.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Bregman (HOU) vs. TB $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Justin Turner (LAD) vs. ATL $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
  • Bregman is one of the best postseason performers around and he’s always a great pick with such limited options available.
  • Turner is yet another Dodgers righty we like. Since 2018, Turner has a .395 OBP and .950 OPS against left-handers.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Corey Seager (LAD) vs. ATL $4,900 ⭐⭐ Low
Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. TB $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Seager has been crushing it for the Dodgers recently, averaging 11.6 DK points per game across his last five fixtures.
  • Speaking of hot, Correa has been killing it recently. Over his last seven games played, Correa is averaging over 17 fantasy points per game.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
A.J. Pollock (LAD) vs. ATL $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Michael Brantley (HOU) vs. TB $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Enrique Hernandez (LAD) vs. ATL $3,400 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Let’s keep the Dodgers righties rolling with Pollock. He actually had the best splits on the team, totaling a .345 BA, .818 SLG, and 1.185 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season.
  • Brantley is always way too cheap on DraftKings and he’s easily one of the best options on the Astros considering he’s one of their only lefty bats.
  • Hernandez typically finds his way into LA’s lineup against a southpaw and he could be one of the best values out there below $3,500.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Mookie Betts, LAD ($5,200): Betts is the highest-priced hitter on the board and rightfully so. Not only is he arguably the best all-around player in the game with his 11.1 DK points per outing, he also gets the platoon advantage against Fried here.
  • Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4,900): Freeman has been the best hitter in baseball for the last two months. In fact, he has a .490 OBP, .721 SLG and 1.211 OPS over his last 47 games played. We also love that he gets the platoon advantage against an untrustworthy Walker Buehler.
  • Randy Arozarena, TB ($4,500): I had never heard of this guy a month ago but he’s truly been one of the best players in the postseason. After homering in Game 1 on Sunday, he’s now averaging 14 DraftKings points per game across his last nine outings.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Walker Buehler, LAD ($8,500): Buehler is the highest-priced pitcher on the board and that simply makes no sense. While he might be the most talented arm available, we’re talking about a guy who hasn’t thrown more than four innings in four-straight starts. That’s scary against one of the hottest offenses in the league and we simply can’t trust that he’ll pick up a quality start with such a limited workload.
  • Jose Altuve, HOU ($4,700): Altuve just had the worst season of his career and we certainly can’t trust him against a talented righty like Charlie Morton. His final strikeout on Sunday is indicative of how he looks at the plate right now.
  • Cody Bellinger, LAD ($4,700): Speaking of bad seasons, Bellinger was a huge disappointment this year. After taking MVP honors last season, he posted a .597 OPS against southpaws this year and has looked lost at the plate.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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